Some COIVD-19 Data and Projections

"Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo" (rustyvandura) 03/31/2020 at 07:56 • Filed to: None

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Seems to me all this would be more bearable if we had testing widely available.

Data: !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

COVID-19 Projections

functionoverfashion > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:06

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We now have more than double the cases of China! Go USA! #1!

/s

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:06

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This is probably the worst graph I’ve seen this month. Not in terms of what the data says, in terms of “what the hell is that map projection”.

facw > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:10

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Testing could potentially make a huge difference. Though it would have been better if testing had been available from the start, before it had spread so aggressively. Still, I think that’s how you reopen things, you test aggressively for everyone who has symptoms, and you test anyone who’s had contact with someone with a positive test (other countries have gone so far as to track cell phones, so they know who has been close to someone who tested positive). You probably want to do random testing as well to find asymptomatic cases, and to get a statistically valid idea of how many people are really infected (frankly even with tests still in short supply, it seems like we should be reserving 5% -  10% or something of the tests for these random tests, because the info they’d provide would help us gauge the threat much better).

Thisismydisplayname > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 08:11

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We just keep winning.

Thisismydisplayname > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 03/31/2020 at 08:12

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I think it works well for what it’s trying to convey.  It shows where the peak will be and in some respects how the spread moves through the country.  But it’s only good for that one piece of information.

Thomas Donohue > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:14

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It would have been nice if they sent the Census out with some COVID-19 tests.

We’d have a complete chart by the end of April!

Seriously, we’re only delaying the outbreak if we don’t have some kind of widespread testing/availability strategy to end the lock down....i.e. everyone is tested and falls into three categories:

A) Didn’t get it yet, stay home if you’re at risk/compromised immune system.

B) Currently h ave it (stay the fuck home)

C) Alrea dy had it, not likely contagious anymore. We hope.

Even with that info, you’re still going to have infections start to spread once restrictions are listed. This is going to be a long struggle.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 03/31/2020 at 08:14

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I think it’s quite clear and that’s why I posted it. And it presents questions, like Why is Idaho out front in its surge of cases?

Thisismydisplayname > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:15

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Testing is key, and especially antibody testing for those that have come through the other side. Until you can get the cases to taper off, like their trying to do with the lockdowns, then test and test test to keep track of new cases and asymptomatic carriers, then we won’t truly be able to keep this spread at bay.  

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 08:15

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The cost of democratic freedoms, perhaps?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > facw 03/31/2020 at 08:16

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Also, the “antibody” test that would show if you’ve already had it.

Thomas Donohue > I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker 03/31/2020 at 08:22

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It’s the Periodic T able of Infections.

Though I can’t figure out why Alaska is now called USA.

ranwhenparked > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:23

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Thats also assuming China has accurately reported their case numbers

Ash78, voting early and often > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 08:23

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I knew we could do it if we tried really hard.

I can’t wait to see Trump’s comments on what China has done right/wrong and whether we’re winning/losing in this battle.

This could be pitched any number of ways.  

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Thisismydisplayname 03/31/2020 at 08:25

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..or regain  normalcy...

Ash78, voting early and often > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:25

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Maybe 2-3 weeks ago, Washingtonians were like “Let’s all go to Idaho!”

/only half kidding

Thomas Donohue > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 08:25

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Sadly, the US death toll has now surpassed that of September 11th . Let’s hope we keep it far short of WWII.

PS9 > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:28

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The state I live in (Florida) won’t experience a bed shortage according to this , maybe. I take no pleasure in that. No one anywhere in the US should be told ‘good luck, you’re on your own, pal’ in the face of this disaster.

I say ‘maybe’ because I don’t think these projections will be accurate. The complete mismanagement of everything at the start of this slow rolling disaster is going to make the ending of it far worse than it needed to be.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:35

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You could ask the same about Vermont.

Though I don’t think Idaho is surging in cases, since this is a projection of hospital resource utilization.  I suspect this means that Idaho has inadequate hospital resources.  And I would think the same of Vermont. 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Ash78, voting early and often 03/31/2020 at 08:38

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I think there’s some irony in that Idaho is, I would have thought, as red a state as we have in this country and I think it’s fair to say that red locales are experiencing a different pandemic than blue locales. Also ironic is that the Californians who have transplanted to Idaho are now complaining about the influx of other Californians. The Blue Creep...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ranwhenparked 03/31/2020 at 08:39

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An unsafe assumption, I should think.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > PS9 03/31/2020 at 08:44

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I think this chart merely shows that your state’s peak is still a few weeks away. Then there are the efforts of Tampa’s Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne...

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Snuze: Needs another Swede 03/31/2020 at 08:46

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It’s interesting how there are different potential ways of interpreting the data.

Ash78, voting early and often > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:49

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As much as the media loves this idea, it’s correlation and not causation — apart from Dallas and Houston, almost all of the largest cities are in coastal areas with high international traffic. Then you have NV, FL, and LA (arguably all swing states) with huge convention/tourist populations. It was inevitable the spread looked like it did.

The question of whether “ blue people” move to cities or whether cities “ turn people blue” is another topic — I lean mostly towards the latter, but it’s both. Once you get a huge taste of tight communities, incredible convenience, and dependence on city infrastructure, your opinions all subtly change.

I’d love to do a totally unethical experiment where I move my fellow Alabamians (especially the rural kind) to NYC for a year to see how different their outlook is. You can’t sit in a bubble forever in a city.

Both lifestyles have their benefits, but I can’t fault people as much for the outcome of their beliefs. It’s heavily environmental.

Ash78, voting early and often > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:53

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Also your comment reminds me of the South Park where all the (white) Hawaiians who had lived there for 10-20 years got mad about all the tourists. An otherwise mediocre episode, but still funny.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 08:54

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I think he went into the link and on that site it shows projected beds needed

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Ash78, voting early and often 03/31/2020 at 08:56

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There’s the germ of a great conversation here, with two or three, at least, juicy topics. When I said different pandemics, I meant it in terms of perception and reaction; for example, embracing or eschewing social distancing. I wasn’t clear.

Tight communities? As in living in a sardine can? Because I don’t think there is much of tightness in the social sense, at least not how I’d think of it in a rural setting where your next neighbor is a tater chunk down the road and your next best resource.

As for NYC, I spent a few days there before Christmas and while I found it to be a very friendly city, I also found it to be intensely claustrophobic and life would be scurrying through a maze between warrens.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > PS9 03/31/2020 at 08:57

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Yea, I’m not sure how they are making those projections. All the anecdotal evidence I’ve been hearing out of Florida is most people are not taking this seriously and combine that with the elderly population there and I think Florida is going to end up worse than New York.

Yet that site is predicting Florida (population 21 million) will only need 13,000 beds but  New York (population 20 million) will need 73,000 beds.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Ash78, voting early and often 03/31/2020 at 08:58

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Sounds like the same idea. I see that Idaho thing, vis-a-vis the transplants to that state, as somewhat analo gous to the immigration debate in the country as a whole. Now that our progenitors all came here because resources and opportunity, time to close the gate behind us.

I like cars: Jim Spanfeller is one ugly motherfucker > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 09:04

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It’s just a really dumb map.

And using gradients of one color implies density at first glace. If I were making this figure, I would use a normal US map and use different colors for each date range.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Ash78, voting early and often 03/31/2020 at 09:07

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I’ve lived in the country, suburbia, and in a dense urban area.

I prefer the country by far. If everyone would learn not to do things to disturb the people around them, denser areas would be more tolerable, but so many people insist that their right to do whatever they want supersedes everyone else’s right to be left alone.   

Ash78, voting early and often > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 09:11

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Great points. I think I’m just always trying to reject the media mentality and think about how we all turn out the way we do — which is subtly different, but enough to change the course of national policy. It’s kind of scary when you think about that...

I’m in a unique “small town, inside a large suburb, outside of a medium city ” situation, which I find the best of all world. I can choose from various theatres, amazing restaurants, museums, etc...or I can just stroll down the road and chat with neighbors, many of whom are original owners of mid-70s houses.

Forced to choose between small town and big city, I’d go with the town . But I enjoy short trips to big cities, too. They just feel increasingly archaic to me, and not aligned with the physical space people inherently need. Like an upscale version of a slum, to put it harshly :)

Yes, the concept of community in cities is less about the social and more about the convenient/interdependent. Not “I can ask my neighbors for help” sense, but more in the “I can order from 12 different Ethiopian restaurants in a 1-mile radius” sense.

Sovande > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 09:13

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Alaska is shown lower left with Hawaii.

nerd_racing > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 09:27

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The worst part of all of this is that if you go by Crematorium capacity and urn counts, Wuhan had over 45,000 deaths, much more than the 2500 death s China claimed. They were able to lockdown a bit tighter than we will be able to.

functionoverfashion > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 09:29

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I looked that up the other day, just out of curiosity. Let’s certainly hope that’s the case, although with both of the US leaders on the COVID task force saying things like, six figures wouldn’t be surprising... holy hell

ttyymmnn > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 09:31

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For a little bit of perspective, 50–56 million people were killed in WWII by direct military action , while an additional 19 to 28 million deaths were caused by  war-related disease and famine. That’s about 3% of the world population at the time. Combine it with WWI, and the total climbs to 100 million deaths. So we’ve got a ways to go.

functionoverfashion > nerd_racing 03/31/2020 at 09:34

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Wow. That’s not surprising, and I’ve heard China’s data is being questioned. Do you have a source? I don’t doubt you, just curious to learn more. 

ranwhenparked > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 09:34

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I would be surprised and happy if it comes in under our 1968 flu season, which was the last time we went into the 6 digits for that.

PS9 > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 03/31/2020 at 09:38

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That’s because New York is currently the epicenter of the disaster. It also has the highest population in a metropolitan area in the US by far - double that of Los Angeles. Population density matters a lot more than overall population when it comes to the spread of infections, because the rate of infection is greatly influenced by how far away people are and how many of them there are in a given area.

As someone who lives here, it also cannot be said that ‘no one is taking this seriously’. Governor toadie might be following the mismanager-in-chief’s lead, but county, city, and corporate leaders reacted much faster. The county level lockdowns hit as soon as a handful of COVID cases started popping up, with major attractions, hotels, restaurants and movie theaters closing their doors soon after. The roads have sunday-morning levels of traffic on them constantly. Cops are pulling people over if they’re out after curfew, closing the few non-essential businesses that have resisted closing their doors, and dispersing crowds.

Elderly populations are high here, but also many of them live in rural places (like the folks I’m living with currently.) If you don’t live in Miami, Orlando, Tampa or Tallahassee, you live pretty far away from everyone already. All of this will enhance the comparatively slow spread of the virus here, but also working in the favor of the epidemic are nursing homes, large big city hospitals (of which orlando alone has 5 or so I believe) and interstate travel, which has been restricted, but will likely be allowed after it fails an inevitable court challenge.

nerd_racing > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 09:45

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not the most credible source, but here it is:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/wuhan-residents-dismiss-official-coronavirus-164859600.html

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > PS9 03/31/2020 at 09:45

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Yea, the population density and magnitude of NYC is the one factor that would lead to New York being worse. Glad to hear at least at a county level it’s being taken seriously. The few people I do know there though have been saying they are still seeing a lot of people out golfing in groups and seeing packed boat ramps and things like that.

I hope Florida’s more spread out population spares it from the worst, but I still feel like it’s a bold prediction to say Florida will only need ~ 1/6 th the beds that New York will.

MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 10:12

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Michigan is spiraling out of control, but I have to say I really appreciate the formatting of this chart.

BigBlock440 > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 10:12

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Though I can’t figure out why Alaska is now called USA.

I mean, it is like half of the landmass

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > TheRealBicycleBuck 03/31/2020 at 10:18

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Yes. That.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 10:18

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Until this country is able to test millions per day, this isn’t going   anywhere.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 03/31/2020 at 10:21

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That’s how I see it and I don’t need to be hyper fake media liberal zombie to conclude that we’re four to six weeks behind where we could be right now WRT testing and in the chart I posted, six weeks is the entire range of the chart .

Thomas Donohue > BigBlock440 03/31/2020 at 10:22

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According to the chart, it’s the same size as every other state!

(when looking at a Mercator map, it looks bigger than half....but it’s ‘only’ about 17%)

Thomas Donohue > ttyymmnn 03/31/2020 at 10:25

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Yeah, the total WWII numbers are astounding.  ( I was referring to US casualties, ~420,000.)

ttyymmnn > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 10:29

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Yes, but I heard the number 100 million the other day on a WWII documentary, and it caught my attention. Honestly, 420,000 US casualties doesn’t seem like all that many. 

Thomas Donohue > ttyymmnn 03/31/2020 at 10:34

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Ag reed. I was surprised at quite a few numbers when I started looking this AM .   Worldwide I would have thought lower numbers for WWII.

ttyymmnn > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 10:43

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Twenty percent of the WWII numbers are just the Holocaust. If you believe it happened.....

DipodomysDeserti > Thomas Donohue 03/31/2020 at 10:55

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Plenty more people died of disease resulting from 9/11 and those numbers are never added to the tally. Same goes for the people who were killed in needless wars, both American, Iraqi, Afghan, Pakistani...

DipodomysDeserti > ttyymmnn 03/31/2020 at 10:59

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“ If you believe it happened.....”

Is that even a question a sane person would have?

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 11:01

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Something I am concerned about is the under-reporting of cases and fatalities - and I don’t just mean places like DPRK or PRC.  I sense a little smugness in some who live in areas away from progress so to speak, and those places don’t exactly win ethics or honesty awards.   Not to mention how many coroners are not going to want to risk it.

ttyymmnn > DipodomysDeserti 03/31/2020 at 11:05

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Not a sane person. But there are plenty of deniers out there, who refuse to believe even General Eisenhower, who was there and saw the carnage with his own eyes .

The things I saw beggar description . . . . The visual evidence and the verbal testimony of starvation, cruelty and bestiality were so overpowering as to leave me a bit sick. In one room, where they were piled up twenty or thirty naked men, killed by starvation, George Patton would not even enter. He said he would get sick if he did so. I made the visit deliberately, in order to be in position to give first-hand evidence of these things if ever, in the future, there develops a tendency to charge these allegations merely to “propaganda.”

General Eisenhower, letter to General George C. Marshall

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 11:06

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Why is MN further down than WI? I will not stand for it.....

WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 11:14

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Total projected deaths is ~84,000 in the US. Or 3x what the flu was in the 18-19 flu season. Fuck. Me.

DipodomysDeserti > ttyymmnn 03/31/2020 at 11:16

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I’ve teach the   kids and grandkids of Holocaust survivors. I put Holocaust deniers in the same camp as flat earthers. Their beliefs do not warrant a mention, other than to ridicule.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 03/31/2020 at 12:00

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It's going to be interesting to see how November plays out. I think that a lot of people will be motivated to climb over piles of dead bodies if they have to to vote for somebody whose name is not Donald Trump.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > WasGTIthenGTOthenNOVAnowbacktoGTI 03/31/2020 at 12:02

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We need to keep our eye on where is the testing?

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 12:04

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Unfortunately, I suspect many would disregard piles of dead bodies in order to retain membership in the base.   I suspect many think this is still some kind of lib hoax - I mean, they are still alive, so what’s the big deal?

Interesting local data regarding local COVID-19 cases. Outlying/rural areas seem to be encountering some unpleasant stats:

https://komonews.com/news/local/experts-try-to-understand-rural-spike-in-positive-covid-19-tests

Thomas Donohue > DipodomysDeserti 03/31/2020 at 12:39

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Agreed. The total fallout was (and is) incredibly vast.

LastFirstMI is my name > Ash78, voting early and often 03/31/2020 at 13:09

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Or everybody in Idaho made a mad dash to stock up on weed from Washington.

It’s really a combination of early outbreaks in ski towns, followed by a likely small/early peak due to the spread out population.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 03/31/2020 at 13:12

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They’d have done that anyhow.

And the link? You mean, reality ?

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 13:21

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And sadly, I don’t see them fading. Approval numbers are as strong as ever, even as someone continues to lie about and deflect from his response to the crisis.

Reality seems to have no place in much of this culture.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 03/31/2020 at 13:23

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We’ll see. Gotta get through the next 8 weeks.

PS9 > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 13:26

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No, it shows more than just that. You can see the total available beds vs. what the projections think will be needed. It might be so that non-critical cases will fall well below capacity for Florida. ICU bed capacity may be overcome by a few hundred cases, but you could convert some standard bed rooms into ICU rooms temporarily to make up for that.

This is just a projection though so if, say, an imbecile got control of the federal government and tried to reopen the country before the crisis was over, far more people could get infected, or an infection spike later might leave us going over capacity. 

RallyWrench > ranwhenparked 03/31/2020 at 13:29

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Narrator: They have not. 

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 13:29

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Fingers crossed there can be some normalcy after that.  A lot of people are going to be hurting.

ranwhenparked > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 13:33

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For a national pandemic, it would not be surprising. The Hong Kong Flu pandemic killed 100,000 Americans during  1968, and about 1 million worldwide. And that was just a strain of influenza.

Ash78, voting early and often > LastFirstMI is my name 03/31/2020 at 13:35

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I automatically jumped at the assumption that cities with the strongest socioeconomic links to the Asian epicenter(s) would be the first — at least that’s how I envisioned Seattle, LA, and SF. Boston was due heavily to the Biogen conference, and those attendees took it home with them .

But no matter what, air travel is the main incubator. I’m not trying to vilify the airlines, just pointing out that they’re one of the industries that continues to “disrupt” the world over a century later. Species are just not adapted enough for what jet aircraft create (much like ships 500 years ago, but far faster, cheaper, and more widespread)

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 13:50

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My friends wife is a nurse manager, and the number her hospital has rec ei ved is inconsistent. One day 50, next zero, next 75. Even if you have the test, do you hold on to them? Use them ASAP, Do you go for obvious cases, to prove you have a problem, or test marginal?

and the part that gets overlooked. If someone is tested, and then gets infected that test from last week is next to useless. It just means last week they weren’t infected. It isn’t just testing, but testing with in a short period of time.

LastFirstMI is my name > Ash78, voting early and often 03/31/2020 at 13:58

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“I’ll trade smallpox and measles for some syphilis and all of your natural resources”

It has been nice seeing fewer contrails in the sky. Maybe we do need to become a more local species- local food, local production, local diseases....

Ash78, voting early and often > LastFirstMI is my name 03/31/2020 at 14:01

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The airplane is ~ 12 0 years old, yet still proves to be the most disruptive tech we have.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > PS9 03/31/2020 at 14:14

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I think I understand what’s being shown, availability of beds with a fat blob of possiblility overlying it. I thought it was in all a very interesting and informative bit of information from what looked at first blush like an outfit that was doing its best and ought to have some idea of what they were doing. Note that Posting Provosts have not jumped in to claim inappropriateness of the source or the information, so I feel pretty good about it.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 03/31/2020 at 14:15

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I think beds per capita would be a more useful number than beds overall.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 03/31/2020 at 14:19

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It’s going to be rough. To pretend otherwise is to pretend. My daughter is due in July with our first grandchild and is worried that her husband might not be allowed into the birthing room but I say that if she makes it home with a healthy baby, and we have to look at our grand son over Skype, that would be a resounding win .

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 03/31/2020 at 14:22

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It’s testing, testing, testing. We’re six or eight weeks behind where we oughta be on this and President Trump’s cabinet is so busy shining the president’s butt with their tongues that nobody thought of sitting down and thinking about this.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > nerd_racing 03/31/2020 at 14:39

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Wuhan is a city of 11 million people. Even without a pandemic, if they closed mortuaries for even a few days, the bodies would pile up pretty quick.

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 14:45

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Fingers crossed for her. A hospital is not where I’d want to be right now, or anytime in the next several months.

I am as worried about the economy as anything.  We’re going to see depression-era levels of unemployment.  At least some kind of stimulus has moved through, and I 100% expect at least a second round.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > fintail 03/31/2020 at 14:56

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If I knew more about more things, I probably would be worried more about the economy myself, though sick and dead people can’t go out and spend money, employed or not.

nerd_racing > BaconSandwich is tasty. 03/31/2020 at 15:03

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right, but that many though?  

fintail > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 03/31/2020 at 15:04

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I’d be more concerned about a grandchild too, especially as I assume you aren’t at risk to end up on the street.

Maybe this will speed up talk of single payer and get a little movement behind UBI, or at least a safety net that isn’ t the laughingstock of the developed world. 

BaconSandwich is tasty. > nerd_racing 03/31/2020 at 15:59

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It's quite possible. A friend of mine tried to crunch a few numbers. Supposedly Wuhan, on a normal month would have 8-9 thousand deaths a month. 

functionoverfashion > ranwhenparked 03/31/2020 at 20:52

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Wow, how is it that I’ve never heard of that, in light of current events? One might think it relevant, no? I mean, I guess they didn’t shut down the country in that instance. But 100k people seems like a lot. 

ranwhenparked > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 20:59

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No, they didn’t, in fact, the economy grew by like 5% that year. I think Vietnam and the presidential election dominated the news cycle, and also they probably didn’t have the full awareness of social distancing procedures and benefits that we have now. We’ve never really attempted to bring a major worldwide pandemic under control so aggressively before, we’re in kind of groundbreaking/uncharted territory now.

The Army did have soldiers sit only in every other chair in mess halls though. And I think there were a dvisories over non essential travel to Hong Kong, where like 15% of the population got infected.

functionoverfashion > ranwhenparked 03/31/2020 at 21:12

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I mean, I guess if 30k - 60k people die from the flu every year, 100k isn’t like a massively huge number. Still. Hmm.

ranwhenparked > functionoverfashion 03/31/2020 at 21:17

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But that's with our population now, we had less than half as many people back then.