Lufthansa will drop 100 planes from the fleet

"El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!" (lightningzone) 06/11/2020 at 16:29 • Filed to: None

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Will send home 22.000 employees.

This can’t be good for the world economy.

For Sweden > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 06/11/2020 at 16:36

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Drop from what altitude ?

jminer > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 06/11/2020 at 16:42

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No - and it feels like today the US stock markets finally caught a small dose of reality. My (albeit small) portfolio is down ~7% today where yesterday it had been up higher than before the March crash.

Gone > For Sweden 06/11/2020 at 16:45

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They don’t have any MAX jets in their fleet though.

RacinBob > jminer 06/11/2020 at 16:49

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Just a tuneup for 2nd qtr earnings reports. Lookout 3rd quarter. I suspect there were a lot of automatic sell triggers in personal accounts. Plus automated trading....

jminer > RacinBob 06/11/2020 at 16:53

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I actually looked at mine last night and said ‘some of these seem to high - maybe I should sell some’ but did nothing as the game is staying in for the long run .

Such is life though

Chariotoflove > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 06/11/2020 at 16:54

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Not the best choice of words there, friend.

Thomas Donohue > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 06/11/2020 at 16:56

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Ugh. From what I’ve read the 747's are done.

I’ve never been on a 747, and the EWR-FRA flight was one of my last hopes.

fintail > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 06/11/2020 at 16:59

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Going to be interesting/sad to see what happens to this industry as corporate/business travel remains cut back, and I think once normal tries to return, companies will adapt to not traveling (and the massive expense related to it) and simply cut it for the future.

I’ve noticed the LH miles and more “bargains” page has been pretty sparse since ‘rona hit.

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > Thomas Donohue 06/11/2020 at 17:05

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From what I've read it's only going to be  some of the -400s, not all of them. And no plans to get rid of the -8s. You’ll still have plenty of opportunities to fly a 747.

ranwhenparked > jminer 06/11/2020 at 17:24

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I’ve been saying all along that way too many people and companies who should know better have been in deep denial about how deep and how long this economic crisis is going to be. Its seemed like everyone has been operating under the assumption that the whole disruption has just been a temporary pause for a few months and will then reset back to normal like flipping a light switch. That clearly isn’t going to happen, different countries and different parts of countries shut down at different times and have vastly different timelines and procedures for reopening, and there’s no way politicians will be able to resist the pressure to close down  again wherever and whenever there’s another flare up.

Thomas Donohue > Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. 06/11/2020 at 17:27

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Just read some more....they have 19 747-8's and no plans to scrap them (as of now). But 2020 isn’t halfway over yet!

Gone > Thomas Donohue 06/11/2020 at 17:30

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I also  need to ride on a 747 and haven’t gotten to do so yet. I hope they keep some around.

Thomas Donohue > Gone 06/11/2020 at 17:34

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R ead further down....looks like we’ll still have some opportunities. they are just scrapping the gas-guzzler 747-400 for now.

facw > Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. 06/11/2020 at 17:49

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Yeah, their 747-8's are almost certainly too new to dump (though Delta is planning to get rid of some 777s with an average age of 11 years, which is surprising). I imagine Lufthansa wouldn’t mind getting rid of the -8s if some freight operation wanted to buy them, but that’s not likely at the moment.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Thomas Donohue 06/11/2020 at 18:24

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But  then you have to fly into Newark......

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > facw 06/11/2020 at 18:24

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Airbus is starting a380 conversions

Thomas Donohue > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/11/2020 at 18:29

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Into and out of! It’s where I used to live, and I now reside   about 8 miles from the threshold of 22R.

BRICK CITY, BABY!!!!

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > For Sweden 06/11/2020 at 18:37

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I originally read that headlines as, “Lufthansa will drop planes from 100 feet,” whic h might worry the locals living below a major flight path.

SiennaMan > ranwhenparked 06/11/2020 at 18:40

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From an economic perspective, I’d say the bigger issue is that even if things are not closed down, people will choose not to go. (for instance, how many people would book a cruise right now who’d nominally planned to take one this year..? )

Even if everything else were to more or less snap back (which it’s not), travel and leisure is going to be way down for several months to come at a minimum..

facw > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/11/2020 at 18:40

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Newark: The least bad of three major NYC area airports (though the new LGA looks like it will be fancy)

ranwhenparked > SiennaMan 06/11/2020 at 18:49

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I suspect a substantial number of people are more than ready to start traveling again, but the numbers will still be quite depressed from 2019 - both because of a large minority not traveling, and because of social distancing capacity restrictions. If Disney World was allowed to open tomorrow at 50% capacity, they’d almost certainly  have no trouble selling out for the whole 50% instantly, but that would still be half their usual daily attendance pre-pandemic.

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > fintail 06/11/2020 at 18:58

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My companies current all stop on corporate travel has saved us an incredible amount of money. Even though we are a 400 employee firm it’s in the 100,000's of thousands of dollars...

glemon > Thomas Donohue 06/11/2020 at 19:02

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It is on my list too, I haven’t really looked into it, but is there a way to ensure you get a 747 ride when you buy a ticket? Our where they fly and when?

Thomas Donohue > glemon 06/11/2020 at 19:08

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I only know because I look at Lufthansa flights (they codeshare with United) and that is what they use on the Newark to Frankfurt route.

I f you click on the details of almost any carrier flight, it should tell you the type of plane/equipment they use. 747-800 or or sometimes abbreviated as 748.

(no guarantee they won’t change it due to schedules or maintenance)

ranwhenparked > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 06/11/2020 at 20:02

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This is turning out like the shipping industry in the 1930s - international travel dropped off something like 50% after the 1929 crash, and loads of fairly new and middle aged ocean liners went off to scrap, because there wasn’t anyone else looking to buy them. Also, sometimes the demolition work was directed to certain waterfront industrial   communities as make work projects. Ships designed to last 25-30 years were done after 15 or less.

Just like then, if anyone was really confident of a quick rebound, they would be laid up in storage instead of permanently retired and scrapped. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > glemon 06/11/2020 at 20:26

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https://flightaware.com/live/flight/DLH431/history/20200611/2110Z/KORD/EDDF

It should list the aircraft when booking. You can also double check on a secondary site. 

fintail > Highlander-Datsuns are Forever 06/11/2020 at 20:29

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I can believe it. Travel has always seemed to be the most wasteful part of corporate culture. Always seems to be paying the highest rate as well.

This and maybe a lowered demand for fixed office space will change things more than some may imagine.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Thomas Donohue 06/11/2020 at 20:30

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For Europpomeet I did my route so I could do a a380 from jfk and 747 into newark.

N ever had good luck traveling through Newerk. when we returned 1/3 of the machines were down at customs and it took 2 hours to get through that and pick up my luggage .

Thomas Donohue > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/11/2020 at 20:34

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A380 and 747 in one trip.....nice!

I’m usually coming back through Ireland, they have the pre-clearance over there. So much easier, when you land here you’re at a normal gate. Also, I rarely ever check bags.

I’ve been through some bad customs lines at Newark (from Geneva) so I know what you mean.

(I have checked golf clubs, which can also be bad at EWR, but not as bad as it used to be)

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/11/2020 at 21:12

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Conversions into what? It’s a terrible aircraft for a freighter.

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > facw 06/11/2020 at 21:15

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I would suspect that the 747-8s might be on the chopping block if they actually take delivery of the 777-9s that they have on order; there’s some talk about that order being pushed back for a bit, understandably so given our current reality.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. 06/11/2020 at 21:28

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I’ve heard combis or full freighters. 

https://www.aircargonews.net/airlines/a380-finally-lands-freighter-role-with-lht-modification/

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Thomas Donohue 06/11/2020 at 21:52

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I previously tried to fly on a BA A380, that they canceled and rerouted. So on my next trip was “how many more times will I get this chance.” A380 had multiple external cameras to pan.

and the 747 is still the queen of the skies. 

Full of the sound of the Gran Fury, signifying nothing. > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/11/2020 at 22:06

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Ah, temporary freighters. That’ll be fine for a little while and then they’ll scrap them for parts, like plenty of A318s (an aircraft that is the polar opposite of the A380 and about as desirable...)

RacinBob > jminer 06/11/2020 at 23:19

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Speaking for the US, some 40+% of employment is in Entertainment, Travel, and Retail. It is hard to expect any of those to rebound much less survive. I sold out on the early rebound and said call me back after 2020....
 

Meanwhile energy is in the dumpers and government, education, and manufacturing capital goods are not far behind, If I am wrong, I am happy for all of us , If I am right, can live with  whatever happens.

jminer > RacinBob 06/12/2020 at 00:08

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You’re not wrong - we’re in some serious economic shit. Unemployment is the highest it has ever been and that’s with serious government intervention keeping 10's of millions employed and I’m not even talking government employees.

This is going to require some serious additional fortitude of our government and I’m not convinced they’re capable of it. Fucking Mitch Mcconnell said he’d rather have a State declare bankruptcy than give it financial assistance. Fun fact though a State cannot declare bankruptcy -it is not allowed by law to do so.

glemon > Thomas Donohue 06/12/2020 at 00:12

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We flew out of Newark when we flew Lufthansa last year, but alas no 747.  As we walked through and experienced the Newark airport I said to my wife, "this must be the worst airport in America, I googled and statement confirmed.

RacinBob > jminer 06/12/2020 at 09:29

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The way I look at it is there will be a lot of entities that will be deeply financially compromised after this,

- The states - 30% less tax revenue
- Secondary Education - I wonder if some colleges with go bankrupt
- Travel and hotels
- Consumer Retail - almost all will be bloodied
- Entertainment industry
- Energy sector - Prices plummet while everybody is buying less
- The car companies - Knee deep in electrification and everybody stops buying cars
- Airplane manufacturers
- Construction related industries
- Small service businesses
- Convention related business
- Banks - Holding debt on all of the above

Plus with our social strife popping up just as things were re-opening , you have to wonder whether businesses and banks will throw in the towel and not re-invest and re- open in urban cores.

I could go on. I figure it’s 2008 except this time its a crash of an overheated economy instead of a crash of the banks. I figure it will take at least 8 years for recovery. I really feel for my 20 to 30 something nieces and nephews. I wonder whether they will look at us later as the luckiest generation to be hitting retirement just when it all hit the fan.

PS - About the time we do recover, our economy will need to deal with the white collar unemployment consequences of AI. Yikes.    

Thomas Donohue > glemon 06/12/2020 at 16:07

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Lufthansa is in Terminal B if I recall. That is horrific. Terminal A is basically the same.

Terminal C (United) is a different experience.

As far as delays, it’s the worst no matter which terminal you’re in.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > RacinBob 06/12/2020 at 23:05

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The fallacy that people keep throwing around is that lockdown restrictions are a 1:1 to economic activity. https://quillette.com/2020/05/08/enough-with-the-phoney-lockdown-debate/

Things aren’t going to get better till things return to “normal” and that incldudes people not afraid of dying. 

RacinBob > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/14/2020 at 15:44

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I skimmed the article and found it interesting . My point isn’t about the merits of lockdowns though .

My concern is that the financial impact of Covid that is under appreciated and under reported . B y my estimation we’ve yet to see the worst of the impact to business and government and have no clue how bad it could be. The government is giving direct assistance to entities. The $600 US unemployment bonus is allowing many to make more unemployed than they were paid when working. There is not a lot of pain yet.

But things are starting to crack. For example a friend was just permanently laid off from her long term estimator position from a large commercial electrical contractor. All I can assume is that management saw nothing to bid for the foreseeable future and proactively reduced staff. I could see a 30 day furlough but permanently laid off? Unprecedented, I’ve seen nothing so drastic in my lifetime. But this is not surprising if you consider that most construction is driven by government, education, and industrial. I bet all those segments will be shelving new projects for years. Multiply this by dozens of segments and it feels grim. And that was before looting.

My feeling is our economy is like the Titanic. For the first 1/2 hour it was business as usual in the card parlor (our equivalent is the Market flirting with 27,000). Meanwhile those who knew about what was going on below deck were quietly gathering vests and making towards the lifeboats. Warren Buffet says he sees no interesting values today and just unloaded all of his airline strikes. He also says it is better to be approximately right than exactly wrong. Lets all pray I am wrong. I am. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > RacinBob 06/14/2020 at 22:14

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I dont disagree with you. Given the time i get home, I usually watch bloomberg or BBC world news and what was shocking back in feb/ march the complete disconnect between the two . some of the finacial folks on bloomberg, they were interviewing “when this gets over in a couple weeks”. Were these guests watching the channels own coverage out of china? There was an interesting article and this guy was summarizing 1/3 of customers are going to come back instantly, 1/3 are going to be leary, 1/3 we’re never seeing again till this is over. things aren’t going to be normal until folks feel safe.

RacinBob > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/14/2020 at 23:27

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I agree but look at it from the corporate end. Here is Honda of America’s May US YTD sales. At 29% off I doubt they made money 2nd qtr. From my experience, they are going to do significant layoffs. So if 500 US corporations do similar layoffs,. do we not have a problem?

I think the key is that there are many segments of the economy with the same problem will do the same thing, As an example, my local library laid off 20% of their employees. They had never laid off one person before. So if the Library is doing this, is this is a signal this is not an easy consumer reboot ?

I feel this is just like the captain of the Titanic telling the crew to ready the lifeboats......

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > RacinBob 06/14/2020 at 23:47

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again i dont disagree. that first week when unemployment number were released, the one host on bloomberg, was “omg these companies are laying off idled workers” like wtf are these thinking. Are they just going to keep them around for the hell of it?

A friend is a manager at an OEm and last fall they had hyundai and ford cutting back future orders to reduce inventory , because they thought the auto market was too overheated. So you add that element to make it even worse. and those are for stabil, legitimate businesses. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/business/global-auto-recession/index.html

https://www.economist.com/business/2020/04/18/the-economic-crisis-will-expose-a-decades-worth-of-corporate-fraud

RacinBob > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 06/15/2020 at 01:16

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Yep,my point is though Covid is the trigger, I don’t think we can just walk away from it. The economy has been overcooked for some time and m y opinion is this is a serious blow under the water line.

And h aving been through 2001 and 2008, it feels like there is no upside. Unlike in 2008 main street is impacted and banking is who are holding all the notes, My great grandfather was 4 0 at the depression of 1929. And my dad was born in 1930. So as a child whose father was born in the depression, all I can say is this looks like serious sh*t.

Here is something that happened several weeks ago. I am curious what he was thinking...... https://www.dw.com/en/german-state-finance-minister-thomas-sch%C3%A4fer-found-dead/a-52948976