"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo)
05/23/2020 at 11:30 • Filed to: None
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"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo)
05/23/2020 at 11:30 • Filed to: None | 1
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The scenario that reflects our best current estimate (Scenario 5 in the report) shows 0.004 overall fatality rate , .0034 hospitalization rate, and 35% of cases asymptomatic. This is fantastic news by any account.
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
John Norris (AngryDrifter)
> ImmoralMinority
05/23/2020 at 12:14 |
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It’s good they are getting some narrower data. But it is still unfortunately really early in the game. They came up with five different scenarios, since the data they have is less than perfect. A demonstr ation of that is if they had perfect data, there would be exactly one scenario.
Th ere are a number of different parameters for each scenario. Picking differ en t values for a few parameters produces very different results. They picked an R0 between 2 and 3 across the 5 scenarios, which appears to be very conservative compared to the chart in the link below that tracks it by state. ( R0 being the metric measuring how successful the virus is spreading)
But also if you look at the variety of R0 by the states and by the changes over time, it is really hard to know what the end numbers are going to be. I expect that is the case for the rest of the parameters in the model. They even say that.
The parameter values are likely to change as we obtain additional data about disease severity and viral transmissibility of COVID-19.
Thus in the end the models will be wrong . But it’s a great start.
Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
> ImmoralMinority
05/23/2020 at 12:24 |
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Mu ch better than before, but still 4x deadlier than the flu overall and with no vaccine available yet the total number of deaths will continue to be much higher than the flu.
jimz
> Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
05/23/2020 at 12:29 |
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the one positive is that this is forcing us to learn a shit-ton (and fast!) about both immunology and viruses in general . SARS-1 and MERS didn’t last long enough for researchers to keep working on them (wish they had, though.) The key will be understanding why some people are totally asymptomatic (but still contagious) while others have nearly their entire bodies destroyed. we’re starting to understand how, but the “why” is still elusive.
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Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
> jimz
05/23/2020 at 12:31 |
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Scientists are learning a lot, but will politicians learn anything?
Lesson number one: don't politicize a fucking virus!
wafflesnfalafel
> ImmoralMinority
05/23/2020 at 12:32 |
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I nteresting - I’m surprised the asymptomatic percentage is that low. My gut feeling was that it was much higher and it had already spread significantly causing many of the random, unexplained hotspots , but apparently not. That should theoretically make it easier to contract trace hot spots too. It also jives with the more recent info trending in the direction that transmission is actually a bit more difficult and less likely. I guess I can cut back on my hourly sanitizer baths,(kidding)
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jimz
> John Norris (AngryDrifter)
05/23/2020 at 12:35 |
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if we could get our asses in gear as far as both infection and antibody testing go, we’d have a much better handle on what the exposure vs. illness rates are. As it is, I still wouldn’t be able to be tested unless I’m showing more than one of the typical symptoms. I would love to be able to find out whether or not I’ve been exposed, but I can’t so I can’t go around as if I’m free and clear.
unfortunately, the typical safety measures for that have (yet again) been stoked into a political war, so I’m back into the nadir of hoping I get it and it just takes me out.
you know, in Japan, it’s common to see people wearing at least a surgical style mask any time they’re sick or when there’s a “bug” going around. they do it because it’s common courtesy. We turn into a bunch of three-year-olds and yell “no! YOU CAN’T MAKE ME!” and invent stupid bullshit justifications like “I’ll just be inhaling CO2!” as if surgeons and construction workers are passing out on the job all the time.
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jimz
> Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
05/23/2020 at 12:36 |
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we have foreign and domestic agents using the internet/social media to sow discord and get us fighting each other, and it’s working like a charm.
social media is destroying us.
DipodomysDeserti
> John Norris (AngryDrifter)
05/23/2020 at 12:45 |
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I’ll point out that there is no such thing as perfect data in public health, and that RT is mostly Russian propaganda. They make Fox News look like the BBC.
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DipodomysDeserti
> Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
05/23/2020 at 12:47 |
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Being 4x deadlier than the flu is in part because we have no antivirals for it and only have a few months experience treating it.
Yes, deaths will be higher than the flu. Nothing new there.
themanwithsauce - has as many vehicles as job titles
> ImmoralMinority
05/23/2020 at 12:48 |
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We're seeing multiple antibody therapy techniques reaching production ready stage. These should provide an instant reversal for those already ill, and confer temporary immunity for those not affected. For those immunocompromised and the elderly, this is arguably the biggest news since vaccines won't necessarily help them as much, but this could. A friend of mine has a lab in Ann Arbor, MI and he's working with a few hospitals and other labs on one of them. They're due to submit reports sometime in the next two weeks. Should be a real game changer, and others might even publish sooner.
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DipodomysDeserti
> jimz
05/23/2020 at 12:51 |
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Plenty of researchers continue to study SARS and MERS. We’ve have multiple SARS outbreaks since 2000. Shit, researchers were even studying bat derived coronaviruses before this thing even developed.
You can’t really study the effects on a virus unless someone gets infected by it, and you can’t purposefully infect people with disease for research.
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DipodomysDeserti
> Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
05/23/2020 at 12:52 |
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Politicians aren’t the only ones to blame for that.
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jimz
> DipodomysDeserti
05/23/2020 at 12:59 |
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I basically only read stuff by Derek Lowe on this.
Sovande
> jimz
05/23/2020 at 13:12 |
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I tend to agree. I'm glad I am not on any of those platforms. Except for my fake Facebook account so I can look at the cars for sale.
gin-san - shitpost specialist
> DipodomysDeserti
05/23/2020 at 13:17 |
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Solution: infect politicians and study them
We can develop a whole new field of "political science"
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John Norris (AngryDrifter)
> DipodomysDeserti
05/23/2020 at 13:23 |
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ahh, it’s not that ‘RT’
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John Norris (AngryDrifter)
> jimz
05/23/2020 at 13:46 |
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!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
If we are lucky o ur culture might mature a bit from this experience. A pparently we are pretty naive.
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DipodomysDeserti
> John Norris (AngryDrifter)
05/23/2020 at 13:52 |
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Ahhhhhhhh
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Bryan doesn't drive a 1M
> DipodomysDeserti
05/23/2020 at 14:48 |
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True, unfortunately.
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jimz
> John Norris (AngryDrifter)
05/23/2020 at 15:07 |
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we won’t.
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jimz
> wafflesnfalafel
05/23/2020 at 15:18 |
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I don’t think we have a real good handle on what the asymptomatic percentage is, at least not countrywide. the study out of Spain is kind of a double edged sword:
On the upside, it does (thankfully) indicate the % of infected people who had no symptoms or were mild enough to not seek health care . On the down side, it indicates that even in a “hot spot” they’re nowhere near the point where herd immunity starts to develop.
Stockholm was about the same:
https://www.thelocal.se/20200520/heres-what-swedens-first-coronavirus-antibody-tests-tell-us
obviously it’s based on a sampling, so there are uncertainties. but it’s kind of confirming the original thought that just letting it run its course is going to kill a hell of a lot of people.
M.T. Blake
> ImmoralMinority
05/23/2020 at 16:53 |
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So... chances are I’m not going to die?