Nothing Unusual Here. Nothing At All.

"SBA Thanks You For All The Fish" (santabarbarianlsx)
08/31/2020 at 14:21 • Filed to: None

I think my favorite number here is a TRAILING P/E (typically “20" for industrial, manufacturing stocks) of well over 1200. Normal, just Super-Giga-Normal.

DISCUSSION (27)

This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja: > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 14:27

IDK what is going on here, but sell and sell right now. Probably. Like I said...

someassemblyrequired > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 14:27

I’m stockpiling popcorn for when the music stops

For Sweden > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 14:30

stonks.png

ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable) > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 14:31

What company?

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > someassemblyrequired
08/31/2020 at 14:34

I’m sincerely worried that, when the bubble pops, it really could spill over into panic selling in the broader markets.

notsomethingstructural > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 14:38

Most investors are treating it as an outlier and I don’t think even a significant (~25-50%) change in valuation will change anyone’s mind. Bulls think the upside is there but its exceeding short-term targets, bears are short and have been for some time. I think a lot of people aren’t looking to participate in it, and a lot of others won’t sell in a dip. It might pop but I don’t see any spillover like the dot-com years where it fundamentally challenged how tech companies are valued.

Aremmes > ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable)
08/31/2020 at 14:38

TSLA

BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 14:44

Retail investors are really fucking with the stock market. Commission-free trades are one of these things that sound like a good idea in theory, but have catastrophic effects in practice.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > notsomethingstructural
08/31/2020 at 14:59

Maybe, but I was shocked to see how much institutional money had piled into Uber and Lyft. If Tesla gets knocked down a peg or twenty? I think portfolio managers are going to look hard at other unicorns they hold...

It could set off a wave of selling.

In theory the LTCM meltdown started with one class of Russian debt... Then the contagion grew.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind
08/31/2020 at 15:01

The bizarre thing— as seen on a couple of previous “corrections” in TSLA— is that the big fund holders always seem to know more about what’s coming than the retail “investor”. That last big drop into the sub 200s? There was an immense amount of institutional selling in the week prior to that announce ment.

It’s always the small investors left holding Le Bag.

MM54 > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 15:23

When I get my time machine working, after I buy that bitcoin in 2007 I passed on and sell half of it when it hit 20k a couple years ago, I may stop by late 2019 to put that money into TSLA.

PatBateman > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 15:23

[This rant redacted due to this FINRA rule ]

tl;dr I have nothing to add (that I’m allowed to add) that you haven’t already said.

facw > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 15:24

Well the inv estors are clearly looking at it as a growth stock, so it’s not surprising its P/E is way out of line with established industrial stocks. That said, their market cap is like 2.5x Toyota’s (which is already vastly more than other big players like VAG, GM, Ford, etc.) so you wonder how big people think Tesla can grow? It’s not like they are going to have the electric market all to themselves, and most analyses put their self-driving tech significantly behind other players in that space.

Is this just retail investors? Honestly it doesn’t seem like there are enough of them to move it this much (especially since I would hope most of them aren’t just throwing everything at Tesla). I suppose right now the price is high, so you can’t blame anyone for owning, but someone’s going to be in bad shape when the music stops.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > facw
08/31/2020 at 15:36

I’m curious what the make-up of ownership is today. I assume a lot of big funds have piled into it now that it’s “legit’.

Certainly there’s the “perception” of fast-track growth, but the slowdown actually began long b efore COVID hit...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > facw
08/31/2020 at 16:03

By the way, on the “oh it’s a monster growth story front”??

This is what the last few quarters of unit-deliveries look like. I’m still squinting to discern the “monster growth story” in here...

Kinja'd!!!

facw > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 16:17

Well obviously the monster growth is coming in the future, or the P/E would look less stupid...

But yeah, I’ve got no idea where people think that growth will come from. The automotive market place is very competitive, so even if Telsa does well they aren’t going to have a huge share of the market. Tesla has positioned itself as a luxury brand (5th best-selling in the US after Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, and Audi), but is being valued as being worth more than $100B more than all those luxury brands (and their parent companies!) put together. And it’s not like Tesla has any special sauce that allows them to be significantly more profitable building these cars, they have just been more aggressive, but you can be sure other brands will challenge them, both at the high and low end if their market share continues to (slowly) grow.

WilliamsSW > BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind
08/31/2020 at 16:46

Also everyone should be able to trade on margin because that will enable everyone to make lots of money. It’s only fair.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 17:18

I’m generally a fan of Tesla (not Elon) and what they are doing, but I don’t get the hype over the stock price. I think it’s waaaay overvalued for what it is. I think at this point it’s more of an emotional (than logical) purchase. It’s not going to stay that high forever, and someone is going to be left holding the bag, as others have said. And it isn’t going to pretty.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 17:20

And for a high-growth tech that is growing the way Tesla is , a normal PE would be around 100-200... not 1200+.

Even though I’m a fan of Tesla, the share price is ‘ left-our-solar-system’ high.

It reminds me of the dot com boom.

I suspect pure momentum day traders are what’s driving the price now.

Or it’s one hell of a short squeeze.

Or it’s in anticipation of how sales will increase in the coming year after the Berlin plant is online and how Tesla develops the plant in China... not to mention the new plant they are working on in Texas

https://www.thedrive.com/tech/35357/construction-for-teslas-massive-texas-gigafactory-is-well-underway

Once these plants get built, it will lead to an increase in sales, but I don’t believe it will be an increase that justifies the current share price.

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > PatBateman
08/31/2020 at 17:22

“tl;dr I have nothing to add (that I’m allowed to add) that you haven’t already said.”

OBVIOUSLY your original rant was about how TSLA shares weren’t high enough!!!

:-p

someassemblyrequired > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 19:52

Yeah, I’m mostly out at this point. I might miss out, but I like sleeping at night.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > someassemblyrequired
08/31/2020 at 20:02

The damn thing ran up another $50 tonight AFTER THE CLOSE. It’s nutty. It will burst at some point.

notsomethingstructural > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 21:00

Uber and Lyft absolutely do not belong in the same tier as Tesla. Not in a million years. 2021 Tesla is 2020 Uber/Lyft on the upside, and 2021 Tesla is 2020 WeWork on the downside. There’s already been significant institutional pullback on rideshare so I think that’s baked out of the equation a bit

someassemblyrequired > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 21:18

gonna make ‘87 look like a field day

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > notsomethingstructural
08/31/2020 at 21:20

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

Heh. I may need to use that...

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > someassemblyrequired
08/31/2020 at 21:21

All those orders that day were still processed by hand— the brokers’ clerks couldn’t clear the trades fast enough. EVERYBODY wanted out right now.

I don’t even remember what the trigger was? Some butterfly coughed in Burma I think... Made a hurricane in Jersey City

notsomethingstructural > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
08/31/2020 at 21:31

spread the love baby