Well, fuck!

"El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!" (lightningzone)
03/21/2020 at 14:13 • Filed to: None

DISCUSSION (46)

Nibby > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 14:23

SOON USA WILL BE #1

ranwhenparked > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 14:24

Infected numbers are going to keep rising due to the massive number of people without symptoms and how limited testing has been. Deaths are inevitably going to keep rising, too, this will kill at least 1% of the world’s population when its over. And we are probably, all of us, going to get it.

jminer > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 14:41

Fuck indeed

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > Nibby
03/21/2020 at 14:43

Kinja'd!!!

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 14:44

Kinja'd!!!

DipodomysDeserti > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 14:51

You think the world death rate is going to increase by 1%? Currently, noncommunicable diseases (CVD, cancers...) account for 73% of deaths. World population currently increases at around 1.14%. Since this virus mostly kills sick people, it will most likely just shift some of that 73% to communicable diseases.

https://ourworldindata.org/what-does-the-world-die-from

This virus is not even going to kill 1% of the people infected with it when it’s over. Practice proper hygiene, assume you’re sick, and most people will be fine. If you have underlying health issues, you’re already sick and should always be acting accordingly if you are trying to prevent death, even without a new virus floating around.

My sister is a cardio nurse, you want to know how deadly heart attacks are? They kill almost a third of people WHO HAVE THEM IN THE HOSPITAL, yet we all have no problem getting toasted on Friday night. You know who’s not getting toasted? IM. Because he already had a heart attack, realizes the risks, and is taking proper precautions. There’s a lot of people out there who don’t do that. But because CVD has been at epidemic levels for years, and you can make lots of money off it, society doesn’t care.

People panicking and talking out their asses after watching cable news and reading blogs by influencers are going to kill more people than this virus if we keep it up. Not only can your own body kill this virus, it can also kill you.

WilliamsSW > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 14:52

Scary. Also it’s a list of countries... and the Diamond Princess?

Fuck cruises.

RPM esq. > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 14:53

“ this will kill at least 1% of the world’s population when its over”

Your first sentence is obviously true and it may well get worse before it gets better, but this is an insane prediction that will not happen. The first sentence is a big part of why... . it’s very clear that thousands upon thousands have already been infected and experienced very few symptoms, so it’s almost certainly not 1% lethal among all infected people. You then assume no change whatsoever in lethality over time even as research progresses and testing and treatment improve , no eventual vaccine, and that every single person on the planet gets infected before any such improvement happens, and every one of those assumptions contravenes everything we know about epidemiology and in fact everything that we are already experiencing. There will be a vaccine by the end of the year if not the end of the summer. Not everyone on the planet will be vaccinated right away of course, but reaching even 1 percent with it would rapidly slow infection. Go outside and take a deep breath or something.

Just Jeepin' > DipodomysDeserti
03/21/2020 at 15:01

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

That depends, I think, on whether the healthcare system can withstand the pressure placed on it. Early indications are awful. We’re not ready, and we had a lot of warning to be in as poor shape as we are.

ranwhenparked > DipodomysDeserti
03/21/2020 at 15:04

Not only can your own body kill this virus, it can also kill you.

Yes, it can, and it will. I’m far more afraid of the long term effects of the control measures on all of us than I am of dying from the virus. This is the absolute end of human civilization as we know it.

VincentMalamute-Kim > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 15:16

If we try harder, I think we have a shot for the bronze.

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > WilliamsSW
03/21/2020 at 15:18

I reckon you watched Bill Maher's segment on cruise ships?

BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind > DipodomysDeserti
03/21/2020 at 15:24

^ this, but your reasoned, well though out argument will fall on deaf ears. Cardio issues kill like 2000+ Americans every day, no?

This virus sucks, but it’s not going to be the end of humanity. The earth is just doing a bit of a reset.

sony1492 > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 15:32

T he economy shitting the bed is an equally frightening situation

ranwhenparked > WilliamsSW
03/21/2020 at 15:43

Its the only fully studied closed population so far, so they’re listing it separately.

DipodomysDeserti > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 15:54

This is a continuation of civilization as we’ve known it for quite a while. Stay inside glued to a screen and make sure to be really anxious all the time.

ranwhenparked > DipodomysDeserti
03/21/2020 at 15:57

Don't worry, the screen part will stop when electric and Internet service stops

DipodomysDeserti > Just Jeepin'
03/21/2020 at 16:03

And people freaking out and rushing to the hospital when they’ll probably be fine at home is most definitely going to make sure that happens.

DipodomysDeserti > BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind
03/21/2020 at 16:06

This isn’t even a reset. We’re gonna be our own reset if this is how we now react to a pandemic.

Just Jeepin' > DipodomysDeserti
03/21/2020 at 16:06

When 10-20% of victims require hospitalization, some significant percentage of that requiring ventilators for weeks, I’m very skeptical that people overreacting is a major factor in the collapse of the system.

DipodomysDeserti > Just Jeepin'
03/21/2020 at 16:10

We have no idea how many people are infected, so we have no idea how many require hospitalization. Since there were no tests, my when my sister did clinicals she was told to send anyone with symptoms who tested negative for flu to to hospital, which overloaded them already.

People who don’t need hospitalization flooding hospitals is exactly how this gets out of hand. According to my sister’s diagnosis presentation (she’s a cardio nurse) 5% of hospitalized patients require ventilation.

ranwhenparked > RPM esq.
03/21/2020 at 16:15

Well, if that’s the case, than I really don’t think those in the know would have just shut down the entire world’s society for 18 months, throwing billions of people out of work, making most of them homeless, eliminating almost every business, and wiping out trillions of dollars in wealth. It would have to be much worse than what they’ve told us so far, because a fatality rate of well under 1% of those infected wouldn’t pass that sort of cost/benefit analysis. Starvation, stress, and suicide would end up taking a higher toll.

RPM esq. > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 16:30

Close your laptop, go outside, and take a deep breath. Seriously, it will help.

wafflesnfalafel > Nibby
03/21/2020 at 16:34

right, the US appears to be trending fairly poorly at this point , as bad as Italy, maybe a touch worse. Hopefully we’ll start to see some of the efforts to slow the spread show up in the numbers. I wondering about India too - how can they have nearly no cases?

ranwhenparked > RPM esq.
03/21/2020 at 16:35

I’m under a shelter in place recommendation and live in a city, the governor has threatened that he will make things worse if he doesn’t see enough people complying. I’m not going to be a part of making that happen, though it will anyway.

RPM esq. > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 16:44

In the observable reality in which the rest of us live, it very much is the case. A 1% rate of infection—not fatality, just infection— would merit some careful measures to contain its spread . That’s more like what we’re dealing with. I t’s been about a month in China and about a week in most of the US, not a year and a half. Obviously it’s not over yet, but nothing has been shut down for 18 months and you’re right, no cost-benefit analysis would support doing so. So it won’t happen. Maybe the cruise industry, because cruise ships are Petri dishes at the best of times? I live at US ground zero (Seattle) and yes, the temporary effects are very inconvenient and rough for a lot of people . Personally, my partner is stuck in a different country and has lost her entire income for the year, but is desperately trying to support her employees, who are doing their best to support each other . My parents are stuck in yet a different country from which my dad can’t do his job or get paid, may or may not be able to get home in the next few weeks, and his industry is going to have one of its worst years in history . It sucks a lot ! But I’d be shocked if 1% of people here get infected at all , much less die, because all this social distancing works to slow the spread of the virus. Panic and the spreading of panic is much more dangerous, so stop it and please make an attempt to rationally observe the world around you.

RPM esq. > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 16:47

You’re still allowed to breathe . Open a window.

ranwhenparked > RPM esq.
03/21/2020 at 16:49

I keep seeing 18 months bandied around as how long it will take for social distancing to work, I will feel comfortable/sane when someone in authority gets out in front of that and gives a flat out “no”, and provides some reassurance that there’s a time limit, where, if the costs of the restrictions start to clearly outweigh the benefits, they’ll be lifted. Everything’s up in the air, 2 weeks became 4 weeks, became months. Even 3 months will be devastating.

Or, at least give some guideposts of what we should be looking for to gauge when officials will be comfortable with it. Like, when weekly hospitalizations fall to “x” or weekly deaths fall to “x”, something like that.

WilliamsSW > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 16:56

I get it, it’s just jarring.

WilliamsSW > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 16:56

No- I’m not a fan of Maher or cruise ships lol

RPM esq. > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 16:58

The near-exponential curve of new cases and deaths just needs to level off and start declining. That’s all it took in China, where a lot of travel is still restricted but life is gradually getting back to something more normal in most places. The drastic measures aren’t meant to be permanent, they’re meant to quickly slow down the initial rapid spread and avoid overloading our healthcare infrastructure until treatment and, ultimately, a vaccine can catch up . Took about a month to 6 weeks of severe restrictions in China Before things started lightening up and we know more now than they did when it started. Would I plan an international trip for 6 months from now? Probably not. Do I think I’ll be sitting in traffic again every morning by then? Absolutely. Keep an eye on China’s big cities and on South Korea, if you want a barometer. In particular, Korea’s response was more thorough and uniform off the bat than ours, but they’re dealing with a lot of the same issues and are a couple weeks ahead of us.

RacinBob > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 17:00

Hold on. It’s early in the game and the most important thing is hunker down and avoid getting it yourself. We will get through it.

ranwhenparked > WilliamsSW
03/21/2020 at 17:03

Interestingly though, the fatality rate on the ship was 1%, but the passenger list was heavily skewed toward the elderly side. Its an extremely small sample size though, it makes it look like some of the elderly infected survived at a higher rate than the flu (which is like 8% for nursing home residents), but it was only 700 people total . Interesting data, just not sure how useful it will prove ultimately.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > wafflesnfalafel
03/21/2020 at 17:03

I’m guessing not a lot of testing going on. That’s just a guess, though.

ranwhenparked > RPM esq.
03/21/2020 at 17:05

Korea was also very nuanced in their response, they moved earlier and aggressively locked down specific localities with case clusters, but everything around the clusters was pretty much left alone. And, of course, the mass testing. Though, even then, they’re doing something like 1 in 500. Way more than we are, but loads of people still have to be slipping through.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > ranwhenparked
03/21/2020 at 17:33

Yeah, the average there is “older” but “still quite active”... Those cruise ships are an interesting case study for a variety of reasons.

foghat1981 > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 17:33

The fact that India isn’t on that list.....purely due to lack of tests & medical facilities . Once th ere are tests out there, it’s gonna be huge numbers.

For those that watched the Chernobyl miniseries, think of how they thought it was only 3.5 Roentgens because that was the max reading on their meters. I predict a true-up of similar proportions for India.

SBA Thanks You For All The Fish > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 17:33

Thanks for the screenshot... do you have a link for that Statistics page? you consider it accurate?

Nibby > wafflesnfalafel
03/21/2020 at 17:40

as for india... they’re not reporting as much cause they have a massive uneducated/illiterate population (25%) and that would be a disaster

RacinBob > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 17:43

Read this and act.

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > WilliamsSW
03/21/2020 at 17:48

It’s pretty good. He also called for a cruise ships ban.

However, with big money being made, it’s hard to believe such thing will happen.

Goggles Pizzano > WilliamsSW
03/21/2020 at 18:19

How about Bill Burr?

RiceRocketeer Extraordinaire > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!
03/21/2020 at 20:16

Cruise ships were dumb before the coronavirus.

DipodomysDeserti > ranwhenparked
03/22/2020 at 02:22

When that happ ens we can stop panicking. Go back to our normally scheduled lives.

Unless your li fe depends upon electricity and internet, in which case mother nature cleaned shop.

ranwhenparked > DipodomysDeserti
03/22/2020 at 09:54

Electricity is the foundation of modern civilization, when people start getting behind on their bills, shit is going to get real. Especially when winter hits

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > SBA Thanks You For All The Fish
03/22/2020 at 15:08

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/