[politics] Rust Belt

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 08/06/2020 at 15:55 • Filed to: None

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Specifically, Pennsylvania, Michigan & Wisconsin. Three months out, Biden seems to have the edge (8-10% lead in all three); what would have to happen for these to swing back to Trump?

If Biden does win these three, does Trump have any real path to winning?

(Clearly, Ohio is also very much in play - for this exercise, lets just assume it falls to Trump again.)

2016:

2016, by county:

270 To Win’s “consensus” map for 2020:

Recent polls:

I feel for all y’all living in any battleground state these next few months...

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 15:46

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Sometimes I wish I lived in a battleground state, because then my vote would be more important.

Then I remember how horrible all the campaign ads and crap are, and I'm glad my state is the only solid blue state for 600 miles in any direction.  

LimitedTimeOnly @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:03

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The ads in the Charlotte media market are horrible already, and I’m sure that it will get worse. Although I fast forward through ads , I’m still DVRing stuff on cable and have to see some of the warped junk.

Under_Score > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:06

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Just remember 2016. Don’t trust polls that show Biden or Trump leading.

We’ll just see the night of November 3. Even that’s a mystery.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 08/06/2020 at 16:07

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I live within the largest contiguous area of red in the continental U.S. (based on the 2016 county map):

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Under_Score 08/06/2020 at 16:10

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Yes, for sure. But hopefully they’ve corrected some issues with their methodology since then.

Considering all of the mail-in voting this year , I don’t expect to know the final result for weeks after.

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > WilliamsSW 08/06/2020 at 16:11

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I wouldn’t want to live around people conflicted about the choice we have this year. In Hawaii I always knew which way the vote would go, and that it wouldn’t matter at all. In CA I know which way it will go and CA has a huge chunk of the pie so I can only do what I can. 

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:11

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It sucks if you’re blue and living in a red state or vice versa, but at least you don’t get pestered as much.

Illinois is funny - in presidential elections, we are hard blue, but we elect (and then later indict and convict) governors from either party.  Regardless of party, you can count on corruption from Illinois government at least. 

Future next gen S2000 owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:12

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If Biden does win these three, does Trump have any real path to winning?

Not that I can see but I was surpr ised in 2016. I did figure it out before my classmates did. The look of dejection on their face as the results set in  was astounding.

Under_Score > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:15

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Political races have been so controversial since the 2016 election that every race feels like the results take a while.

I think this happened with the Florida Governor race in 2018.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Future next gen S2000 owner 08/06/2020 at 16:17

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Oh, I remember seeing the shock/horror/confusion on the CNN analysts faces that night, as they realized what was happening. Everyone was convinced Hillary had it locked up.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 08/06/2020 at 16:18

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My brother LOVES paying your state’s taxes.

Under_Score > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:19

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“Locked Up”



WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:21

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So much of it is absolutely wasted, too...

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:24

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I followed 538 religiously back then,  and I recall a lot of people bitching and moaning that they were biased, because they gave Trump a punchers chance.  A close friend of mine was absolutely convinced he had 0 chance, and I keep saying no, no, no...

nermal > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:26

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Seems familiar....

My prediciton: Biden picks Kamala as VP, loses key demographics as a result . Trump wins close election with ~280 electoral votes. 4 more years of winning!

TX goes blue in 2024 due to all of companies and their liberal weenie employees mov ing there from CA. Whoever the Ds nominate will win despite their best efforts otherwise. Taxes go up. Next one is an R. Rinse & repeat until Barron is old enough to run .

BigBlock440 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:26

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I’d say Biden would have to start campaigning and talking to start to sway the vote. The longer he stays out of the public’s eye, the longer he’ll lead.

I’m tired of hearing the same damn ad on the radio every time I’m in the car though. And I only have a 20 minute drive, but there it is. I guess nobody’s really advertising these days so airspace is probably pretty cheap.

If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:27

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I like how my state hasn't got a single red county

DipodomysDeserti > WilliamsSW 08/06/2020 at 16:28

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Apparently I live in a battleground state, but I haven’t noticed any difference. I also don’t have television.

WilliamsSW > BigBlock440 08/06/2020 at 16:29

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Sadly accurate 

WilliamsSW > DipodomysDeserti 08/06/2020 at 16:30

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Wise choice.  

marshknute > Under_Score 08/06/2020 at 16:30

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Keep in mind the polls weren’t wrong, per se, in 2016 . They pretty consistently showed a 3% advantage for Hillary, which was reflected in the popular vote.

And my own 2 cents: I don’t think this years election will be another shocking upset. Trump didn’t win in 2016, Hillary lost. Trump “won” with fewer votes than Romney lost by in the 2012 election. Both candidates were actively hated by voters, and Hillary just happened to piss off more people in key states than Trump did .

This time around, everybody still hates Trump, but n obody hates Biden. Yes, they’re hella apathetic towards him, but I think apathy is less detrimental to Biden than voter’s outright hatred for Trump .

E90M3 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:31

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SC is a battle ground state? Great, must be why the democratic party keeps sending me things in the mail. I’m not a registered democrat. 

WilliamsSW > 415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) 08/06/2020 at 16:33

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I can't imagine many people are conflicted at this point, I think it's more a matter of getting their supporters to vote.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Under_Score 08/06/2020 at 16:33

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Pun unintended. =)

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > WilliamsSW 08/06/2020 at 16:35

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I guess what I mean is, living near Drumpf supporters. None around where I live, go up north more and they multiply I think. I’ve seen some boomers with little stickers on their expensive cars. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > WilliamsSW 08/06/2020 at 16:36

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A puncher’s chance, but only that. They missed the mark, too.

But Hillary’s own pollsters/strategists got it the wrongest...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > E90M3 08/06/2020 at 16:37

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Shows pretty solid red on the map, but that state poll looks closer than that.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent 08/06/2020 at 16:38

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My state is the complete opposite...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > BigBlock440 08/06/2020 at 16:39

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Was thinking the same thing. The less he talks, the better he’s likely to do.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > nermal 08/06/2020 at 16:41

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My prediciton: Biden picks Kamala as VP, loses key demographics as a result.

Ug, why is this true? Not liberal enough for the liberals, too liberal for the moderates. 

For Sweden > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:42

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How many David Tracy Dads actually vote though?

E90M3 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:42

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I hadn’t realized that. I assumed it was solidly red.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > nermal 08/06/2020 at 16:42

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There’s zero point looking at national polls before an election based on state electors - that was the mistake far too many made in 2016.

It will be very interesting to see how things shift after he picks a VP.

The guy who picked them all right (including Trump) since the ‘80s has picked Biden to win. We’ll see if his streak holds up.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > For Sweden 08/06/2020 at 16:44

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Too busy waiting to let that penetrating oil soak in...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > E90M3 08/06/2020 at 16:45

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Probably will still fall that way.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/south-carolina/

WilliamsSW > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 16:55

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Holy fuck did her strategists fuck that up.

avalonian > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 17:11

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, well done sir.

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 18:10

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The path for Biden to win these states is to drive massive black turnout in Milwaukee, Detroit & Philadelphia. I’ve been preaching this since the primaries--whoever the nominee was, that was the #1 most important thing they needed to do. 

Manwich - now Keto-Friendly > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 18:47

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It’s possible that not only might Trump lose, but the Republicans might also lose control of the Senate as well.... the Senate race is CLOSE

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

I check this site every so often and sometimes I’ve seen the Senate numbers tied.

But still, I like to remind people that the only poll that matters is the poll on election day... and it’s important to not get your hopes up regardless of which political side you favour.

Cash Rewards > Under_Score 08/06/2020 at 18:49

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I'll believe Trump is out of office when it physically happens at an inauguration, and not a day before.

Cash Rewards > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 18:50

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And then Trump's own protests will start.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Textured Soy Protein 08/06/2020 at 19:08

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So, which VP choice will get him that?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Manwich - now Keto-Friendly 08/06/2020 at 19:09

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Yup: turnout, turnout, turnout. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Cash Rewards 08/06/2020 at 19:12

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And see, I’m hoping it becomes so clear he’s going to loose by a historic landslide that he’ll just resign a couple weeks before the election, so he won’t forever be labeled a “LOSER”. 

Cash Rewards > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/06/2020 at 20:10

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One can only hope

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Cash Rewards 08/06/2020 at 20:45

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https://www.msnbc.com/mtp-daily/watch/nbc-news-unveils-its-first-2020-battleground-electoral-map-today-89670725707

Mercedes Streeter > marshknute 08/07/2020 at 09:42

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... but nobody hates Biden 

I agree with your overall point, but Biden very much does have camps of people who don’t like him.

You have women, who don’t like how he’s all inappropriately touchy feely with every woman (including kissing his granddaughter on the lips ), further left progressives, who feel he’s no better than Clinton or Obama, and those who feel he’s too old and of a failing mental state.

That said, I do think there are fewer people who hate Biden than there were/are people who hate Clinton.

Mercedes Streeter > WilliamsSW 08/07/2020 at 09:45

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Even more funny, our governors are also largely similar no matter their party affiliation. I loved how Illinois’ far right politicians ran their campaigns on the message that Rauner just wasn’t hateful enough. smh

Of course, Pritzker then rolled in and is...doing whatever he’s doing.

Mercedes Streeter > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/07/2020 at 09:49

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Wisconsin edges more liberal with each passing day. There was a time not too long ago where my birth state was the home of headlines like a school making LGBT students wear specific bracelets (for reasons), student self-harm due to bullying, and much much darker news.

But things are getting better and I hope that extends to the election.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Mercedes Streeter 08/07/2020 at 09:56

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Let’s hope; it’s past time for the orange one to go. 

WilliamsSW > Mercedes Streeter 08/07/2020 at 10:05

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God I hate that woman. She is a POS.

Pritzker is handling Covid OK, I think.   If he's doing anything else at all,  I'm not aware of it. 

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/07/2020 at 10:13

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I don’t think the VP choice will really move the needle with turnout. The biggest thing I’ve learned from talking to black people about politics is they’re not nearly as reliable as a constituency as establishment democrats assume them to be.

While many black people are very politically engaged, a huge number of them are completely disillusioned with the political system overall and feel like society is so stacked against them that there’s no point in voting. Meanwhile, d emocrats tend to assume that just because their policies align with black people’s interes ts, and many republicans are on a spectrum from indifferent to outright racist, that black people will decide for themselves to vote for democrats.

What democrats need to do is consistent, coordinated outreach to the black community, say they want to help, ask questions about their concerns and how to address them, commit to working to improve their situation, ask for their votes, and help them with actually voting . Hell, I’m no political operative, and all I needed to do to learn this was to talk to black people and listen to their concerns.

WilliamsSW > Mercedes Streeter 08/07/2020 at 10:15

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 Oh and I just remembered that psycho is running for Congress in my district.   A district that leans Republican, BUT was won by Kasich in the 2016 primary, Hillary in the general, and flipped the seat to the Dems in the midterms.  Let's hope that trend continues.  Cheetolini doesn't get much love here.  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Textured Soy Protein 08/07/2020 at 10:30

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Disillusioned? Yeah, I’m with them.

Biden: “ if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black! ”

The D sense of entitlement over the black vote, especially considering their party’s history in the South, has to be a bitter pill for the community.

Did you think Biden did so well with older African-Americans in the primaries because of his long connection to Obama, or because they saw him as the most electable?

Plenty of Democrats are racists, too... Rs don’t have a monopoly on that. One wonders if Biden picking a strong black woman as VP will actually lo se him some support in some places...

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 08/07/2020 at 11:04

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I’ll first hedge this by saying that I’m not a sociologist or political scientist where my take is the absolute right one, but these are my thoughts.

My boss at my previous job is a good example of an older southern black person who religiously votes democrat. She’s been here in DC for a long time which isn’t exactly southern anymore but for talking about black politics kinda is. H er family is spread across Alabama & Mississippi and that’s where she’s from originally . She’s super religious and into her church community events, and doesn’t even like people to swear in her presence. And she’s friggin awesome . That job was challenging for a lot of reasons that didn’t have to do with her directly but I was a huge fan of her personally.

My non-expert read on it is that generation of black people that’s both highly religious and either lived through the civil rights era or grew up shortly afterward, they had a specific set of experiences that have led them to become a reliable democrat voting bloc. They experienced full-on Jim Crow, segregation, etc. and had to claw & fight to get the Civil Rights Act passed. Their churches were one of the big driving forces in organizing protests and voting for democrats. That energy has carried forward ever since then.

But younger, less-religious black people who did not have that set of experiences are not always reliable democrat voters, because their day to day experiences are still shitty, the system is inherently biased against them, and because of this they feel their vote won’t change anything.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Textured Soy Protein 08/07/2020 at 11:11

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I can definitely see how living through segregation would make you value your vote might higher and never waste it, even if it’s a lesser-of-two-evils vote.

Easy to see the frustration of the younger generation, too. 

Will be interesting to learn what turnout is like this year.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > marshknute 08/07/2020 at 11:37

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Clearly her own internal polling was wrong, or she would’ve actually visited Wisconsin...