Interesting Stats

"DipodomysDeserti" (dipodomysdeserti) 06/27/2020 at 13:39 • Filed to: None

0

29

I got a text from a friend in Colorado this morning asking what it was like to be living in a hotspot. I don’t really notice a difference, and am not worried about getting sick. But with the rise in cases in western states, it got me curious, as you haven’t heard a lot about Colorado. I did some Googling, and found these stats.

The scaling is a bit different on the graph, but both states seem to have a similar infection rate up through May. June is when Arizona took off and became a hot spot. However, despite Arizona have twice as many confirmed infections, we have less deaths. I’d assume Arizona would have many more deaths on account of our infection rate, and how many older people we have here. We also have almost 2 million more people in the state, and the Phoenix metropolitan area is  about twice as big as the Denver metropolitan area.

I have no idea the reason behind any of these observations, just something interesting I noticed.

WilliamsSW > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:03

2

A few possible reasons that I can think of (and I’m just spitballing to be clear):

- because Arizona’s spike only happened recently, you haven’t had a spike in deaths - yet.

- differences in testing rates maybe

- different strains of the virus

VincentMalamute-Kim > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:07

1

It’d be interesting to see the graph of deaths reported daily for each state. CO’s new infection rate is roughly what AZs was through May. AZ may have gotten that ‘ twice as many confirmed infections as CO’ based on the June spike .

If the data stopped at the end of May when CO and AZ had similar rates of new infections, were the total deaths still similar? Is Arizona’s death count going to skyrocket in July and August after a delay of 1-2 months following the current  infection spike?

Victorinoo > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:13

0

I think it may also have to do with Arizona being hit later. Doctors have learned a lot from other states, for example they found  that medications like famotidine have significantly improved chances of living.

DipodomysDeserti > WilliamsSW 06/27/2020 at 14:15

1

I think those are all plausible reasons.

Here’s a weird one. My sister is a nurse and doctoral student. Her preceptor came down with symptoms and tested positive three days after a meeting with her. Despite both working with Covid patients, neither wore masks during their meetings (duh). My sister tested negative.

One of my bosses had his SIL come down with covid (confirmed) after arriving at his house from Israel. He got pretty sick, but no hospital visit.  This guy has ten kids in a smallish house, so there’s no way to socially distance. No one, including his daughter who was taking care of him, caught it. They were all tested multiple times.

I’m thinking there may be a biological factor that makes certain people less susceptible to catching this thing.

fintail > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:15

0

Hopefully not for reasons I’d suspect in other regions where the person recording the cause of death might be under political pressure to fudge the numbers, so to speak.

DipodomysDeserti > Victorinoo 06/27/2020 at 14:16

1

Our first confirmed case was in January, two days after Washington’s first confirmed case. We were pretty similar to CO up until June.

wafflesnfalafel > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:16

1

Arizoniacs must take their vitamins...

WilliamsSW > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:21

2

Plausible, yes, but who knows? I can think of a few other possibilities too, and that’s without venturing into any tinfoil hat stuff.

Your stories highlight the fact that, although we’ve learned a lot about this thing, there’s still a hell of a lot left to learn.  Some biological factor wouldn’t surprise me at all.  

DipodomysDeserti > fintail 06/27/2020 at 14:22

5

If that were the case I’d think they’d fudge our skyrocketing infection numbers. It’s a lot easier to hide test results than bodies.  This is a state where anyone can walk around with a pistol in their waistband. People dying of things won’t have that big of a political effect. Our Democrat mayor said she wouldn’t enforce our mask requirements at the Trump rally, and her and our black police chief presided over Phoenix PD tear gassing and pepper balling peaceful BLM protestors outside the event. We’ve transcended politics at this point.

Just Jeepin' > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:25

1

I saw headlines indicating blood type might be a factor but didn’t read any farther. 

fintail > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:27

1

I hope it’s on the up and up anyway. In places like FL and the southeast, I certainly wouldn’t put money on the veracity of official stats.   

The mask requirements are funny.  The esteemed WA governor also came up with a mandate starting yesterday, but it is virtually unenforceable.  I suppose it’s the thought that counts, but it will only create more whine from the tough stoic warriors of this idiocracy.

LastFirstMI is my name > WilliamsSW 06/27/2020 at 14:44

3

Good points. Probably be a few weeks before deaths spike. Also, the current surge is mostly in younger people who aren’t that likely to die . The spike in deaths will come a month or two from now when they’ve spread it to their grandparents and they die, so we would expect a long lag time between increase in cases and the associated increase in deaths. Gonna be an ugly August.

In the words of Marco Rubio “just wear the damn masks”

WilliamsSW > LastFirstMI is my name 06/27/2020 at 14:49

0

Sigh.  I hope you’re wrong, but I suspect you’re correct.  

TheDutchTexan > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 14:50

0

Texas is through the roof, with a very similar graph. Major increase in cases. But, deaths? nope, that stays relatively flat. Globally we have 4.99% deaths on the known cases (the US sits a fraction below that at 4.96%). Texas? 1.65%. All those numbers are falling too. Ebola it is definitely not (even though most media outlets seem to treat it like that).

I ended up reviewing 2 cars early June, went to Cars and Coffee, FueledUP meet and now another cars and coffee. Going to the grocery store. The only thing I am not doing out of the ordinary is go to work. Been working out of the house since March which is more than a blessing due to a 90 mile round trip commute. Saving on gas, more time for the fam and myself. It’s grand. And the kids were at home too. No child care solution. It’ll be a fun conversation when they want me to come back to the office if we can’t come up with a solution. I’ll cross that bridge when we get there.

nermal > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 15:14

1

The “second wave” we are currently experiencing was inevitable. That’s why so many “ experts” were talking about “flattening the curve” two months ago rather than complete eradication of the virus .

The spread of the virus is compounded by an increase in large gatherings at places like beaches and protests, in addition to more retail and workplaces opening up. P eople are socializing more in the past few weeks than they were two months ago. On top of that, more people are getting tested. CNN (FAKE NEWS!) was reporting that some estimates are that 20+ million people were already infected. According to my math, that’s about 1 in 17 people in the US .

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 15:53

0

COVID has hit the Navajo Nation particularly hard.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200609/covid-19-ravages-the-navajo-nation

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 16:10

1

I have no idea the reason behind any of these observations, just something interesting I noticed.

Easy: it’s a hoax. Where you been?

Jarrett - [BRZ Boi] > VincentMalamute-Kim 06/27/2020 at 16:43

1

I have access to this information! Total deaths in CO at the end of M ay were ~1400, where AZ was about ~ 900. CO had a total of ~ 26k confirmed and AZ had ~18k confirmed at that time.

VincentMalamute-Kim > Jarrett - [BRZ Boi] 06/27/2020 at 17:01

0

Very cool! So that explains Dipodomys graphs and numbers. Give it a bit of time and AZs deaths are going to skyrocket past CO’s.

VincentMalamute-Kim > Just Jeepin' 06/27/2020 at 17:04

2

Me too - I don’t read anything past the headline because all that ‘news’ is based on a study or two. It takes a while to confirm and understand all of the supposed facts about this brand new disease.  It’ll change again because we’re still learning.

DipodomysDeserti > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/27/2020 at 17:22

0

I know. I don’t think their deaths get reported as any state deaths as their nations spans multiple states. 

DipodomysDeserti > Jarrett - [BRZ Boi] 06/27/2020 at 17:24

0

I find it surprising AZ had less infections and deaths. We never had a real lockdown.

DipodomysDeserti > VincentMalamute-Kim 06/27/2020 at 17:26

0

Maybe. We never had a real lockdown, so it’s weird that our cases and deaths were lower than CO at the end of May. Especially since we had ASU’s spring break in the middle of the initial outbreak. Our city mountain parks were filled with people who were all home from work.

VincentMalamute-Kim > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 17:36

0

Before the lockdown, CO’s ski resorts were first hit from people coming in from all over the world. They helped it to spread in CO and also helped spread it internationally . Those resort towns still have stricter infection control requirements than the rest of CO.

I’ m sure there are other differences to explain the AZ and CO numbers but that’s one I remember.

DipodomysDeserti > VincentMalamute-Kim 06/27/2020 at 17:49

1

That makes sense. Rural areas getting hit with the initial outbreak, less able to handle it. 

Jayvincent > DipodomysDeserti 06/27/2020 at 21:37

1

Ah, but it’s a dry heat...

DipodomysDeserti > Jayvincent 06/27/2020 at 21:41

1

Yeah, apparently being hot as shit didn’t slow this thing down.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Just Jeepin' 06/28/2020 at 01:00

0

the latest US study shows difference in severity A,B was higher risk. 

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/18/genes-blood-type-tied-to-covid-19-risk-of-severe-disease/

Just Jeepin' > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/28/2020 at 07:52

0

Shame I don’t know mine.