Covid19 cases go up in Germany, after lockdown was partially lifted

"El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!" (lightningzone) 04/28/2020 at 15:08 • Filed to: None

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Scheiße...

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DipodomysDeserti > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:17

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Of course it’s going to go up, you’re coming out of an extended lockdown. Viruses don’t just go away.

duurtlang > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:19

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They lifted some restrictions 1 week ago, but only very marginally so . At that time the “R” factor already was at 0.9, if I am not mistaken (I live in Germany and keep up with national news).

Additionally, since yesterday there is a nation wide mask requirement for shops and public transportation.

This article seems alarmist and too early to call.

Ash78, voting early and often > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:21

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I’m just impressed to see actual tracking numbers.

Here, we just get rambling vagaries from an orange lunatic about “disinfecting from the inside” that his rabid followers, internet hoaxsters, and the media interpret to literally mean ingesting bleach. Shame of all of those idiots.

My bird IS the word > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:21

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Breaking news: water is wet

facw > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:23

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Yep, I think anyone could have predicted that...

The question is will it be low enough, or will they just have to go right back in?

facw > DipodomysDeserti 04/28/2020 at 15:25

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Someone alert the President!

But yeah these shut downs were really only buying time, and I certainly am not convinced we’ve used ours well (no clue about what the Germans have been up to). We can hope of course that transmission rates drop in the summer, but even that is far from proven right now.

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > duurtlang 04/28/2020 at 15:26

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I'm surprised masks weren't required earlier. 

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > Ash78, voting early and often 04/28/2020 at 15:27

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I'm not stopping them from chugging all that bleach.  

DutchieDC2R > DipodomysDeserti 04/28/2020 at 15:31

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No way! I thought after you closed the door, the virus just left! Wauw.

ttyymmnn > duurtlang 04/28/2020 at 15:37

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TX counties are already starting to remove mask orders, and the governor’s edict to begin reopening businesses supersedes any local ordinances. Republicans love to preach about small government, but only when it benefits them and their ideologies.

ttyymmnn > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:38

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Drink deep, idiots.

DipodomysDeserti > DutchieDC2R 04/28/2020 at 15:38

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Well, I think some people understand that, but fail to recognize the implications of it, because they have never studied any sort of history of epidemiology.

ranwhenparked > duurtlang 04/28/2020 at 15:39

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Besides which, its irrational to think that the virus will just go away if everyone stays inside indefinitely. Its endemic, its a permanent part of our lives now, its one more cause of death that some people will die of from now on. Decades from now, we’ll be reading COVID-19 deaths in the obituaries alongside deaths from heart disease and cancer. Social distancing was never supposed to stop it from spreading, it was just supposed sl ow down the spread to buy time to build infrastructure to manage the outbreak in terms of testing, contact tracing, and hospital facilities . And that’s just because nothing can stop it from spreading now, its already spread everywhere.

Our whole plan can’t be to just keep everything shut down until it goes away. The important thing to watch is the hospitals. As long as the medical system doesn’t get overwhelmed with demand for more hospital beds and ventilators than they can handle, it should be OK . Total infection numbers aren’t really what I’m concerned about, since the majority of people either have no symptoms or mild/moderate symptoms, its what happens when a vulnerable person gets infected that’s scary.

New York, for example, “ only” has 300,000 confirmed cases - BUT, antibody testing indicates that as much as 14% of the state’s population, or 3.8 million, has already had it and recovered without being diagnosed, which would mean a whole hell of a lot of either asymptomatic or barely symptomatic walking around. That number is almost 4x the total confirmed in our entire country.

WilliamsSW > ttyymmnn 04/28/2020 at 15:42

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Leave it to those who don’t believe in science to prove Darwin correct.

fintail > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:47

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Ar ound here that vending machine would likely be gone in a day.   I still have yet to see a mask for sale locally.

DipodomysDeserti > facw 04/28/2020 at 15:47

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I think you have to have a very defined idea of what you’re buying time for before you lock down entire nations (a vaccine? Better treatment methods? more materials?). We did not.  It seems most people really did think you can hunker down from a virus, and it will blow over like a storm. Without immunity, it just keeps getting people sick. Unless we’re going to disinfect everything, without immunity people will keep getting sick.

duurtlang > ranwhenparked 04/28/2020 at 15:48

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As long as the medical system doesn’t get overwhelmed with demand for more hospital beds and ventilators than they can handle, it should be OK.

This is the entire point. It is a ‘new’ disease we have no antibodies for. Like how indigenous people reacted to diseases that European explorers brought with them centuries ago. We will all get infected at one point, which is fine. As long as it’s spread out enough so the hospitals can handle the influx of sick people . Once we’ve all had it at least once and there is a vaccine in 2021 I would not worry about it any more. Not more than the flu. But only when the requirements are met; pre-existing antibodies, vaccine , hospitals with enough capacity.

ttyymmnn > WilliamsSW 04/28/2020 at 15:51

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One of the first businesses opened by the TX governor: movie theaters. Yeah, no. I’ll be staying home and watching Disney+ for a while. The last Star Wars movie is being shown on D+ starting May 4. 

ranwhenparked > duurtlang 04/28/2020 at 15:59

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That’s the thing though, our plan can’t be to just wait for a vaccine, either. Vaccinating against coronaviruses is really hard and has never been done before. It might be possible this time, maybe, but it won’t be ready in 2021, the absolute best-case scenario is 18-24 months for full production, assuming no delays, false starts, or bad side effects discovered late in the trials process. We can’t just shut everything down for 18 months, and then find out on the last day of the 18th month that the vaccine just failed a crucial step in the regulatory process and is either delayed or scrapped as a result.

It will be a fantastic bonus if/when it becomes available, but hope isn’t a strategy. 

Old-Busted-Hotness > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 15:59

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Around here I’m seeing 1 out of 4 with a mask on, except those working in the grocery store (which is about the only place I’m going lately). People seem to think they can all go back to their mosh pits after May 1, because the virus will be gone by then.

Hooray! We flattened the curve! We won! Kiss me, total stranger!

Prediction: May 14 will see the huge spike we all feared in March.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 04/28/2020 at 16:32

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If there’s anything I’ve learned in the past few weeks, idiocy exists in every country. The same ridiculous anti-lockdown protests are going on in Germany and even in Japan to a limited extent.

The difference is, Germany does not have as big and influential of a rabid right wing to enable and project their misinformation. Also, the biggest right-wing extremist platform (Naziism) is outlawed, at least officially .

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > fintail 04/28/2020 at 16:35

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T hat’s not good. Obviously. 

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Ash78, voting early and often 04/28/2020 at 16:36

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Their testing rate has been twice the per capita as the us.

duurtlang > ranwhenparked 04/28/2020 at 17:56

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True. My point is that we should only loosen restrictions on society in such a way that the hospitals can keep handling the influx of patients. The restrictions will only be truly over when we can deal with this disease the same way we can deal with di seases like the flu, which we absolutely cannot do now . This will be something for optimistically 2021, or maybe 2022.

Luckily there a lots of labs in many countries working on a potential vaccine. Th e prioritization and the available funds are incomparable to previous diseases. They will all have setbacks sometimes, such is life, but given the many different labs, one will get it done relatively soon. Wh ich will still certainly not be 2020, but the optimist that I am I do expect this to succeed in 2021. 2021 still falls within your 18 month window.

Distraxi's idea of perfection is a Jagroen > ranwhenparked 04/28/2020 at 18:11

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There’s an a rticle floating round the internet called “the hammer and the dance” which describes how th is *should* be working for the next couple of years until either there’s a vaccine or there’s herd immunity and it becomes just another background risk of living. B asically they propo se harsh lockdowns (the hammer) to smash it back to a level that the hospital system can cope with, then so me serious analysis of which transmission-reduction methods have proved most cost effe c tive (e.g. do you get more reduction in transmission per unit economic disruption by banning sports events or by mandating mask use), then a long period of adjusting social constraints up and down ba sed on current infection rates, usi ng the more cost-effective methods first (the dance) , to keep the hospitalisation levels at a point where the system can cope.

Of course that’s ne ve r going to happen....

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > ttyymmnn 04/28/2020 at 18:39

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Noticed Kemp did the same in Georgia. I love how the arguments always start as “rural communities are less dense and are different from urban ones, so we need to lift the restrictions to help them!” but it ends up with the easing of requirements being essentially mandatory for urban communities as well. 

Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com > ranwhenparked 04/28/2020 at 19:00

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Seriously for the past month they should have been researching how to best implement working through this. We have the range of Sweden that’s relatively unscathed with minor gathering tweaks to Taiwan that’s implemented near authoritarian measures.

The answer isn’t to endure an 18mo lockdown, nor is it to return to 2019. Every place has come out drastically differently and therefore should adapt to their current situation.

Honestly, if we’re pretty sure this is devastatingly spread mostly by exhalation droplets then I don’t have the slightest why the boneheads haven’t mandated nose and mouth coverings for mingling public close quarters yet. It doesn’t have to be N95, just a covering to decrease the velocity and contain vapor. Since Feb it’s been nothing but implementing logical shit like this 2-3 weeks behind when they should have and play nothing but catchup.

And on another note, it still doesn’t seem like they even know wtf is going on with how this effects people. It seems to scale up with age but you still have healthy people in their 20 and 30's needing intubation and or dying and other people wandering around with it seemingly completely asymptomatic or experiencing mild symptoms. I leads me to believe that it’s almost quantifiable to type of transmission and perhaps even exposure amount but it could be that whole mixture of previous sickness/ailments resistance, immunizations, and plain old genetics and overall health.

At any rate, places are going to have to have to begin the restart. When and how will be different in each case. If you’re in New York you really can’t bitch at Wyoming wanting to resume some normality right now when they’ve had like 500 cases and a handful of deaths.

ttyymmnn > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 04/28/2020 at 19:06

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The important thing to remember is that this has absolutely nothing to do with public health.

ranwhenparked > Exage03040 @ opposite-lock.com 04/28/2020 at 19:10

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Out plan from the beginning has amounted to

1. Shut everything down, lock everybody up at home

2. TBD

3. A vaccine in about 2 years, maybe