5-Year Fuel Savings Of Going Electric, By State

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction) 03/05/2019 at 09:55 • Filed to: None

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Using the EIA’s avg residential kWh cost (Dec. ‘18), AAA’s current avg cost of regular unleaded (3/4/19), and the EPA new car avg of 22 MPG, and based on driving 15k miles per year, here’s the five-year fuel savings, by state, of replacing an average gasoline-powered car with a ‘19 Tesla Model 3 Mid-Range (rated at 27 kWh per 100 mi - numbers not yet released for $35k base model). Washington is by far the best, at just over $7900 in savings, and Rhode Island comes in last, at $3600 in savings. In 35 of 50 states, one would save $5000-6000.*

*In a previous post, Tekamul brought up charge efficiency ratio: The 27 reflects how much power exists the battery to drive 100 miles. But to put that 27kWh back, you need to supply ~30kWh, as some of that power turns to heat in the cord, BMS and batteries during charging. Depending on you charge method (L1/2/3) there’s a different accepted ratio.

So, power “loss” during charging would drop the overall savings by some percentage (up to 10%).

Clearly, gasoline and electricity prices vary season-by-season, and year-by-year, but regional differences will largely remain the same, so I thought this would be an interesting look at the differences of making this change based on where you live.

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random001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:00

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I wish I could trust a 6 year old, $5000 Nissan Leaf to keep 50 miles electric, cuz I’d rock that.

Chuckles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:05

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That EPA new car average MPG is a pretty crucial part of this equation, and one that will vary a lot from person to person. I would think that the average person who is interested in an electric car is not cross shopping it against a 22mpg crossover, but rather a Prius or at least something that's hitting 30mpg. So those savings would shrink a bit.

benjrblant > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:06

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Do you happen to have the source for that map? I’m curious about the numbers for some specific states.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chuckles 03/05/2019 at 10:07

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Yeah, definitely. Easy to figure for your own situation. Just wanted to show the substantial difference from place to place, based on differences in electricity and gasoline costs. 

Bryan doesn't drive a 1M > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:09

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Why did they color the best savings in red and the worst in green?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Bryan doesn't drive a 1M 03/05/2019 at 10:13

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They is me - ha! Red is usually high or “hot” when making maps, but you’re probably right that green makes more sense as the best in this scenario, due to the other connotations of that word . Easy to flip it, maybe I will...

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > random001 03/05/2019 at 10:13

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I keep thinking about those too...it’d be a great commuter car. I drive ~30 miles roundtrip so even 50 miles should be sufficient. Still, I think it’d be a bit nerve wracking

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > benjrblant 03/05/2019 at 10:15

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I’m the source. =)

Which ones would you like?

Here the EIA data:  https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

Chuckles > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:15

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It is interesting to see the state by state differences. Thanks for sharing that.

Obviously no single chart can tell the full story. Do you know if this one is factoring in maintenance costs (like oil changes), or is it just based on fuel savings?

Ash78, voting early and often > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:16

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In 10 years, this map can also be “Unexpected budget shortfalls due to lower gas tax revenues”

(What tool did you use to get a geographic heat map? Pretty cool.)

random001 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 03/05/2019 at 10:17

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I have a 42 mile commute, and I’m in Ohio, so Winter....

benjrblant > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:18

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Thank you!

The map is really helpful!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 10:18

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So, the gas tax is really just a highway use tax - how do you think they’ll pass than on to drivers of electric cars? A new annual tax based on mileage?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Chuckles 03/05/2019 at 10:19

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You’re welcome. I made it, then shared it. =)

This is pure fuel savings (electricity vs. gasoline). 

nermal > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:22

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So $60 - $130 / month in savings at today’s prices. That may make a difference on a $35k car , but not on a $100k one .

I don’t think the way to sell EVs is by focusing on cost savings, but rather other side benefits. Home charging, the driving experience, technology, etc. 

Ash78, voting early and often > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:24

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The actual mileage/usage thing has been kicked around for a long time. People have pretty well rejected GPS tracking, so there’s not really a good system unless people want to submit to odometer readings annually. I honestly think that’s fine, just get your odo read at your annual inspection (where applicable) and if you’ve driven more than, say, 10k miles you pay a little more; 15k-25k at a higher rate; then 25k+ and a “punitive” rate. Basically how a lot of water bills work, for better or worse.

Further analogizing the water bill idea, you could give people a 10% credit for using roads out of state, but assume most of their driving in within their own state.

For lack of anything else, I think that’s how it’ll go down.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > nermal 03/05/2019 at 10:25

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Everyone has their own motivations. The ones that have been waiting for years on the $35k model have definitely been crunching the numbers.

TheRealBicycleBuck > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:26

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A friend of mine and I did a similar estimate when he needed to buy a new car. He was looking at hybrids, so we ran the numbers on cars which were offered with either an   internal combustion or hybrid drivetrain. We came to similar fuel cost savings over a five-year lifespan. However, o n average, a hybrid was a $10k price premium over the standard gasoline version. It should be noted that we were using per-gallon costs back when gasoline prices were still very high.

From a strictly financial perspective, he would have been losing money by owning a hybrid. If the price premium is still the same, then buying a hybrid now would be the same story.

Now for an u nrequested map critique:

Given the technique for calculating the fuel savings, one significant digit in the five-year cost savings is more than enough, six significant digits is meaningless.

Use no more than 7 colors or categories in a map. Most people have a hard time distinguishing more than seven. You can get away with a few more by using two anchor colors (which you did), but using 20 is excessive. It makes it difficult to tell in which of the 20 categories any state falls.

Make the category breaks meaningful. It would make more sense to set the range from $3k to $8k and make the breaks $1k each. That would give you five categories. You could also start at $3,500 and use $500 breaks to get 9 categories.

Red is usually “hot” or “bad” and green is usually “cooler” or “good.” Visually, this map tells us that the potential savings in California are worse than in New York.  

Sorry. I can’t help myself sometimes. One of the classes I taught included basic cartography.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 10:31

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18 states have no annual or emissions inspection, and another 14 only have emissions inspection for certain counties. Lots of places are going to have to figure this out, or will be losing lots of revenue.

Driving out of your own state does through a wrench into things, but I guess it mostly works itself out in the wash. 

cbell04 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:31

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Really cool. Some actual real world savings going on with that. Factor in 10 to 12 less oil changes over that time and a few other internal combustion related services and the savings are looking pretty good. It would still have to be a second car for most but I really do hate that our second car just sits in the driveway 95% of the time but still needs service regularly. Unfortunately the cost of hooking up the better electric Chargers seems to b e going up same goes for hooking your generator up into your house grid. Did it on our last house pretty cheap but now it’s gotten really pricey. So I’m guessing without really doing any research that $1 500 to $2,500 would have to be subtracted from the savings for the level 2 Charger to make this all work and then you have the problem that the next ev you buy will likely charge with a different system something even better and you’ll have to do it all over again not that I would be complaining. Long story short cool map

Ash78, voting early and often > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:40

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Back of the napkin, most states with large population centers and high EV adoption should already have annual inspections, so those implementations will be easy.

The rest of FREE MURICA just drives our trucks around shooting guns in the air and voting for Trump. At least that’s what the news articles have told me :D

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/05/2019 at 10:41

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Thanks for the map critique - this was clearly “quick & dirty”.

- yeah, that’s just a screenshot from ArcMap for the legend (lazy)

- it is too many colors, but I wanted to use Equal Interval but also show the variation at the top and bottom (instead of lumping them into groups)

- I agree on the color - in my business, red is “hot” or “high” or “thick” (and means good), but green makes much more sense as the high here

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 10:43

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So, buy an EV in a “fly-over”  state and relish in not having to pay (as much) to maintain the roads?

TheRealBicycleBuck > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:44

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Thanks for not taking it personally. :)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/05/2019 at 10:49

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Not at all. 

Ash78, voting early and often > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 10:53

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Yep. The tax credit goes further in lower-cost areas. Plus the flyover states tend to drive more, especially rural people, due to geographic dispersion. They all stand to benefit the most from EVs, especially the ones with 200+ mile range. A huge cost hedge, plus no likely changes to the gas tax on the immediate horizon.

We’ll all pay in the long run, it’s just about timing.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 10:58

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He built it in ArcMap .

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 11:02

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I have over 15k miles purely in commute myself per year. 

punkgoose17 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 11:05

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Ooo I want to save money.

Does the math... Leafs are too expensive.

I would have to get an i-Miev and have it shipped to my house.

I think this would be an interesting experiment, but not a good idea. Commute 42 miles round trip. Often make a 100 mile round trip to visit friends and there is no place to charge there.

If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 11:10

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Red usually means "bad". Why are the biggest savers red and the lowest green? Was this study funded by big oil?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > random001 03/05/2019 at 11:17

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Yea, I never hear anyone talk about how much a drain heating the cabin is in the winter.

RacingShark > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/05/2019 at 11:29

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I wonder how that math works out now for hybrid vs non-hybrid.
A Honda Insight is only $3500 more than a civic, but is 20-25MPG better.

The new Corolla Hybrid gets 20MPG better than the standard Corolla, for probably a similar few thousand dollar premium.

RacingShark > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 11:34

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Personal Property Tax? I agree that a gas tax is better, because it’s somewhat directly related to the damage you do to the road.

Personal Property Taxes are also less regressive. Richer and have a more expensive car, you pay more.

Could also tax the electric usage in some way. Right now, it’s often cheaper to sign up for lower electric rates in the evening and charge your car overnight. Keep that system, but put a tax on the electric power used at night. Still cheaper than charging during the day, so that people will use it for cars like that. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent 03/05/2019 at 11:37

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Nope, s mall oil ... ha! I actually do work for a small oil & gas company, and in our business, red means “hot”, “high” or “thick” (good). Old habits die hard. I agree that for this map, I should’ve flipped the colors, especially when talking about “green” cars.

Ash78, voting early and often > RacingShark 03/05/2019 at 11:40

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Yep, we (Alabama) already have a pretty aggressive ad valorem tax on car registrations. A typical brand new car is about $500/year, but drops off quickly after that as the value declines. A rare example of a progressive tax that makes sense, but in turn in also encourages people to drive old crapcans that cost $31/year (guilty as charged!).

I think the electric tax is a good idea. The cops used to monitor power usage to locate marijuana growhouses, so I don’t see why unusually high power usage couldn’t follow the same pattern. Once you hit a certain KwH/month, you pay a much steeper rate and/or tax because you’re either horribly wasteful or you’re charging a car.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 11:44

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So when are we getting a new and improved map?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 03/05/2019 at 11:49

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Haha - maybe this afternoon, but it’s kind of busy here today...

For Sweden > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 11:52

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Time to buy a used Volt

random001 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 03/05/2019 at 11:59

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This winter a lot of EV drivers and reports said you could lose half your range.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > For Sweden 03/05/2019 at 12:24

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Does buying a used one mean you’re... re Volting?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > random001 03/05/2019 at 12:35

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oof...yea, that would be cutting it close for me even and my work doesn’t have any charging stations.

They started with 86 mile range...which can be down to 60% after 5 years, so 51.6miles, then cut that in half for a cold winter day and you’re at 25.8 miles. I feel like you could do better with a bunch of deep cycle lead-acid batteries for less.

Bryan doesn't drive a 1M > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 12:39

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Sorry, “They”, I spend a lot of time with data visualization at work, so I’m hypersensitive to these things.

I’m not surprised at these results, since here in WA we have high gas prices and cheap electricity.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > cbell04 03/05/2019 at 12:39

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Haha - thanks! 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Bryan doesn't drive a 1M 03/05/2019 at 12:41

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No worries.

The difference between New England and the West Coast is striking. 

dogisbadob > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 12:57

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Nice scale points

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > dogisbadob 03/05/2019 at 13:21

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Laziness prevailed. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > punkgoose17 03/05/2019 at 13:23

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Just need a small trailer and a generator... 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/05/2019 at 13:57

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For the data, f ive is way too few, but nine is okay.

Revised map added!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 03/05/2019 at 13:58

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Ask and you shall receive. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Bryan doesn't drive a 1M 03/05/2019 at 14:01

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Map revised due to popular demand!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > dogisbadob 03/05/2019 at 14:01

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My bins are better now, fwiw. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > benjrblant 03/05/2019 at 14:06

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You’re welcome - very interesting to see how much your costs/savings can vary, place to place. 

BigBlock440 > Ash78, voting early and often 03/05/2019 at 15:10

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so there’s not really a good system unless people want to submit to odometer readings annually. 

In Pennsylvania, you have to submit odometer readings when you renew your registration annually , not really sure why.  People also self-report taxes, so this would be no different.

Ash78, voting early and often > BigBlock440 03/05/2019 at 15:14

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Probably one of those things “for statistical purposes” that ends up being used against us somehow. Just like those forms you get from your employer showing how much they paid toward your health insurance...they’re not used for our tax assessment. Yet.

Future Heap Owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 16:12

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Much better, thank you

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > If only EssExTee could be so grossly incandescent 03/05/2019 at 18:16

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the biggest factor is electricity. New Englands average is something $0 .14 vs 0.09-0.011 for a huge amount of the rest of the country. 

Racin'Jason001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/05/2019 at 23:53

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Yeah, we don’t see too many EVs here in RI.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Racin'Jason001 03/06/2019 at 09:04

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Pretty interesting. I’d guess that the political/environmental mindset there is largely on board with clean, electric cars, but the value proposition isn’t good enough to convince people to make a change. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/06/2019 at 10:24

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Hold long ago did you run your numbers on hybrids? 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 03/06/2019 at 10:26

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https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a

Racin'Jason001 > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/06/2019 at 11:20

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Yeah, that and I don’t see many public charging stations around. Like, none at all. It’s not easy to go long distances because of this. My Grandfather owns a 2013 Volt, and he doesn’t go places much, so it made sense for him.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Racin'Jason001 03/06/2019 at 11:24

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Yup...

Future next gen S2000 owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 03/07/2019 at 18:26

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I think the issue is monthly budgets. You can be all for something but when confronted with the option of high upfront costs but lower costs overall, people tend to go with what fits within the monthly budget, regardless of the higher long term costs.

PanchoVilleneuve ST > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 11:27

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They’re not as popular in Connecticut as they otherwise would be because there’s a special tax on EV ownership here, since fuel taxes more or less entirely pay for road maintenance here, and they aren’t buying any fuel.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > PanchoVilleneuve ST 04/11/2019 at 11:37

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I mean, that’s the way it should be everywhere, unless states want to give extra incentive to people to buy electric. How is it figured - by miles driven each year? 

PanchoVilleneuve ST > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 12:02

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I don’t really know anything about it beyond knowing that it exists.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > PanchoVilleneuve ST 04/11/2019 at 12:03

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I’m fairly sure the opposite is true where I live. I believe electric cars are basically riding free beyond their registration costs...

It’s also the state where the savings over gas is the highest.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 12:05

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Do they get HOV lane access as well? 

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > nermal 04/11/2019 at 12:14

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The funny thing is that a $100k Tesla will look/feel outdated pretty early in the overall mechanical life of the vehicle. The long-term cost advantage is substantial even at that price... If anything, the problem is that cars have been built/sold/marketed as disposable consumer goods. What happens when tech makes crashes extremely rare and electric vehicles last for decades with minimal maintenance?

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 12:23

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Thankfully, no, they haven’t played that game here like they did down in CA with hybrids and electrics. They have been pretty firm on HOV lanes only being used by HOVs, toll payers, and emergency vehicles to my knowledge.

As a funny aside, the games they play to dissuade people from driving probably causes more pollution than simply reducing congestion. More energy is probably used and pollution produced in my metro region by vehicles idling and creeping in traffic than in moving people to their destinations.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Eric @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 14:11

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Yeah, I could see that. Reducing congestion does seem like a losing battle long-term , though. Make the traffic flow better, reducing commute time, means more people move out further (cheaper homes), and then eventually traffic congestion increases to the same point you were at before.

just-a-scratch > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 15:30

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You didn’t want to buy new, huh? You want something with a higher Volt age, I guess.

just-a-scratch > For Sweden 04/11/2019 at 15:33

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Oh man. What’s your resistance to the current models ?

For Sweden > just-a-scratch 04/11/2019 at 15:34

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They expensive yo

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > just-a-scratch 04/11/2019 at 15:36

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These puns aren’t conductive to a good conversation.

bhtooefr > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 19:22

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*In a previous post, Tekamul brought up charge efficiency ratio: The 27 reflects how much power exists the battery to drive 100 miles. But to put that 27kWh back, you need to supply ~30kWh, as some of that power turns to heat in the cord, BMS and batteries during charging. Depending on you charge method (L1/2/3) there’s a different accepted ratio.

So, power “loss” during charging would drop the overall savings by some percentage (up to 10%). 

FWIW, the EPA numbers are measured at the wall, not at the battery, so all charging losses are accounted for, at least on L2 charging. (L1 can have higher losses due to car systems taking power during the slow charging, L3 varies - it’s faster, so there’s less time with the car awake , but more cooling power required, and potentially more resistive losses.)

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 20:57

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My dad is retired and recently leased a Volt to replace his W210. He doesn’t have a commute, so the electric range is just fine for him, and he just charges it off of the solar panels on the roof. Apparently I was the last one to put any gasoline in it, and that was back in September.

Given my short commute to work of like to do as he did once I buy a place. I just don't know how effective solar panels will be in Missouri as opposed to the amount of sun and clear weather he gets in SoCal...

Variance > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/11/2019 at 21:23

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I was going to say “Who the hell drives 15k miles a year?”, but apparently that’s not much more than the average annual mileage for an American. Color me surprised; I only drive like... 8k a year at most...

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Variance 04/12/2019 at 08:38

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We put 25k per year on my wife’s car, between her commute, shuttling kids to practices & games,  and road trips.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. 04/12/2019 at 08:40

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Yeah, solar panels take a long time to recoup their cost, if they ever do. 

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > bhtooefr 04/12/2019 at 08:41

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Thanks!

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/12/2019 at 10:50

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Given their electric rates, either the highest of second highest in the country, it won’t take as long as many other places. In addition, they can be comfortable and run the air conditioning whereas before doing that would bring up thoughts of bankruptcy.

I ‘d have you run the numbers to see if it would make a much sense for me, although I suspect the financial benefits would be smaller.

Variance > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/12/2019 at 19:45

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Geez.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Variance 04/12/2019 at 22:45

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Yup.

I mean, we did 5000+ on a two-week western road trip last summer, so... =)

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 09/19/2019 at 14:34

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