Tesla Model 3: #1 seller in California

Kinja'd!!! "Just Jeepin'" (macintux)
06/02/2020 at 21:40 • Filed to: None

Kinja'd!!!1 Kinja'd!!! 27

(PDF): !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

New light vehicle registrations through March:

18856 :   Tesla Model 3

18001 : Honda Civic

17871 : Toyota Camry

17261 : Toyota RAV4

15575 : Toyota Corolla

12981 : Ford F-series

I pass no judgement, don’t give a rat’s ass about the company, but sure seems impressive to me.

Kinja'd!!!

DISCUSSION (27)


Kinja'd!!! gettingoldercarguy > Just Jeepin'
06/02/2020 at 21:46

Kinja'd!!!1

I really like the car.


Kinja'd!!! fintail > Just Jeepin'
06/02/2020 at 21:47

Kinja'd!!!1

No creative accounting like orders for 2023 somehow being registered today?


Kinja'd!!! ranwhenparked > Just Jeepin'
06/02/2020 at 21:58

Kinja'd!!!3

When’s the last time a domestic car (car, not truck) was the best seller in California? Has to be a couple of decades, at least. Impressive feat, certainly  something GM, Ford, and whatever Chrysler is called this year could never manage. 


Kinja'd!!! KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > Just Jeepin'
06/02/2020 at 22:47

Kinja'd!!!1

The model 3 is the new BMW 3 series in Califoria.


Kinja'd!!! BoxerFanatic, troublesome iconoclast. > Just Jeepin'
06/02/2020 at 23:01

Kinja'd!!!0

Isn’t that kind of like being the biggest garden gnome in the flower bed?

Still pretty small numbers , just not as small as all the others.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > Just Jeepin'
06/03/2020 at 00:17

Kinja'd!!!2

OTOH over half Tesla’s US sales are in California. There’s a reason for that.

And that reason is... , California up’d the “bribe to buy a Tesla” to $7500 to make up for the loss of the federal credit. then the pow er company throws another $1000 at it, which is cash.

then you get to use of the HOV lane (oddly) for free, which is a huge incentive.

Punchline— There’s over $10,000 of direct economic incentive to buy a Tesla. Given that $10K on the hood? It would almost be a surprise if it didn’t outsell other mid-size cars.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ranwhenparked
06/03/2020 at 00:18

Kinja'd!!!0

*cough*  Huge tax and rebate incentives...  %cough%


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > fintail
06/03/2020 at 00:19

Kinja'd!!!1

There’s about ten thousand dollars of state tax credits and utility rebates and free HOV usage piled on the frunk lid, too...  that’s why it sells so well in CALI, and is an also ran elsewhere.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time
06/03/2020 at 00:20

Kinja'd!!!0

The state never gave piles of free money to buy a BMW, however...


Kinja'd!!! Captain of the Enterprise > Just Jeepin'
06/03/2020 at 00:43

Kinja'd!!!0

I’m impressed that an electric car was the number one seller with it being different and more range limited than a gas or diesel vehicle. Also only one  crossover in the top 6. 


Kinja'd!!! Captain of the Enterprise > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 00:44

Kinja'd!!!0

That’s some good information!


Kinja'd!!! functionoverfashion > Just Jeepin'
06/03/2020 at 08:20

Kinja'd!!!1

I know the tax incentives are a big reason here, but like you said, this is impressive for a US automaker that didn’t exist until 2003 and only started mass-producing cars in 2012. 


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Just Jeepin'
06/03/2020 at 09:34

Kinja'd!!!0

It’s the new Prius (huge fumble by Toyota to lose this market share), and Californians can afford it.


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 09:35

Kinja'd!!!0

Yes, but other US makers could had those incentives as well if they’d built a desirable product.


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time
06/03/2020 at 09:37

Kinja'd!!!0

Half 3-series owners, half Prius owners.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > functionoverfashion
06/03/2020 at 09:38

Kinja'd!!!1

It was #1 in Norway as well... until all the tax breaks went away. Then in dropped to #7 among all cars , with AUDI selling 5X more cars

Kinja'd!!!

The picture is even uglier if you see the rank of ALL cars sold in Norway, where Tesla drops to #17...

Kinja'd!!!


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
06/03/2020 at 09:46

Kinja'd!!!1

Norway’s actually a pretty good test case for that... These “Oh, look, The Tesla Model 3 is the Number One Selling Nameplate in Norway” headlines were all over Electrek and CleanTechnica 18 months ago. Norway eventually phased out the huge tax breaks, rebates and give-aways... normalizing the market to what people want to buy.

Here’s what the picture looks like today— but with the market distortions of the rebates taken out— Tesla dropped to #17...

Kinja'd!!!

The HOV access in Cali is a huge deal— it really can save people a lot of time on the commutes— so it’s worth several thousand incentive $$ as well.

Doesn’t mean the TM3 is a terrible car. It’s clearly not. But the question boils down to what would people buy if you didn’t have such horrific tax policy incenting certain behaviors that aren’t necessarily the best use of the tax dollars.

We have a pretty good pilot project  for that going on right now in SoCal. I should post about that sometime, I suppose.


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 09:50

Kinja'd!!!1

Is the e-tron their best seller despite no incentives, or do the incentives still apply for it, and not for Tesla, because they’ve sold too many to qualify?

Yes, you should post about that.


Kinja'd!!! Nick Has an Exocet > Just Jeepin'
06/03/2020 at 09:53

Kinja'd!!!0

It's also the only car you can order new online during a pandemic... Lol


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 09:54

Kinja'd!!!0

Audi says that the new version is only for the European market and it aims at lowering the entry price, especially in Germany to get access to the government incentives, which are only accessible to electric cars starting under 70,000 euros.

Did the US incentive have a cap on the price of the vehicle? Because it clearly should have...


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
06/03/2020 at 09:57

Kinja'd!!!1

The incentives overall are now much smaller and there is a cap on the price of the car. However, the Tesla Model 3 still applies... there was no phase-out-past-a-certain-volume.

The playing field is just much more level now.  And people still want to buy and own Golfs if the playing field is level.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
06/03/2020 at 10:03

Kinja'd!!!0

Nah, the US basically gave billions in free tax breaks to millionaires to buy $125,000 Tesla Model X, but nothing to really help “everyman” afford an entry level EV. ‘Twas weird.

In theory, this tax policy is supposed to help, but Tesla props up THEIR financials by selling the related “green credits” to FCA so we can continue to buy Hellcats and gas-hog Jeeps. Which makes zero sense.

My part-time Economics Hobby is to follow some of these “perverse economic incentives” we’ve managed to put in place... The HOV lane thing in LA is a pretty good example of that.  Having the HOV lane clogged with single-occupant green cars has driven overall emissions UP, since the buses and transit vans that used to maintain good speed in the HOV lanes are now slowed to a smoggy-crawl.  None of it makes a lot of sense... and the COVID shutdown has made that even more obvious.  


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 10:12

Kinja'd!!!1

Yup. Definitely helped Tesla, though!

Picking winners & losers, and unintended consequences - isn’t that what government’s all about?


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 10:14

Kinja'd!!!1

The article made a good point that the additional ground clearance of the e-tron is quite a plus in Norway.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
06/03/2020 at 10:21

Kinja'd!!!1

By all reports, the ZOE is a great car too. The EU is definitely getting a tastier selection of EVs than we get over here, although it’s clear there will be a more activist policy to get cars out of the cities in Europe.

We keep a petrol Vauxhall at the house in London, outside of the congestion zone, but it’s clear that an EV would have been a better choice as the regulations continue to expand.


Kinja'd!!! SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
06/03/2020 at 10:24

Kinja'd!!!1

I hope they know what they’re doing. We now have pension funds and “safe” mutual funds invested in TSLA— so if it’s all smoke-and-mirrors-and-bad-tax-policy it’s gonna hurt people when it normalizes.

I just find their numbers fascinating. They (Lutz pointed this out years ago) are built to be structurally-unprofitable, yet will always whip out a few hundred million dollars worth of “green credits” they sold to FCA to report a “surprise profit”...

Seeing how incentives prop up sales?  Only makes me more concerned.


Kinja'd!!! davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
06/03/2020 at 10:39

Kinja'd!!!0

Yup - he’s still predicting their demise. We’ll see.

Their last six month’s of stock price is insane!

Kinja'd!!!