Some info and my thoughts on North and South Korea

Kinja'd!!! "blacktruck18" (blacktruck14)
08/20/2015 at 19:59 • Filed to: None

Kinja'd!!!12 Kinja'd!!! 24

Every time a post comes up on Foxtrot Alpha about North and South Korea I see people asking the same questions. Most of those questions I can and do answer and I also have some of my own opinions about the North and South Korea situation. I realize that most oppo’s don’t post on Foxtrot Alpha but, I thought I would type this up and maybe answer some questions my fellow oppo’s might have about North and South Korea and everything going on there. Maybe it will get shared to Foxtrot Alpha, maybe not. Either way, in the future I can just link back to this whenever articles come up over there. Hope you guys and gals like it and maybe learn a thing or two.

(Full disclosure: The US Army wanted we to write this article so badly they stationed me in South Korea, the Republic of Korea, ROK, from July of 2003 to July 0f 2006. While I was there I met Mrs. blacktruck (who is Korean and Japanese) and got married. Korea is an awesome country, with thousands of years of history, and mostly awesome people, there are assholes everywhere, what are you gonna do? Also, they don’t have open container or public intoxication laws. Which I fully support. They do however have very strict drunk driving laws which I also fully support. I still have in-laws and friends there, so I do have an interest in the country.)

As I wrote this I underlined things that are my opinion just to make it clear what is fact and what is my own opinion.

History lesson (I am sure most people know this but, just in case): First up a little back story prior to WW2 and the Korean War.

In 1910 Japan invaded Korea, at the time there was no North and South just one country. After Japan surrendered at the end of WW2, Korea was split along the 38th Parallel, Russia (Communists) got the North half which they had already occupied and the US (Freedom) got the South half which they had already occupied.

On June 25th, 1950 North Korea (NK) led by Kim Il-Sung attacked South Korea (ROK), which began the Korean War, NK almost took over the country. The US intervened on the behalf of ROK and pushed the NK Army out of ROK and NK, and into China, which shares a border with NK. At this point China, which had been supporting NK with arms, equipment and a few soldiers, fully joined the war on the side of the NK’s and drove the US and ROK forces back to the 38th parallel, the original border. After long negotiations an Armistice agreement was declared which paused the fighting, but not the war. ROK never signed the Armistice agreement which China, NK and, the US (on behalf of the UN) had signed. The Armistice set up the Demilitarized Zone along the 38th and was supposed to stop hostilities until a peace agreement could be reached. A peace agreement was never reached and technically the two Koreas are still at war. There have been occasional skirmishes along the border and terrorist attacks carried out by NK since the end of the war, ROK has retaliated after many of these attacks.

NK has remained in control of the Kim family who have been the ruling dynasty through 3 generations and has basically done nothing but be a pain in the ass to the rest of the world since 1953. NK’s economy is supported by China and to a lesser degree Russia.

ROK despite some early military coups and turmoil has thrived and become the 13th largest economy in the world in terms of GDP.

This was super brief and passed over tons of history but lays a very basic groundwork.

“Well shit let’s just destroy North Korea!”

Whoa, Easier said than done there Chief. For three main reasons.

1. Political reasons mostly China

China has been propping up NK for the last 60 years, if the Korea’s unify whether through war or a normalization of relations, ROK will take over the entire new country. ROK is much stronger then NK and by default would end up in charge of everything. They wouldn’t even have to try it would just be a natural progression. China doesn’t want this because the US is obviously a huge ally of ROK and basically China would end up with the US on their doorstep.

The US and China could agree on pulling all US forces out of ROK once the war is over but, I don’t know if the US would be willing to do that. If the US pulled out of ROK we would have no bases to launch a land attack into Continental Asia (China) if we needed to. The way it is now if a war with China was to ever happen the US could easily steam roll through NK and be on China’s border in a matter of days. I don’t know that the US wants to give that up. China is very aware of this, even though NK would basically be a speed bump for the US on the way to China it will still give China time to move troops, equipment and supplies to the border.

Here is where this gets more complicated, China is a permanent member of the UN which means they have veto powers on all resolutions passed through the UN. They have already threatened many times to use their veto powers when it comes to some issues involving NK. Also relating to the UN, China and Russia (more on them in a minute) have historically voted the same way when it comes to veto’s in the UN (Leftover Communist pals still getting along?) therefore it is a safe assumption that whatever position China takes in the UN relating to NK, Russia will back up.

If China hadn’t been propping up NK for the last 60 years we wouldn’t be in this situation now, unfortunately they have and now the whole Korean Peninsula is in a situation that will be very hard to get out of.

2. Not as serious but also Russia

Russia isn’t quite as buddy, buddy with NK as they were during the good old cold war days but, they still have relations. Russia allows NK to send workers to Russia to work in Russia’s mining and forestry industry. Is Russia going to stop a war on the Korean peninsula over cheap NK laborers? Probably not. But, as I stated above they have traditionally backed up China in the UN and between that and cheap labor they might try to stop it, just because that is what they have always done.

3. The biggest reason not to attack NK, complete destruction of Seoul, aka, really, you guys didn’t have a single urban planning dude in the whole government.

The biggest reason to not attack NK is the response from NK. Yes the US and ROK will destroy NK.

This could have changed since I was stationed in ROK but, the general consensus back than was that NK could not sustain a full war for more than 30-45 days without outside support. They don’t have the equipment, ammunition, supplies, and money to fight much longer than that.

But, once the war starts NK can and will destroy a good portion of the ROK capital of Seoul. Most estimates say that there are enough NK artillery pieces and rockets systems within range of Seoul to put about 15,000 rounds per minute into the city. The population of Seoul proper is almost 10mil people. The population of Gyeonggi Province where Seoul is located almost 25mil. By attacking NK 25mil people’s lives are directly in the line of fire of NK. NK wouldn’t be able to sustain the attack for long but, they will be able to inflict massive amounts of physical, financial and human damage to ROK before it is all said and done.

Also, since we are discussing the havoc NK could wreak, they do have ICBM’s that could hit Japan. What’s to stop them from launching a few, just to be dicks?

Since I have seen this brought up before, I will touch on it real quick. Would/could NK attack the US if a war started? It is more unlikely than likely , their navy vessels have extremely limited range, they are not believed to even have the ability to send their ships all the way around the Korean peninsula. Their navy is divided into 2 squadrons, the East and West squadrons for this reason. That rules out a naval attack.

NK’s Air Force also doesn’t have the ability to attack the US. Their longest range bombers only have a range of 1,500 miles. That is assuming that the US and ROK don’t destroy the NK Air Force, which they probably will before they can get off the ground.

The real threat is from NK’s ballistic missiles. Which NK claims could hit most of the west coast of the US, most US analysts believe this to be true. However, it is also believed that the missiles do not have the accuracy to land where they are aimed, so they could just land in the Pacific Ocean and not damage anything.

“OK, but what if we do go war and destroy NK? FREEDOM, ‘MURICA, MY ERECTION IS RED, WHITE, AND BLUE.”

ROK’s economy would get stuck cleaning up the economic mess that a collapse of NK would lead too. Basically NK would turn into a welfare state of 24-25mil people. The population of ROK is about 50mil. Imagine the financial disaster that adding 50 percent of the population to ROK or any country would do. It would take time to unfuck the cluster fuck that is NK’s economy. Until that happens the NK people have to get food, shelter, medicine, etc to live. It will probably fall on ROK to support them. If a war was to happen ROK would have to rebuild their own country and NK. I am sure the UN and the rest of the world would help out but, ROK would still have to deal with most of it on their own.

A massive global effort could and would have to happen but, if you look at the reunification of Germany, West Germany got shit on and spent tons of money that the world was supposed to help out with. That support from the rest of the world never materialized. ROK is very aware of that. East Germany wasn’t in nearly as bad a state as NK is, the world would have to help, or both Korea’s could completely collapse. ROK knows that they might not get as much help as they need and could end up getting fucked.

If NK falls apart ROK is fucked. Of course they don’t want anything to happen to NK because the situation will fuck them too.

The only real economic factors NK could bring to the table are farming and minerals.

Their unpopulated land could be used to support NK and ROK for food. So some people could be employed through that. The NK’s would still have to be trained in modern farming techniques and a modern infrastructure would have to be built to support the farms and get the food out of NK. But that could be done in a relatively short amount of time. The world would still have to support the NK’s until that’s done but it’s a start.

NK is pretty rich in minerals so mining is another industry that could be built up. But, there is the same issues, building up, training, time, etc.

With that said, those two industries could be built up the fastest but, that still leaves probably 90% of the population with no work and no way to support themselves.

“Well shit… couldn’t the government overthrow Kim Jung Un from the inside?”

They probably could but, I don’t think they would, at least the higher ranking ones. I am sure a large portion of the upper echelons of the NK military and government will end up being charged with Human Right’s violations related to all the prison camps in NK. I am sure they all know that if NK falls apart they will end up executed or imprisoned after a nice little trial at The Hague. I think they are working in a survival mode, trying not to get killed by Kim Jung Un and trying not to get killed by the UN once everything comes out if the country fails.

“What about the people, the people could revolt and over throw the government?”

Hey, now you’re on to something. IMO, the best way for NK to fail is from the inside. If NK people start seeing the difference in how they live and how the rest of the world lives it could lead to a revolution.

I think that was part of the thinking behind the Kaesong Industrial Park. Expose the NK workers there to ROK workers and let them see and hear the differences. It would take a while but the NK workers there could lead to some sort of rebellion in NK. Then the US and ROK could go into NK to support the NK people on humanitarian grounds and China would look like assholes to the rest of the world if they tried to stop it. It could still lead to all of the economic problems I mentioned but, at least if there is other countries there to watch over everything it could be a much smoother transition.

It’s a shitty situation for both NK and ROK. The people of NK need help, and ROK needs to not have the specter of doom hanging over them but, outside influences aren’t letting it happen very easily.

Of course all of this goes out the window if NK ground forces find yummy delicious Choco Pies. If that happens the war will end very quickly.

Kinja'd!!!

DISCUSSION (24)


Kinja'd!!! BReLp7dzHM3ytYsE > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:05

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Interesting and relevant read if you get the chance. http://www.wired.com/2015/03/north-…


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > BReLp7dzHM3ytYsE
08/20/2015 at 20:09

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Awesome, thank you, I started reading it seems very interesting.


Kinja'd!!! Laird Andrew Neby Bradleigh > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:12

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TL:DR. NK have a megalomaniac as the man in charge, that man does not actually understand he’s a megalomaniac.. He grew up being taught he’s the best of the best, he IS in fact God. The people of NK may or may not agree, I would say most actually don’t but they are to afraid to say so. ROK does not have the money to do anything about it, and the US should probably stay the fuck away (as a military force that is). Russia won’t do shit about the humanitarian situatian in NK, Putin is just as much a megalomaniac as Kim Jung whatever. China won’t do shit because they won’t destroy whatever capitalistic connections they have with the US and EU.

Even MORE TL:DR, NK = fucked beyond recognition as long as they have a Kim in charge.


Kinja'd!!! BReLp7dzHM3ytYsE > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:13

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It advocates for more of a mental liberation that will eventually lead to a physical one. It’s a great read.


Kinja'd!!! Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:16

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The best thing to do..is nothing


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > BReLp7dzHM3ytYsE
08/20/2015 at 20:22

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That makes me think the US should support this more, maybe we could overthrow a government for good.


Kinja'd!!! ranwhenparked > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:22

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The prospect of Korean unity is something I’ve considered for some time, since it is kind of a fascinating subject. East Germany was the wealthiest and most highly developed Soviet satellite state, and the costs of reunification severely strained the Federal Republic’s resources and the east still lags the west economically, 25 years later. East Germany was 1980s Japan or 1990s USA compared to North Korea, which is one of the most underdeveloped, impoverished, backward holes on the planet.

If anything happened to destabilize the north, South Korea would be screwed. If the border opened (either diplomatically, or because the DPRK suddenly lost the ability to control it), no way would millions of North Koreans just agree to stay put and wait for things to eventually get better, they would flee south in droves as refugees, creating a massive humanitarian crisis that the south probably couldn’t handle on their own, if at all.

The only way it could ever happen is with gradual changes in the North - shifting to a Chinese style economy model, followed by slow political reform from the municipal level up, then, maybe, after a few decades of separate development, they could talk about unity. But, that is simply not going to happen as long as the Kim family and the current power structure within the DPRK military and KWP are in power, and there doesn’t seem to be any sign of that weakening.

I suppose there is an outside chance that, one day, North Korea might go a step too far and do something really erratic that puts China in an extremely difficult position and causes Beijing to decide they’re no longer worth the hassle, and they either cut off the expense account (risky), or invade and install a different regime like Vietnam did in Cambodia (better).


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras
08/20/2015 at 20:23

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Unfortunately that is basically true. It’s best for the outside world but, worst for the people of North Korea.


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > Laird Andrew Neby Bradleigh
08/20/2015 at 20:25

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I wonder if Kim actually believes his own propaganda. He has seen the outside world, he studied in Switzerland, he has traveled somewhat. He has to know it’s all bullshit, he can’t really believe that shit.


Kinja'd!!! Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:27

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A small sacrifice for the greater good...though i honestly expect the oppressed to get fed up with it all, one day


Kinja'd!!! RallyWrench > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:27

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Very insightful. Can we just launch some Choco Pies over the 38th Parallel and preempt this whole thing?


Kinja'd!!! Laird Andrew Neby Bradleigh > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:32

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I’d say he believes it the same way Putin does.. He probably does not believe he’s pooping rainbows and all that, but I’m pretty sure he believe he does the right thing.


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > ranwhenparked
08/20/2015 at 20:46

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You are totally right, the best way to get rid of North Korea, is a gradual change like China and again you are right about it not happening if the Kim’s are around.

I had never thought about the China angle. They could pull off something like that. I would take an absolutely insane act on the part of North Korea for it to happen though.

I have always thought China would let the US and South Korea handle it though. I think once they get tired of the Kim’s they will secretly give us permission to attack and let us handle the dirty work.


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > Supreme Chancellor and Glorious Leader SaveTheIntegras
08/20/2015 at 20:47

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That’s exactly how I imagine it happening too.


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > RallyWrench
08/20/2015 at 20:55

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They already did, workers at Kaesong were smuggling out the Choco Pies they were given at their breaks.

Than North Korea banned them .

And a bunch of South Korean activists and North Korean defectors sent them over in ballons.


Kinja'd!!! ranwhenparked > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 20:57

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Yeah, I really wonder how big of an incident it would have to be. I mean, they already shelled South Korean territory (several times) and torpedoed a South Korean naval ship - under normal circumstances, they would easily be considered acts of war, but everyone just kind of agreed to shrug them off and basically ignore them after going through some brief mandatory diplomatic outrage and the compulsory apology demands.

The trouble is that the more leeway you give them, the more emboldened they could get.

Japan would obviously play a major role in whatever happens. The United States has been pushing them pretty heavily to take a more active military role in the region to kind of take some of the burden off of us, and they are the most threatened country after the ROK by the North. Unfortunately, despite the common enemy and shared interest in containing them, Japan and South Korea simply can’t work together on anything, which probably just emboldens Kim even more.


Kinja'd!!! BReLp7dzHM3ytYsE > blacktruck18
08/20/2015 at 21:05

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I doubt we could support it in any sort of official capacity, but I bet we could fund it clandestinely


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > ranwhenparked
08/20/2015 at 21:21

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I really think China knows when Kim is going to pull some bullshit, they just let him get his rocks off every so often, then they tell him to sit down and shut up.

I think if he acts without telling them a couple of time that will do it, or if he doesn’t sit down and shut up when they tell him to.

Yes, ROK and Japan need to work together but, Korea is still holding a grudge about Japan occupying them, which I totally understand. Japan really isn’t doing much to help either. But, for the sake of both countries they really need to sit down and figure it out.


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > BReLp7dzHM3ytYsE
08/20/2015 at 21:24

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Yes, that is exactly what we need to do. The CIA got plenty of practice at it since the 50’s. One more time won’t hurt.


Kinja'd!!! wiffleballtony > blacktruck18
08/21/2015 at 00:11

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Rhetorical question more than anything, but after the armistice why no try to relocate the capital away from the border. Not something you could do easily or quickly but it’s been 60 years.


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > wiffleballtony
08/21/2015 at 00:29

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I know right? There is a plan B as far as government and civil offices, farther from the DMZ. My understanding is the government could pack up and move and be up and running pretty quick but, ya they should just move.

I think mostly it’s tradition, I have never heard a good explanation for why they never moved everything. That leads me to think it’s one of those, “We have always done it this way deals.”


Kinja'd!!! Horkin' Up Dangle Hams > blacktruck18
08/21/2015 at 03:07

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Good write-up, and a much appreciated perspective on the issue. I am living in China, so I have more at stake than most American’s if shit really goes belly up :(


Kinja'd!!! blacktruck18 > Horkin' Up Dangle Hams
08/21/2015 at 19:46

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Thank you, where in China do you live?


Kinja'd!!! Horkin' Up Dangle Hams > blacktruck18
08/22/2015 at 05:49

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I live towards the middle of the country in a little city called Wuhan with a population of about 8 million people. Currently doing a Master degree in International Relations here, so this stuff is especially interesting to me.

Also, just realized I misused an apostrophe in my first comment (Americans, not American’s). My journalism school professors will now hunt me down and ritually kill me.