I've tried to justify the purchase of an electric car. So far I cant.

"LJ909" (lj909) 08/26/2020 at 13:33 • Filed to: EV, Electric Vehicles

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With me wanting to get another car eventually, I’ve started shopping around here and there. I’ve started looking at EV’s. The Model 3 has honestly piqued my interest, but I didn’t just want to consider Tesla, so I looked at every entry on the market. Nothing has stood out so far.

I don’t know if my situation is unique or not, but I drive, a lot. That’s by nature of me being always on the go and living in Southern California. I don’t think the rest of the county realizes how much people drive here. Which brings me to one of the reasons why nothing has interested me: nothing has enough range for me. But its more than just range.

Most EV’s on the market currently can be broken down into 2 categories:

Mass market: which includes entries like the Bolt and Leaf. Pricing is in the high $30s, low $40’s. Tax credits help, but not by much. Used they are cheap. Often under $15k.

High end: Entries like pretty much all of Tesla, E-Tron, coming players like Rivian etc. Literally the rest of the market.

And within those 2 categories are various plug in hybrids that cover both of those. The problem though is that the choices from those categories are something specific and almost niche like, or don’t make much sense at all for me.

The models that are supposed to be for the masses are pretty much compact. For me to get a Bolt for instance would be like me buying another Sonic. Same thing with the Leaf, which isn’t that much bigger than the old Versa Note. I still don’t get why I cant get a nicely priced EV that’s a roomy family sedan. Makes no sense. Other EV’s from mainstream auto makers are, like I pointed out, one thing or the other: a compact (BMW i3, Hyundai Ioniq Electric, VW Golf EV, etc), an oddly styled crossover (Hyundai Kona EV, Kia Niro EV, Volvo XC40 EV, etc), from a mass market maker but is expensive (Ford Mustang Mach-E), or is just luxury/expensive.

At the other end of the market, Tesla and the bulk of the market cater to the well off. People that have little concern about fuel savings and more about the perception of being seen driving an EV or a Tesla.

The only Tesla that I could afford right now is the thirty something thousand dollar Model 3. This is the model that Tesla said was going to bring EV’s to the masses. The problem though is that it doesn’t exist. At least not in current inventories. You can go on Tesla’s site right now and custom order a standard 250 mile range Model 3. Its starts at $37,990. Looks cheap right? Its not. Tesla tries to be slick and presents the vehicle’s price to you with discounts of tax credits (which, here in California, are only $2k) and potential gas savings. So that $37,990 price includes a discount of $2k and gas savings of $4,300. So the Model 3 really starts over $40k.

And that’s it. The rest of the market is either something I don’t want due to constraints (not enough range, type of vehicle, price). So for the most part I don’t even consider the entirety of the market.

But, as was pointed out on Jalopnik recently, Model 3’s hold their value. I can’t find any Model 3’s for that price new or used. And there are none for sale CPO through Tesla used. Used prices all seem to hover around $40-41k and go up from there. And with Tesla pretty much catering to the well heeled EV buyer, its a no from me on Tesla based on price alone. So far the only other EV that has actually appealed to me is the Lucid Air. It has the range I would want, and its a looker and an actual sedan. But with its claimed $60k starting price, that’s way out of what I could afford. So it looks like until I can get 450 miles of range for under $35k (WITHOUT INCENTIVES), I’ll be sticking to ICE vehicles.

My bird IS the word > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:07

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At least the market seems to be headed in the direction to satisfy your needs. Wonder how long it will take. Another 5 years? 10?

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:09

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I don’t know if there are crazy deals now but my neighbor got two Niros last week , two different colors thankfully. I know the woman works for Restoration H ardware, the headquarters is around here. She had a ten year old Corolla S before. I expect the EV market to really take off, phase in like anything new, it is becoming pretty mainstream. I can’t really do it unless my condo complex installs the infrastructure . 

E90M3 > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:09

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If I had a house and a place to charge it, I’d get one. Maintenance free car and use the M3 for longer trips.

BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:11

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And like I posted on the FP Morning Shift, automakers like Chevy then cry that nobody’s buying their electric cars. Because they’re not making cars people want!

I agree, would love to have something plug-in, and could probably deal with 240-300 miles of range (though I frequently make 375 mile one-way trips). But there’s just nothing I’d want to do that in. 

DucST3-Red-1Liter-Standing-By > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:15

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How far do you drive on a daily basis?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:16

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I’ve been leaning more and more towards a Volt as my next car. The plug-in hybrid makes sense for me, I have a short commute that would be able to completely be done on electric and then have the gas range extending ability for longer trips. Plus they can be had for under $20k.

phenotyp > E90M3 08/26/2020 at 14:18

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“Maintenance free”

Lol

Neil drives a beetle and a fancy beetle > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:18

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I think this is the space where the BMW I4 is meant to really live. Who knows when it will get here and what the price will be. I think Audi dropped the ball by having the Etron be as expensive as it is.

facw > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:18

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For starters I would not recommend replacing the engines on your plane with EVs!

Beyond that, it’s totally reasonable, EV’s are definitely not for everyone right now. Some of that is because drivers don’ t bear the full cost of their emissions, but issues of cost, range, and charging infrastructure are all real. Things should keep getting better though.

Danimalk - Drives a Slow Car Fast > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:19

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I feel pretty much the same way. I’ m not going to be buying a new car anytime soon, I will go used for sure, but I am starting to keep an eye on the EV market and pretty much came to the same conclusion as you.

Either it’s cheap (for the segment) and I don’ t want it, or I want it, but it feels overpriced.

If I had to buy something right now, I would be looking at used Volts (or ELRs) but those body styles wont work for everyone and technically aren’t really competition to your examples .

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:24

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Used Model 3s go for 40k? Fuck it, that’s first gen Dodge Viper RT10 money.

LJ909 > My bird IS the word 08/26/2020 at 14:36

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I’m thinking 8. But thats a big maybe.

LJ909 > 415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) 08/26/2020 at 14:43

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I think the taking off is an illusion that’ s pushed by the automakers. They are struggling to normalize EV’s in a market that, for the most part is largely not accepting /ignoring it. Automakers should keep coming with models sure, mostly for the masses, but there’ s still no proper infrastructure investment, and Tesla is pretty much the entirety of the market. That’ s not good.

E90M3 > phenotyp 08/26/2020 at 14:46

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Still less maintenance than my 328i.

LJ909 > BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind 08/26/2020 at 14:48

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And I still don’ t get why they don’ t realize this. Hell even EV crossovers would get the sales up but they still haven’ t even done that.

LJ909 > DucST3-Red-1Liter-Standing-By 08/26/2020 at 14:53

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My last commute was 53 miles each way. And that’ s not including the miles running errands and everything else. Let me put it to you this way. I just bought my car brand new 2 years ago. I just passed 100k miles on it yesterday.

LJ909 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 08/26/2020 at 14:55

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I’ ve been kind of leaning that way too, towards plug in’s. But even then it would probably be used. Most of the plug in’s on the market are premium.

notsomethingstructural > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 14:57

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I assure you no one in the rest of the country has any misconceptions about how much people in southern  California drive because by and large it’s all they talk about. SNL has even made sketches about this phenomena. 

DucST3-Red-1Liter-Standing-By > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 15:00

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Damn, that’ s a far few miles for sure. If you did find something that would work, I would imagine your savings on maintenance would be insane. Something used with ~200 miles of range would probably work. EV’s depreciate like a boulder off a cliff. Got my 500e 3 years old with 34K on it for $6,500, new msrp was something like $30K

SiennaMan > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 15:10

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That feels about right to me. I think something like an electric rav4/crv/escape with 25 0+ mile range is what is needed to get the market moving (not that such tings would solve your or my desires for a next vehicle..)

Merkin Muffley > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 15:24

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This is a great summary.

It’s also the reason EV sales in developed markets have stalled. All the “look how green I am” people have three Tesla’s in the garage and a TMY on order.

Everybody else runs the numbers, looks at the constraints and concludes, correctly, “this is crazy. I should just go buy a Camry/hybrid.”

It will be stalled like this until the next big breakthrough comes. Don’t hold your breath

LJ909 > Neil drives a beetle and a fancy beetle 08/26/2020 at 15:39

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The ETron is pretty much a failure at this point. 

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > 415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) 08/26/2020 at 15:41

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Same. If my apartment puts in chargers, I will try and move the earth and sky to get into a Rivian.

LJ909 > Danimalk - Drives a Slow Car Fast 08/26/2020 at 15:41

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The Volt could work because it’s a plug in. But even then, that plus of it being not a full ev is negated toe by the fact that it’s pretty much a compact car. Same thing with the ELR. Beautiful car. And they have finally gotten cheap. But it’s a damn swoopy coupe. And if I wanted something like that, it wouldn’t be an ev. 

LJ909 > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 08/26/2020 at 15:44

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Yep. I did a quick search and of the 600 used Model 3’s I found for sale nationwide, only 8 where in the $30k range. That’s crazy. 

LJ909 > notsomethingstructural 08/26/2020 at 15:46

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True. But there is misconception about everyone’s driving needs being different. Every time someone complains about an ev not having enough range, people on here pretty much mock them and make generalizations about “Do you really need that much range?” That’s what irks me. 

LJ909 > DucST3-Red-1Liter-Standing-By 08/26/2020 at 15:48

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Eh it’d probably be the same. My car has been pretty much bulletproof since I bought it. I’ve only changed brakes tires and oil. Nothing else has gone wrong. The sweet spot for me would be at least 375-400 miles of range. But it would have to be in something that’s not compact. 

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 15:48

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Damn that’s crazy

Mid Engine > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 15:50

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I hav e the opp osite scenario to you, I barely drive anywhere. In normal times, maybe 250 miles a week. Most tech companies in Seattle are WFH and likely will continue to do so until there’s an effective treatment to the virus , so there’s really no reason to hop in your car. And yet, we have a Tacoma, Cayman, and Miata. I dri ve my lawn tractor more often.

I think I’m the wrong demographic for EV, I like small sports cars. Also, you can save money having an electric but the delta in price between EV and ICE vehicles is considerable. I don’t think I’d save any money, probably cost me a lot more.

LJ909 > Merkin Muffley 08/26/2020 at 15:51

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This is the reality people don’t want to face. I’ve pointed out before: Tesla is the enterity of the market. That’s not good for both the market and consumers. No one really wants anything else because they’ve sold it on brands cache first, and being an EV second. They have repeat buyers and buyers that are already owners just trading up to something new when they release it. I think the Model 3 alone outsells all other models on the market combined. That’s insane. 

LJ909 > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 08/26/2020 at 15:53

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Damn. If only. I could never justify this to my girl. Hell even my mom would get mad at me for this. 

LJ909 > Mid Engine 08/26/2020 at 15:56

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Yea it’d make no sense for you. You’d have one just to have it. Keep buying those sporty cars. You’re lucky. Unless they come out with something sporty and electric that isn’t crazy expensive. But I don’t see that happening within our lifetimes. 

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 15:58

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Tesla Model 3s are holding value now, but they’re going to depreciate. And batteries will fail, and that’s expensive. If you look at Viper price trends, they aren’t gonna get any cheaper, and the only thing that’ll make it depreciate is tota ling it out. Buy the Viper. It’s an investment for your future. Gas isn’t that expensive, and they’re fine in the winter as long as you don’t push it. Do it. Buy the Dodge.

phenotyp > E90M3 08/26/2020 at 16:05

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This is true. And a hell of a lot less that my E60s.

bison78 > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 08/26/2020 at 16:33

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And batteries will fail

Yo u know this how?

bison78 > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 16:36

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No one really wants anything els e because they’ve sold it on brands cache first, and being an EV second.

Probably because, while Leaf batteries lose capacity quickly, Tesla batteries have been shown to last very well, while they claim that the motors have been tested to 1M miles. Tesla does not make you waste money on unnecessary servicing, etc..

The reason people buy Teslas instead of other EVs is that they offer better value.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 16:51

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The economics don’t entirely make sense - yet. Unless you are willing to buy used, and take a hit on the range. For example, I’ve been keeping my eye on used Bolt prices, and they routinely show up for $17k, sometimes as low as $15k. And that’s for a supposed 238 mile range. I have yet to spot a Tesla (that isn’t a total wreck) for that kind of price.

You are right. There seems to be a limited selection of body styles and sizes to choose from. I think part of the reason is the range. Larger vehicle = more wind resistance = lower range (unless you compensate with a larger battery pack, which increases the cost, and the weight ). The e-Tron and i-Pace, and a bunch of the other newcomers still don’t have the track-record with pushing batteries that hard, so are playing it conservative with the buffers. They also don’t have the same efficiencies as Tesla.  So for the same sized pack, they are getting a lower range.  And they have also followed Tesla in going after the high end of the market first, as that’s where there’s more likely to be a heftier profit margin.  You don’t need to sell as many to break even (after all the R&D), and you don’t run as much of a risk of running out of batteries from your suppliers if you were try to produce a ton of vehicles with a lower margin.

Give it a bit more time. They’ll get there.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 16:54

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I keep saying they should slap some plastic body cladding on the Bolt, jack it up a bit, and sell it as a Buick.  I bet people would eat it up, just like they have the Buick Encore.

camarov6rs > Mid Engine 08/26/2020 at 17:35

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I would think you would be an excellent target for a used Bolt. Given they can be had under $20k in great shape I would think that could be “cheap enough” and since you seem to be able to have multiple vehicles you wouldn’t care too much about the range or charge infrastructure.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > bison78 08/26/2020 at 18:15

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They do that, it’s just what rechargable batteries do. And I know ICEs fail too, but I’m just trying to convince a stranger to buy a Viper. 

Merkin Muffley > LJ909 08/26/2020 at 18:44

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There’s an old adage in B-school that “single brand markets” aren’t actually viable markets. The lack of profit and the 90+% share tied to one brand? None of it is good for market expansion... despite the Tesla fans claiming that it shows how far ahead of everybody else Tesla is.

Sony was like that with Beta. For awhile. Healthy consumer markets have new entrants picking up share and growing the pie. Which ain’t happening here...

bison78 > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 08/26/2020 at 19:31

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They do that, it’s just what rechargable batteries do.

Not all batteries are the same. There are plenty of studies that show very limited capacity loss by Tesla batteries, as long as they are not abused.