On Pebble Beach and the coming vintage car collapse

"McChiken116 - Patrick H." (mcchiken116) 08/18/2015 at 21:20 • Filed to: None

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Pebble Beach, or Monterey Car Week was this past weekend, and boy was it exciting. I mean, if you focus on the race cars and modern exotics. Now, I get it, I might be a minority, but that minority is what the future of the car market will be. I don’t know any of the young rich people that I have met that lust after any Ferrari older than 1980. Dusenburgs? Who gives a shit. A lot is made of what the millennials buy in the current car market, but what about the future of the Collector car market?

First off, I see the collapse of the pre war market. If I’ve been presented one of those cars, my eyes glaze over and immediately have moved onto something rad, like a CRX SI, or 308 Ferrari. Old muscle cars are a maybe. I think certain models will hold on, but the bump that everyone has gotten recently can’t last. I see 25o ferrari’s going for millions, One off coach built cars pulling seven figures, and I just think that these days are going to end soon. I know the concept lawn, and exotics on canary row are the only things to get my attention. And if that’s the case, what will be the fate of all of these “Investment” classics? I don’t think it’s a good longterm prognosis.

“Well, what is going to hold?” You ask. Well, I have a few ideas. Anything that has raced is always cool, and especially if you can still race it in vintage events. There is something about that which will always be intoxicating and seductive. Also, any thing from the 80’s and 90’s that was really cool, quirky, or, when the 25 year ban is lifted, JDM. The F40 will push 10 million dollars one day, the F50 and Enzo will all be the same. Modern Supercars with sticks will also go up in a way that will embarrass other modern cars.

If you have any arguments, I would love to hear them of course. These are just my thoughts after Pebble Beach.

lone_liberal > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 21:30

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Maybe. The production numbers of the coach built stuff and 60s Ferraris were so low that I don’t know that it takes a lot of rich guys to keep the market up. What should collapse is the price of 65-66 Mustangs and similar cars. They built a bazillion of them and a good percentage are still on the road. I don’t know that a lot of young guys care enough about them to keep the prices up (though they aren’t THAT expensive).

f86sabre > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 21:34

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No big arguments. Some Of the truely beautiful cars will always have a market. I'm thinking some Chords, 250SWB, Jag E Type and the such. They are just works of art and the numbers are low enough to justify the expense. Prewar is hard to judge. Once again, the numbers are low on a lot of those. I think the muscle car bubble will pop as the baby boomers go to the home. Especially modded examples. Authentic always has a value to someone.

Santiago of Escuderia Boricua > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 21:47

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911s are always a good investment

Corey CC97, MAZDA DPI IS STILL BAE JOESTACTIV JOESTACTIV JOESTACTIV JOESTACTIV VISIT FLORIDA RACING LIVES FOREVER IN OUR HEARTS > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 22:30

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It’s all a matter of perspective. The people who are in to those pre-war cars were probably born around/growing up when those cars were around 20 years old, and they looked at them and saw them as old school cool, like how you are looking at cars from the 80’s and 90’s as cool. The majority will look at cars around that 20 year mark before their birth as cooler, because they’re old enough to be classics, but not old enough to seem completely outdated and “grandpa-ish” to them. However, the oldest group would have the most valuable cars simply because they have more money to spend. That’s why a mint Honda CRX goes for $3,000 and a mint Duesenburg goes for $3,000,000. Like you said, those 80’s and 90’s cars will have their day, but only when the generation that lusts for them gets more money to blow.

Corey CC97, MAZDA DPI IS STILL BAE JOESTACTIV JOESTACTIV JOESTACTIV JOESTACTIV VISIT FLORIDA RACING LIVES FOREVER IN OUR HEARTS > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 22:33

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In addition to my other comment, I just want to say that I was at Pebble Beach and I saw those old coach-built cars. And I have to say that they were some of the most beautiful cars I’ve ever seen and totally understand why they pull seven figures. But that’s just me.

Master Cylinder > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 22:37

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I’m just waiting for the Porsche market to collapse so I can justify owning an air-cooled 911. Wish that I had bought one 10 years ago when they were still reasonably priced... Now all I could possibly afford is a rusted out Targa (ew).

Overall, though, I think you’re right. The value of these cars is artifical, like just about any “collector’s item.” Once the people who really want them are no longer alive, and the people who could afford to buy them are no longer interested in them, the prices will have to drop.

Based purely on my own anecdotal experience, I have to agree with your predictions. I’m about to turn 30, which puts me in the Millenial camp, I guess, and I think the cars that were being built at about the time I was being born are the most interesting. Fortunately, most of them are still cheap! Now if someone would just start a 944 bubble so I can get back all the money I’ve spent on repairs...

ihm96 > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 23:23

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Im 19 and love cars from the 50s and 60s so I wouldn’t mind this crash. I’d love to be able to pick myself up a nice Jag xk120 someday, or if I become really rich a C-type

RallyWrench > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/18/2015 at 23:37

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I’m 35 and looking forward to more realistic prices for prewar classics.

Sam > McChiken116 - Patrick H. 08/19/2015 at 03:24

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We’re already seeing a decline in the muscle car market, after all the boomers relived their youth without the rose-tinted glasses and realised they weren’t very good. I think really ant mass produced cars are going to go downhill fast after the boomers die off.