EVs

"Tripper" (tripe46) 10/21/2020 at 11:20 • Filed to: None

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With all this hummer/cyber stuff...It has me thinking about EV’s. As most of you will probably assume via my current fleet or me just being me on here; I don’t want one. I don’t hate EV’s or anything like that, I just don’t like most new cars period. EV’s come with the additional caveat of not making any sense for me personally. So I always shrug them off, but I’m trying to keep an open mind here, so I went to some math.

Hayuck

Assuming 12k miles per year (I don’t do that much on one car) that’s 40 tanks @ 300 miles per tank ( I do much better than that on the Alltrack). Then, keeping with the safe numbers we’ll assume $3/gallon. If I really wait until I’m on E the alltrack takes about 13 gallons. So $39 per tank x 40 tanks in a year is.....$1,500? And that is a high estimate.

From my 2 seconds of googling it looks like you’re going at least 30k on a new EV. You could own a Honda Fit or similar for more than a decade before you make that gap up.

I don’t have a point here. I’m not arguing for or against. I’m just stumped that the fuel savings is so little.

This post brought to you by a foggy Wednesday.

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:23

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But it’s so good for the enviroment!

Tripper > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 10/21/2020 at 11:26

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Haha these are my actual thoughts but I wasn’t going down that road as I have no data and am more or less ignorant to the industry as a whole.

facw > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 10/21/2020 at 11:29

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Except perhaps  in the rapidly diminishing minority of places that still get most of their power from coal , a new EV is better for the environment than a new ICE vehicle, even accounting for resource extraction and power generation.

Of course, using cars longer and not building as many new cars is better still (old cars are less desirable in cities where their greater smog production is a concern)

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:35

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Evidently from a FP article a few weeks ago, an EV has about 50% less maintenance  cost as well. For my GTI that’s a few more hundred dollars a year. Not massive, but not nothing.

jminer > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:35

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I used to work with a big Tesla stan and when I told him I was looking for a new car he tried to tell me that a Tesla would pay for itself in gas savings.

I laughed at him and pointed out that my last car cost $7k and got 35 mpg then asked him how that math worked.

On the other hand I’m very much in favor of reducing the emissions we exert through transportation. The trick is though that it’s more large scale changes that are needed like expansion of rail and tightening commercial controls on things like trucking and shipping. Moving to electric vehicles definitely helps but is only part of the larger picture.

This is complicated issue for sure.

Tripper > WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI 10/21/2020 at 11:38

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I’ll take one GTI please:)

ClassicDatsunDebate > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:38

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I’m not anti-EV, but don’t forget the $5000 in electrical panel upgrades and installation if you don’t have a 200A service

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > facw 10/21/2020 at 11:39

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I know, I was mostly just kidding.  Honestly, I think vehcile size is really a key player.  If everyone just drove tiny EV hatchbacks, we’d be way better off.

ClassicDatsunDebate > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 10/21/2020 at 11:39

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That’s steam btw :)

Edit: actually vapour to me more factual

Tripper > jminer 10/21/2020 at 11:40

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“ things like trucking and shipping.”

I have been saying this since hybrids first popped up. “Why are they doing this to us, make the trucks do it first!”

jminer > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:43

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Especially the short haul vehicles like Dump Trucks, they’re classified differently than big rigs and are usually very bad for the environment.

Tripper > ClassicDatsunDebate 10/21/2020 at 11:43

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Ooof yea I def don’t and would assuming most peeps don’t

Tripper > jminer 10/21/2020 at 11:45

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OMG best pal was a stone mason for a while...their trucks were so bad the company owners “did their own maintenance” on the trucks and threw the haz mats right in their dumpster!

Chariotoflove > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:45

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SBA has me waiting for the true future fuel  of hydrogen now! Away with your polluting, contaminating, unsustainable batteries!

Tripper > Chariotoflove 10/21/2020 at 11:49

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I always liked the hydrogen idea. I had a super dorky physics teacher in high school (surprise surprise) that was ALL about hydrogen cars which is what turned me onto them. He rolled a Honda insight at the time. No one even knew what it was.

Jb boin > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:49

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Gas is about the double of what you pay here.

Yesterday i paid 1.169€/L of non-premium diesel for my A4, i did ~450km with ~60L (i paid 70.36€ for it so around 83. 51 $ ) so i did 13.3L/100Km ( 17.65 MPG).

My A3 does worse mileage (usually around 15L/100km so ~ 15.5MPG with 45L to do 300km ) and use premium (it’s remapped and should only run on premium ) which cost 1.366€/L at the moment at the same cheap station i did fill the A4 yesterday (it’s cheaper than where i usually go) so a fill would be around 61.47€ (~ 72,96$) .

And both those prices are way down to what i paid less than a year ago, it was at some point over 1.5€/L for the premium gas and close to 1.4€/L for the premium diesel.

—

Plus we got taxes on new cars that have high CO2 emissions with those taxes used to subsidize cars that have a low CO2 value (ideally electrics but some hybrids can also have a little help).

CobraJoe > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:51

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Assuming 12k miles per year (I don’t do that much on one car) that’s 40 tanks @ 300 miles per tank (I do much better than that on the Alltrack). Then, keeping with the safe numbers we’ll assume $3/gallon. If I really wait until I’m on E the alltrack takes about 13 gallons. So $39 per tank x 40 tanks in a year is.....$1,500? And that is a high estimate.

The numbers are a little different for a truck. Figuring the same $3/gallon gas and 12k miles per year, but 15mpg (the best average I’ve seen for my Titan), and that cost comes to $2400 per year, or $12,000 over a 5 year period of ownership.

So, if I was eyeballing the 2020 Titan Pro-4X, which is listed at $47,590 starting price, I could spend $59,590 on an electric truck and end up roughly equivalent (assuming similar maintenance costs and ignoring electricity costs).

Or, considering the average new truck price of $35,222, and that $12,000 gas savings, a dual motor Tesla Cybertruck’s price of $49,900 seems entirely reasonable.

Jb boin > ClassicDatsunDebate 10/21/2020 at 11:51

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CHEMTRAILS !

ST80MND > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:53

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The issue of EV vs. gas is bandied about on the regular, with the footnote of fuel savings, time saved at the pump, environment ect. But I rarely see numbers, so I appreciate the breakdown, and that it shows a benefit of not much. (linear torque not withstanding). Another aspect that grinds my gears in this debate is the environmental side. The stance is EV’s are better because no gas or noxious waste, and folks seem to think that this is the debate winner. From what I found, the “carbon footprint” of just the battery pack for an EV is so big, you would have to drive more than 150 000 miles per year to offset the footprint vs. ICE cars. I do not however think this applies to commercial transport trucks.  

Chariotoflove > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 11:54

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I think Honda  should have made an armored urban pacification version and called it the Incite. Program its CPU to automatically ram every Prius it sees.

Tripper > Jb boin 10/21/2020 at 11:57

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I should have specified US. It seems like it costs a lot more to operate a vehicle in pretty much any other developed nation. I was going broke putting around the UK in a 2.8 diesel P38 range circa 2012.

Mercedes Streeter > facw 10/21/2020 at 11:57

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I think current figures have EVs being about 50% better than ICE, at that!

And that 50% even considers that the mining operations for hybrid/EV batteries aren’t great (putting it lightly) in some places in terms of environmental and human cost.

Tripper > CobraJoe 10/21/2020 at 12:02

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Ok but 15mpg average is really at the bottom end of the spectrum. Most modern trucks get at least 20mpg.

WRXforScience > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 12:12

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I’m a dorky high school physics teacher, and I can tell you that hydrogen vehicles are a technological dead-end . Current battery technology has made the entire premise obsolete, and advances in battery and capacitor technology only make the outlook even worse for hydrogen.

Now, if you had a ready supply of hydrogen just lying around and an infrastructure in place to transport, deliver, and store the stuff, hydrogen cars (either as combustion or fuel cell vehicles) would be a great idea.

The chemistry/math just doesn’t work out for hydrogen, sadly. It’s less a fuel and more of a means of energy storage, and since the production of hydrogen requires more energy than its use (this just a consequence of thermodynamics and cannot be overcome), you are almost always just better off using that energy to make electricity to power electric cars.

Tripper > WRXforScience 10/21/2020 at 12:17

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:( guess I’ll just stick to gasoline.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 12:28

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I haven’t done a single bit of math to figure out if it’d be worthwhile but if I

Had a commute requiring me to drive more than 5 minutes a day, but less than 60 miles round trip

Had a house with a garage for charging

Had the money to afford doing so

I would think seriously about get ting a used Leaf or e-Golf.

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 12:33

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LOL, I’m just waiting for the bigger services to come along that actually cost money.....

CobraJoe > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 12:38

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Ok but 15mpg average is really at the bottom end of the spectrum. Most modern trucks get at least 20mpg.

Fair point that modern trucks are better, and the Titan is known for poor gas mileage , but there are still several examples in a close proximity.

Two examples: t he 4x4 Tundra is still rated for 14mpg combined, and the 4x4 Silverado 5.3L is rated for 16mpg combined. So, my 15mpg example is still relevant . (Plus, 4x4 crew cab trucks are very popular in my area).

But using a 20mpg truck in my calculations still adds up to $9000 in gas over 5 years of $3/gal gas and 12k miles per year. That makes the $35,222 average truck price bump up to a $44,222 equivalent price that could be paid for an EV. Still above a base Cybertruck and within reasonable consideration of the d ual m otor Cybertruck.

Basically, I’m only trying to point out how much gas a truck actually drinks during the time you own it. (I’m reminded every time I fill up the Titan’s 26 gallon tank).

bison78 > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 10/21/2020 at 12:40

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You know that your first picture shows cooling towers, so that the clouds you can see are just steam (ie. water) , right?

CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever > bison78 10/21/2020 at 12:42

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I do, my post was meant more in a /s way. But I think it came off as an unhinged weirdo kind of way.

Spoon II > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 12:42

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Another thing to take into account is the lack of many normal maintenance tasks, like oil changes. As mentioned below, the cost of fuel in other parts of the world makes it a much more tempting proposition outside of the US , plus there’s the added bonus of being able to refuel at home . EVs also keep pollution (noise and otherwise) out of city centers , so it makes the day to day lives of city folks a little better overall. Anyway, those are some of the reasons that I considered. My next vehicle will likely be electric, but I can definitely understand why it’s not a viable thing for a lot of people yet.

Jb boin > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 12:44

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Except the gulf countries, i don’t think any other country have it cheaper related to the GDP per capita.

3point8isgreat > WRXforScience 10/21/2020 at 12:45

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From a well to wheel energy efficiency stand point you’re definitely better off with battery. But hydrogen may be able to solve some other problems with batteries like weight and fill time. See airbus deciding on hydrogen for planes.

Also since batteries will (probably) forever require mining, its technically possible to have hydrogen be cleaner. O bviously this is dependent on which electricity and hydrogen sources are used. But at least it’s possible.

I’ve gone back and forth on the two. In college (5-10 years ago), I thought hydrogen was definitely the better option in the long term. Then I saw new battery advances and thought hydrogen was useless. Now it seems like battery hype is coming back down to Earth.

The airbus hydrogen announcement has really swayed where I expect things to go. If airplanes go hydrogen, then there will be a lot of development into hydrogen technology and infrastructure. The infrastructure is of course a huge part of whether hydrogen makes sense in the first place.

I’ve always thought hydrogen made more sense for planes than batteries. Engines can just burn hydrogen so there’s not as big of changes as going to electric drives. And batteries just weigh too much for a plane.

Realistically we will probably get a Both world. Some applications just lend themselves more to one over the other. Maybe we will even get some hydrogen equivalents of a PHEV. Quick refills and range for long drives. Super efficient battery charges for daily stuff. 

Tripper > CobraJoe 10/21/2020 at 12:50

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Haha well you have a good argument for if you really want a cyber truck! I’m hot for the Rivian if anything in this department.

CobraJoe > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 13:28

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I’m still shocked that Tesla is claiming an under $40k starting price. That floored me during the announcement, and it’s still looking like all the competition so far is around $70k for the low end from other manufacturers.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 14:02

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I think there’s a few things that could affect that. Do you have cheap electricity? Do you have access to free charging (as a perk from work)?  Here in Alberta, electricity is really cheap.  (Yes, it comes mostly from natural gas and coal, but that is slowly changing).

For me, it doesn’t make economic sense - yet. Especially since I’ve been working from home for the past 7 months. Prior to that, I was spending maybe $40 on gas a month, and even then, it wouldn’t make economic sense.

What I look forward to most about owning an EV is the lower maintenance. As much as I love lying on my back on the garage floor, getting used motor oil running down my elbow when I change my oil (usually ~3 times a year), I look forward to never having to do that again. I’d rather spend my time making something cool in the garage than fixing the existing things I’ve got.

I think the sweet spot comes in buying a used EV.  Someone else has already taken the big depreciation hit and the US government incentives have also caused used prices to crater nicely.  It’ll get even better in a few more years, which is when I’m hoping to make the switch.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > 3point8isgreat 10/21/2020 at 14:08

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I think hydrogen definitely has a place, just not in your average passenger car/truck. Airplanes? Sure. Grid storage? Sure. Big semi-trucks? Maybe. But the economics just don’t make sense for passenger vehicles.

I wonder if it would ever make sense to cover part of an airfield in solar panels, and use that power for water hydrolysis to make hydrogen on site at an airport (for the aircraft).

WRXforScience > 3point8isgreat 10/21/2020 at 14:51

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Definitely, the energy density of hydrogen can be pretty high (and batteries are still pretty low), so things like planes where weight is a big concern and space is limited are tough to do with batteries and easier with hydrogen.

Hydrogen is just a pain to work with: it leaks through solid metal, is reactive and seeps into the molecular structures of containers, and when it leaks out its temperature goes up instead of down (plus it burns with an invisible flame). You have to highly pressurize the stuff to make it useful, and pressure vessels have their own set of concerns.

Hydrogen does make sense for planes and rockets, just not cars (at least not anymore). Hydrogen might be a good way to store renewable energy, make the Hydrogen from excess electrical production during periods of high production, then use the hydrogen when the Sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing to pick up the slack.

Tripper > BaconSandwich is tasty. 10/21/2020 at 15:33

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I’m not sure what we spend on the electric bill , but I know we use a lot more than most on our street. Hard to say if it’s “cheap” doesn’t feel like it, haha. I might be able to charge at work for free, but I would not. This is the type of place where they take care of you at the end of the year if you don’t nickel and dime the company with things during the year. So I don’t ask for anything, haha.

Still they don’t yet make an EV that could see myself in besides the E-Golf. Even there I’m held up by the missing pedal.

I guess I don’t mind the maintenance. I DIY on 4 cars sans garage. I can’t even put a car on jack stands on my property (slope), haha. Still, I don’t feel like I spend a ton of time with it. To be fair...

Most of the common maintenance jobs on our cars are really easy. I can change the oil on the ground on all but the M3 and I have one of those extractors to do it from the top, but have yet to use it. Additionally while the slope of my driveway sucks for the most part...it is perfect for car ramps. The angle of my drive way when added to the angle of the ramps puts a car almost level with a slight raise to whatever end you pull onto the ramps.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > bison78 10/21/2020 at 16:20

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“Green Steam, Green Soot”
-- LA Says As It Taunts The Losers in Utah it Pollutes

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Tripper 10/21/2020 at 16:24

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What they believe and what the reality is? Huge disconnect.

Had lunch with a buddy yesterday and we got off on Ivanpah (Billed by Google as 100% Zero Carbon~!) and the cluster-fuck in the desert.

Turns out it’s an epic disaster and the ONLY way to get the water hot enough to hit the efficiency numbers? Add natural gas boilers. It regularly runs 40% of the energy input coming from fossil fuels but they still bill it as “Zero Carbon”.

Anything the Greenwash Brigade tells you? Assume 40% of it is complete, utter bullshit. Efficiencies, carbon outputs, battery waste... 40% nonsense.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > facw 10/21/2020 at 16:26

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Broad sweeping, false, generalization.

The Carbon Math on a 200 KW-hour car or truck is staggeringly bad.  Horrific in fact.

Even Musk admitted the other day they have no idea where to get even 10% of the lithium, cobalt and nickel to build batteries for the 70 million unit car market... not to mention trucks and semis.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > CarsofFortLangley - Oppo Forever 10/21/2020 at 16:28

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With “commute-sized” battery packs? Perfect.

The problem is that the industry is chasing some “500 mile target” that’s not even required for most use cases-- and we’re going to strip the earth bare of lithium, cobalt and Nickel just trying to chase a bad idea down the rat-hole.  it’s depressing, actually.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > CobraJoe 10/21/2020 at 16:29

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Other companies have to make profits and keep shareholders happy.

Musk only has to keep Cultist pre-occupied with flame throwers and fart apps.

CobraJoe > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/21/2020 at 16:33

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Are you sure they have to keep shareholders happy? When was the last time that GM made a fart app?

Ya know, that might be a valid point.  GM and Ford both take themselves way too seriously.  At least FCA has some fun with the “Put a hellcat engine in it!” mentality.  

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > CobraJoe 10/21/2020 at 17:09

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People forget how much money “the boring guys” at Toyota and GM made in the first couple of quarters— in GM’s case it was building trucks.

To your point, once the profit motive is irrelevant? Hell yeah. Have some fun with it!  FCA has done some crazy stuff- -of course, Fiat-US and Alfa-everywhere seem like wasted opps by now.  But I have several choices in 800HP cars from FCA...

facw > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/21/2020 at 18:03

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Have any sources for your claim? All recent research I’ve seen says EVs are considerably better in most circumstances. There was one in 2017 that said otherwise, but it was making a bunch of bad and/or outdated assumptions: https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/12/study-that-argued-evs-arent-cleaner-gets-an-update/

The question as to whether we actually can build enough batteries to support a worldwide electric fleet, but that’s a separate question from the environmental impact.

And of course looking at the Hummer, it’s probably not going to be good for the environment regardless of fuel source.

CobraJoe > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/22/2020 at 17:13

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The profit shouldn’t be forgotten about, that is a very good point.

But once you’re making a profit, you might want to look beyond all the “sensible” options of cars. Because, if all you offer are “sensible” cars, you’ll end up with a lot of comparisons and cross shopping with other brands.

Though, if you offer something crazy or different or interesting, you’ll get a certain group of people dedicated to your brand, even if they can’t or won’t get the oddball thing that got their attention.