"Spanfeller is a twat" (theaspiringengineer)
04/08/2020 at 23:14 • Filed to: None | 1 | 11 |
I’m sure many of you are bombarded by information about the virus, which is why I think that putting a buffer image is appropriate (I don’t intend to imply that anyone else should or that I will follow my own rule in the future :p
)
Today the health secretary released their “true” estimation of COVID-19 cases in Mexico; using math and the epidemiological theory of sentinel surveillance, they concluded that the real number of cases in Mexico are 26,000 rather than 3200 confirmed cases as of today. They were quick to point out that the benefit of the sentinel model is that you can’t really get the total real number of cases even with mass testing, so it is vital to act on the estimated number of cases rather than the number of confirmed cases.
The undersecretary in charge of the daily press conference compared it to taking a blood sample as opposed to sampling every single droplet of blood. Mexico’s correction factor, then, is 8.2x more infected people than the tests could show.
They were also defensive about numbers in other countries, saying that those countries, like Mexico, usually publish confirmed cases rather than “estimated” cases. He then said that “if an imaginary country had 300,000 cases, chances are that country, in reality, has 3,000,000 cases”
Most businesses in Mexico have been shut down since the 30th of March, many schools ended in-person class around the 17th of March. Mexico City’s public transportation officials said they saw a 60-70% decrease in demand. Even though it’s not enforced by lockdown... it seems like a lot of people are staying home.
VincentMalamute-Kim
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/08/2020 at 23:21 | 1 |
He’s not wrong.
Just Jeepin'
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/08/2020 at 23:22 | 1 |
The f og of war is very real.
fintail
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/08/2020 at 23:30 | 5 |
I wonder how many places will under-report cases/casualties for economic reasons. I have a strong suspicion that will happen in Murka anyway (I also have no faith in numbers from China).
Chariotoflove
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/08/2020 at 23:34 | 0 |
That’s a very late response. Good luck to you.
wafflesnfalafel
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/09/2020 at 00:06 | 1 |
right - kind of assumed and not necessarily a bad thing now that we know a bunch of folks can carry it an have few symptoms. Up here at ground zero for the US outbreak I’m confident it was floating around for weeks if not months before it hammered those poor folks at the one elder care home. So the take away is that you have to assume pretty much everybody has it, (and so take precautions for the next 9 months) , but that the results of getting zombie virus typically will be much less tragic for most folks.
ClassicDatsunDebate
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/09/2020 at 00:12 | 3 |
Total hospitalized is most important anyway...as it doesn’t matter how many have contracted it, it only matters that the people who need icu, get it.
pip bip - choose Corrour
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/09/2020 at 02:22 | 0 |
public transport usage here in Melbourne Australia , has gone down approx 85-90%
PS9
> ClassicDatsunDebate
04/09/2020 at 06:22 | 2 |
It super-matters how many have contracted it, since that will determine rate of transmission and ultimately how many severe cases there will be and how many ICU beds will be needed.
RallyDarkstrike - Fan of 2-cyl FIATs, Eastern Bloc & Kei cars
> Spanfeller is a twat
04/09/2020 at 07:32 | 0 |
I worry there are more infected here in Canada, but I think we’re generally doing OK....our province has a high number of reported cases
though (Nova Scotia).
Part of the problem in our province is that most of the population are on the elderly side...
ClassicDatsunDebate
> PS9
04/09/2020 at 10:21 | 0 |
I hear ya. I guess what I meant was that, the hospitalization rate is known, so if the total cases are under reported, it means that the cases requiring hospital ratio is over reported. The problem of under reporting is you don’t know, statistically, whether the system is up for the peak demand and when it will hit.
DipodomysDeserti
> ClassicDatsunDebate
04/09/2020 at 10:23 | 1 |
As PS9 pointed out, it does matter. It’ll also be important so you know who had it and is now at least temporarily immune. That’s why develooing an antibody test is important.