The next five years in cars

"WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe" (wesbarton89)
02/03/2015 at 11:27 • Filed to: None

If, in 2010, we were told, five years down the road, we'd be looking at two American cars putting out 707hp from a supercharged V8, a Mustang with a 300+hp 4 cylinder, or an electric car that could do 0-60 in just a little over 3 seconds, or a Ford GT with a V6 pushing over 600hp we'd think whoever told us that was nuts. But, wow, we have that, and way more. The landscape for cars now is steadily improving. We have all the above mentioned. There's a Corvette that can do 0-60 in under 3 seconds. We have the Ford STs, and now the Focus RS, one of the hottest hatches to be debuted in a long time. There's the LaFerrari, the 918, and the P1. The Viper is no longer the car in Dodge's lineup with the highest power figures. Cadillac is now the maker of some of the most powerful sports sedans on the market. BMW has brought about the future in a huge way. And this is all over the past two-three years. And yet, some of these cars still make decent gas mileage for what they are.

It seemed like the big thing was economy, green cars, electric and hybrid powertrains, and, yes, it still is, but there are some unabashedly powerful, awesome vehicles of all types now. So now, I pose the question: In another five years, will this all be gone due to CAFE standards, or fuel price spikes, or the like? Or will we still have incredibly powerful, amazing machines on wheels? Things have changed, certainly, but automotive passion, even in the future of driverless cars, is still very much alive, and will be forever, I think.

The Gearhead is Legion, for we are many.

DISCUSSION (20)

RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 11:30

Look at it this way - the full-on kookoobananas CAFE limits of some years from now have the carmakers spooked, so they're full steam ahead on power tech that will lead to useful lessons learned *for that*, and they're trying to stockpile legend against the oncoming malaise. #DownerExplanations

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 11:32

I don't see V8s being so high in numbers in the next 5 years, only a niche market like Ferrari and or special edition models of some sorts will have big engines; everything else will have been neutered in some way. Electric cars will be more prominent and automatics and DCTs will rule.

The Mustang may not have a 5.0 as a main option only for special edition models. GM may finally give up on their LS and LT engines for some turbo something. Dodge I think was giving the swan song with the Hellcats.

Cars have to reach a fleet MPG of over 54MPG be 2025, it's only a matter of time. Not only this, but we're running out of fuels, we're expected to run out in the next 30-40 years at the rate countries are developing around the world.

It's a sad as all hell future. Someone characterized it as "a new kind of fun", I'm just not so sure of that...

TheHondaBro > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 11:32

In five years, we'll see a Dacia Sandero supercar and a RWD V10 Civic.

Milky > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 11:34

In 2010 wasn't the 'Stang GT only making like 315hp? 5 less hp and half the engine size, can't hate on that.

Smallbear wants a modern Syclone, local Maple Leafs spammer > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
02/03/2015 at 11:34

On a side note, while everyone ditches V8's, I see GM proving that they can be economical for quite a while.

Smallbear wants a modern Syclone, local Maple Leafs spammer > TheHondaBro
02/03/2015 at 11:35

GOOD NEWS!!!

K-Roll-PorscheTamer > Smallbear wants a modern Syclone, local Maple Leafs spammer
02/03/2015 at 11:37

Not long enough, or not for long. Right now, maybe, but not in 5 years. If CAFE, EPA and the EU can force Ferrari and Porsche to ditch N/A engines for their 458 and 911, it's only a matter of time before they crack down on the Americans and they will hard.

Sn210 > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 11:37

all the things will be turboed. I think more cars will have a gas/electric dual power type setup too. The tech from the P1/918/LaFerrari will trickle down too.

Smallbear wants a modern Syclone, local Maple Leafs spammer > K-Roll-PorscheTamer
02/03/2015 at 11:44

We'll see... Ferrari and Porsche don't have the small car sales to bring the fleet average down, and I think there's still plenty to be got out of the V8's. They might get smaller, but I don't think they'll say goodbye in 5 years.

CallMeTURBO > TheHondaBro
02/03/2015 at 11:48

only if it looks & sounds like the HSV-010 GT

http://youtu.be/DxKogppTYio

WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe > RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
02/03/2015 at 11:59

Well, CAFE is the combined amount of average fuel economy across a make's model range. Take Ford for example, in this somewhat fictional scenario, they have 10 vehicles, Focus, Fiesta, Mustang, Escape, Explorer, Expedition, Fusion, Taurus, Transit, and GT. Now, taking just highway EPA estimates into account, and assuming the Ford GT can get maybe 28mpg that way, we have the Focus and Fiesta both with highway figures 40+, and then all the others, minus the Explorer and Expedition, at 30mpg or above at highway. Now, of course, these figures may not be attainable, and there are going to be variables, but strictly speaking, 2 vehicles at 40+ mpg, 5 at 30+, and just three below 30, I think over the next ten years, they'll meet CAFE standards. I mean, look what's been accomplished in less than that. I think it's a reasonable assumption that we don't have to worry too much.

WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe > Milky
02/03/2015 at 12:02

Not at all. In just those 5 years, a V8 went from producing 300-ish to near 400 without too much trouble, and now a naturally aspirated V8 can get to 500hp without much work.

RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 12:04

...and they are allowed to cheat the numbers to an extent, IIRC, with this or that exception (and electrics), so that the total # a reasonable person would compute isn't *quite* what they get credited for. Even so, we're looking at some power hits in the near-term future. One big thing in terms of performance for the now, though, is that safety requirements have somewhat plateaued - there aren't incremental increases of weight year over year for reasons of safety so much anymore.

E. Julius > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 12:08

Cars will have to get more fuel efficient, simple as that. Even if low fuel prices lead to declining fleet averages because purchases larger more inefficient vehicles, I don't think the average consumer would be willing to accept a backslide in MPG. Seeing as how most of the "easy" efficiency gains from an internal combustion engine have become pretty much mainstream now, such as direct injection, forced induction, and even stop–start systems, we'll see those expand to ever more cars. Most likely by the end of the decade the only things that won't have small turbocharged engines (possible with hybrid systems) will be niche performance models. Hybrids will continue to grow as a proportion of the market, with increasing prevalence of both "mild hybrid" systems and more integrated systems (think Volt or Prius). If market pressures and/or government regulation overtake the current (and temporary) trend of cheap oil, this will accelerate their development, yielding an explosion in hybrids by the early 2020s.

Another HUGE one will be lightweighting, due to the fact that most of the gains in recent years have been due to the stuff I already mentioned. Expect to see more exotic materials like carbon fiber show up in the upper middle of luxury lineups, and increased use of aluminum throughout the market.

Infotainment systems will still suck.

Justin Hughes > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 12:10

Rather like Common Core, it's not about how well they do in the real world - it's all about passing a test. If they do things like disconnect alternators, upshift at 1000rpm, and do 0-60 in 2.5 hours, they can bump those figures up artificially, just like they already have been for years. Of course, it helps to have the usual V8 guzzlers that bring down the CAFE downsized to more efficient V6 turbos. That means the Fiesta and Focus don't have to get 50mpg to average out 20mpg from the trucks.

Kinja'd!!!

I think that was the original intent of CAFE in the first place - to improve fuel economy across the entire line, not have a super economical subcompact that nobody wants to buy and exists only to balance out the guzzlers - like the Scion iQ Aston Martin Cygnet.

WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe > RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht
02/03/2015 at 12:16

This is true. I think the next big safety requirement is that backup cameras will be mandatory in all new cars, and I don't think that will seriously affect weight. I mean, most new cars already have them as an option, and as far as mainstream volume models, they're standard on all new Honda Accords. I mean, I'm sure there will be new safety ideas touted about, tested, and lobbied for, but who knows when.

WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe > Justin Hughes
02/03/2015 at 12:28

I agree with you. Also, did anyone really buy the Cygnet? If I didn't see the badge, I would certainly confuse that with a new Ford. I mean, the designs are semi-similar as it as (tired statement, I know), but that is just... wow.

Back to the original point, I think it's something like 54.5mpg average for CAFE by 2025. We have 10 years, and as has been stated earlier here, those figures can be cheated and messed with a bit. If everybody hypermiles to insanity during testing, those figures would be so easily attainable. I mean, someone hypermiled a Dodge Ram 1500 to 1000 miles on a single tank of gas, and IIRC, it was an EcoDiesel model. If they do that during all testing, then we're good, but realistically speaking, nobody is going to do that.

Justin Hughes > WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe
02/03/2015 at 12:34

From Wikipedia :

The Cygnet was cancelled due to disastrously low sales, with the car reaching only 150 units in the UK rather than its annual target of 4000. [49]

So, somebody bought it, but not very many. Sir Stirling Moss bought one for his wife!

WesBarton89 - The Way to Santa Fe > Justin Hughes
02/03/2015 at 12:47

Wow. What a flop of a car. That's terrible.

V8Demon - Prefers Autos for drag racing. Fite me! > Justin Hughes
02/03/2015 at 12:52

I wonder what they'll fetch with low miles across the Barrett-Jackson auction block in 30 years.