"LJ909" (lj909) 10/15/2020 at 12:25 • Filed to: Tesla, EV Sales

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I found an article that shows how insane it is that Tesla pretty much has a monopoly on the EV market in both their valuation and how they outsell everyone else . The site, called !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , states that the first half of 2020, 87,398 EV’s were sold in the US. Keep in mi nd that there are 13 pure EV’s and 25 different plug in models available for sale in the US. Of those 87,398 EVs that were sold, 71,375 were Tesla’s accounting for 81.6% of all EV sales in the US. The model 3 alone sold 38,314 while models like the Bolt (8,370) and E-Tron (2,872) sold pennies in comparison. This isn’ t good. The editor of the article also makes a good point: “ First half 2020 total U.S. New Vehicle Sales was over 6 million units...Tesla accounted for just 1.4% of total sales, and yet is valued at more than the market value of all other car makers..way to go El on, WTF?

HammerheadFistpunch > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 12:43

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I feel bad for the new EV startups hoping to pull a Tesla. Once all the big makes get into EV’s in a big way they are toast unless they partner like Rivian or are super niche like Bollinger.

The jury is still out on what happens to Tesla when that happens. They might still have market dominance or at least transition into being a traditional car company...or they might get wrecked. Point is, we’r e about 10 years away from the number of EV models to choose from doubling or tripling and its going to get interesting.

Also interesting will be how Elon deals. Seems like he would be happy and may simply cash in on Tesla and move his resources entirely to something else like Space-X or solar or something.

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 12:53

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It’s worth mentioning Henry Ford had that type of monopoly on sales back in the early 1900s.

LJ909 > HammerheadFistpunch 10/15/2020 at 12:57

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Im on the fence about all of this really. I don’ t think many of the startups will survive and will come and go. They all talked big game but ultimately have yet to deliver . The jury is still out on them yes but I don’ t think many of them will be around in 5 years.

Tesla will continue to have market dominance simply because of their brand cache, something other automakers have yet to cash in on with EV’s. I think we are going to see a thing that will be similar to how everyone chased the BMW 3 Series to dethrone it: everyone gunning for Tesla while consumers keep buying them while largely ignoring everyone else. And then when everyone finally catches up and is as good as them, people will largely have stopped caring/have moved on to something else.

way2blu does a rev update > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 12:57

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The Tesla fans aren’t welcoming competition either:

https://oppositelock.kinja.com/1845379711

TL:DR Tesla fan page joins award ceremony for smaller EV startup to start trash talking immediately. Ugh.

LJ909 > WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI 10/15/2020 at 12:58

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True. But you have an entirely different storm now with factors coming from all sides. Things like wanting adoption for all, but constantly catering to the upper end of the market, income inequality that insures that many wont ever own or be interested in an EV etc.

HammerheadFistpunch > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 12:59

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its a good question. Do people buy Tesla because the brand or the product.  If the former your theory would make a lot of sense, if they are the only one producing a desirable EV and thats why people are buying them, then the market will happily ditch the buggy customer service and wonky QC for something more established.  Time will tell.  

LJ909 > way2blu does a rev update 10/15/2020 at 13:00

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Tesla fanboys are the worst. A crazy combination of tech worshipping people with a Volvo like brand loyalty. Musk created monsters out of these customers.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > way2blu does a rev update 10/15/2020 at 13:04

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It’s weird, right?  They all CLAIMED they’d welcome competition to legitimize the market-- right up until competition showed up.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:05

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The weird thing is that they aren’t really that “techy”, at least in terms of deep engineering knowledge and comfort with the numbers.

LJ909 > HammerheadFistpunch 10/15/2020 at 13:06

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They brilliantly played on brand cache, which I think was needed with trying to get people to buy EV’s. But the unfortunate reality of this is that it only attracted upper middle class, and higher income buyers. Buyers who took advantage of tax incentives for vehicles they could afford without them and that were needed for mass adoption of cheaper models. These people only care about the environment and EV adoption only because its hip and chic for them to be seen doing so. Just how the Prius was Hollywood’ s darling back in the late 90's and early 00's.

LJ909 > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish 10/15/2020 at 13:07

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Right. They are about as techy as the weirdos that camp outside of Apple Stores 2 weeks before a new iPhone debuts. 

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:14

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True.

Future next gen S2000 owner > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:20

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Tesla is definitely trading on image at this point. They have good performance but it is trendy to be seen in one.

I think we are in the later stages of introduction and are moving into the growth phase for the life cycle of EV’s. We’ll see how Tesla adapts.

DasWauto > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:21

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Teslas offer the most range for the price, by a margin. Given that range is the biggest limiting factor for EVs, they’ve still got a leg up on there, as well as with their charging network. They offer the most complete package in the EV market; c ompetition is growing , but Tesla still has the technology advantage.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > HammerheadFistpunch 10/15/2020 at 13:21

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It’s all brand— There were dozens of “personal organizers” available from Casio, HP, IBM, Compqaq during the Palm Pilot era, all of whom were going after Palm as “the leader in this new emerging high-growth category”.

The fact that nobody else could move any product in a market totally dominated by a single brand? That’s a very, very bad sign.

Ultimately? Palm was soon overwhelmed by an existing category— phones— which grew to subsume the software, interface and back-end that had defined Palm.

My bet remains that the same thing happens here with Toyota, Honda and Daimler using increasingly aggressive (no compromises!) hybrids coming in to category.

I’m sure Tesla will sell a lot of Model Y (as Palm sold a lot of m100), but check out the action around the RAV4-Hybrid.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:24

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Can you imagine the furor that would result if Mary Barra announced that the newly-priced next-gen Escalade was having a price cut two weeks later to a “Base Price of $69,069.69"?

LJ909 > DasWauto 10/15/2020 at 13:34

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They really do have the range advantage. It just sucks that that range that they have hasnt trickled  down to below $35k.

ADabOfOppo; Gone Plaid (Instructables Can Be Confusable) > HammerheadFistpunch 10/15/2020 at 13:37

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If it isn’t purely brand caché, then it would be range. No else touches Tesla on range. And it rarely matters when you give buyers facts about how they will almost never need to have that extra 100+ miles of charge, they will buy a Tesla because it feels safer than buying a car that they can’t go that far.

My Euro dealership offers the E-Tron, I-Pace, and Taycan. And while we have sold a few, I think most people who would buy them go with a Tesla because of the extra range.

What I have seen is a few people moving from Tesla to those other EVs because they are way more an actual car and not a transportation device, and since they’ve already had experience with public charging infrastructure, they are less worried about range. 

krustywantout > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:41

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Once the electric trucks come out, we’ll see where Tesla stands in the EV market. And since brand loyalty is so high with trucks, I wonder how Tesla’s market penetration will be. I also wonder who Tesla is capturing sales from and who is actually losing out on the rise of Tesla. If we look at the top ten best selling autos in the US, is any one of those losing out to Tesla?

Elon is not someone that I like, but he knows how to make brand spokespeople out of his customers and shareholders. When you think about it, i t’s no different than the fanboy mentality that people have with most brands.

DasWauto > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 13:59

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Batteries make up a disproportionately large percentage of the cost of an EV, at least when compared to the cost of the powertrain in an  ICE powered car. In 5 years it almost certainly will be there though, and likely not just with Tesla.

notsomethingstructural > HammerheadFistpunch 10/15/2020 at 14:07

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I saw an article talking about take rates for countries that are much more progressive and have much lower carbon footprints (think Scandinavia ). They’re usually the first market for new EV’s so they’re several years ahead of the US . And Tesla is getting absolutely crushed. Every time a manufacturer brings a new car to market, all the sales come right from Tesla’s bottom line. I’ve been on the fence about Tesla’s long-term fortunes, but I don’t think they have their shit together, and it’s going to catch up to them soon because it already has been in the parts of the world that are ahead of us on EV adoption.

HammerheadFistpunch > notsomethingstructural 10/15/2020 at 14:11

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Yeah I remember when Norway was all bout that Tesla life but if you can buy from a more  local brand or at least one that has established dealers and not lose out?  Yeah thats a no brainer.

notsomethingstructural > HammerheadFistpunch 10/15/2020 at 14:20

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Pretty much. As it stands Tesla might have a decent share of first time EV buyers (even in the future) but once it comes to second time buyers I think they’ll get steamrolled. And I’m guessing most first-time EV purchasers will turn into second-time purchasers, so give it 2-3 years.

They’ll lose first time purchasers when other manufacturers have FSD and Tesla doesn’t, because NHTSA or whoever has already said Tesla doing optical only is not a foreseeable path to FSD early deployment. 

LJ909 > krustywantout 10/15/2020 at 14:24

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You made a lot of good points. Ill try and share mind if you don’ t mind.

As far as the Cybertruck goes, I don’ t actually think it’ll blip the radar of people who actually use trucks as trucks. That’ s what the F-150 EV is gunning for. The Cybertruck will sell to the people who Tesla has been selling to. People who want to make a statement. And the Cybertruck on looks alone makes a big statement. So expect to see celebrities and Youtubers driving them.

As far as who is loosing out to Tesla, I think everyone is because, like the article pointed out, they hold nearly 82% marketshare. What’ s weird is that they aren’ t in the top 10, nor the top 25 of the best selling cars in the US this year. But that’ s due to EV’s still selling relatively small numbers (The top 10 & 25 vehicles in the US are selling hundreds of thousands.

krustywantout > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 14:39

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You are correct. M y thinking is how big is the market they are displacing sales from because that’s where they have room to grow. I don’t see them every being a volume player in the near term even though they are trying to compete in the truck market. The cyber truck will be the second vehicle in a household that already has a Tesla, very few traditional truck owners will be converted . I think the major automakers don’t seem to be concerned just yet about Tesla since they aren’t feeling real pain from losing sales. The German automakers maybe the most concerned since I’m assuming they are the ones losing out on sales more than any country. However, once Ford releases their EVs and those sales are factored into total EV sales, Tesla’s EV market share will probably go down.

Cé hé sin > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 15:51

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Interestingly, Tesla’s market domination isn’t replicated everywhere. I went and looked up the figures for Norway. Small market but because of incentives it is in percentage terms the largest EV market around.

So far this year the Model 3 is seventh overall in sales. That may sound impressive, but numbers one to six are either pure EVs or (the Golf) mainly so. Market leader is the Audi e-tron which outsells the Model 3 by about three to one.

Cé hé sin > notsomethingstructural 10/15/2020 at 15:53

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Yes, I’ve checked Norway for stats for the year to August. The Model 3 is at number seven overall but the six ahead of it are either pure EVs or (Golf) mainly so.

Market leader, the Audi e-tron, outsells the Model 3 by about three to one.

Nauraushaun > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 16:20

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I think it’s nuts how they managed to do this out of nowhere. There are so many big players in the auto industry, it should be nigh on impossible for some upstart new company to come in and beat them at their game

LJ909 > Nauraushaun 10/15/2020 at 16:25

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Blindsided. Thats all I can say. Plus, as I mentioned to someone else, they brilliantly played on the “EV’s as a premium product” game and it worked. 

Nauraushaun > LJ909 10/15/2020 at 17:10

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Totally. Somehow the traditional manufacturers are doing the opposite - making EVs appear as over-priced, short-ranged alternatives to ICEs.