No matter how many ways I run the numbers, there exists no financial justification for ever getting a new commuter car. [Warning: MATHS inside!]

"Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo" (thetomselleck)
03/01/2020 at 00:15 • Filed to: I can see why management hates this guy

I own a vehicle that gets 21 miles per gallon, drinks premium, in a state with some of the most expensive pump has in the United States. I had thought to myself, when will it ever be justifiable to jump ship for a new car?

I’ve made at least two posts similar futility, but here’s the one I remember:

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Though gas prices will fluctuate, I can’t account for that so we’ll use today’s prices in my state as a known variable. We’re also going to assume both vehicles are the same to insure.

Fictional commute: 60 miles per day

Extra/recreational miles per week: 120

Therefore total miles per week: 420 (boi)

Aaaaaand approximate miles per year: 21,900

Premium per gallon (IS): $3.45

Regular per gallon (Corolla): $3.09

IS mpg: 21

Corolla mpg: 35 (optimistic)

Now here’s the number many people don’t consider when they hop to a shiny new commuter: what is the premium on that shift between vehicles? I think today, the difference in value between a new Corolla and a sorted Sportcross is maybe $14,000 dollars — could be larger. That’s a big number to make up with meager fuel savings and hopefully lessened maintenance.

And, even as an added bone in favor of the newness, let’s say it costs $750 dollars more per year to maintain an old IS than a new Corolla (more oil leaks? more expensive tires? other stuff that breaks on an 18-year old car? Stuff like that).

Well, even with all of the above taken into account, it would take 5.79 years to break even (we assume less, as gas prices increase over time — but still!). That comes out 126,888 total miles . So obviously and shorter commute only extends that timeline. When you consider my current commute is actually only 17 miles per day, it would take much, much longer at my current job.

Now — NOW, now — there are other factors not quite being fully captured:

peace of mind with a newer vehicle

new features and creature comforts with a newer vehicles

warranty, though brief and kind of useless on a Corolla

18 years of less visible wear and tear — though I attempted to account for this with the difference in maintenance costs annually above

Basically, I’ve just proven that buying a new Corolla is in fact an extravagant luxury.

Thank you.

DISCUSSION (36)

Deal Killer - Powered by Focus > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 00:30

My wife and I each own a car that is between 14 - 18 years old, with 185K to 200K miles. Both run and drive reasonably well. Her Explorer gets 20MPG on the highway, while my Focus gets about 30MPG. I drive way more then she does, as her commute is about 5-10 miles, five days a week. A new car payment would be $350-400 a month, maybe a bit less if we lease a car for her. The positives for getting a new car for my wife would be reliability and increased safety. Negatives would be the $350-400 a month. I’ve been looking at a replacement for my Focus, with the intention of passing the Focus to my son, who is 17 and could use it to get to school and, I hope, employment. Hopefully, the housing market remains strong, as its been seriously busy the last few weeks and it isn’t the spring/summer selling season yet.

gettingoldercarguy > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 00:31

Plus.... The IS responds much better to that turbo kit you’re installing this summer. Right?

Right????

AestheticsInMotion > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 00:36

I’ve been thinking about car math a lot lately. At the end I usually start thinking about selling all vehicles and riding a bicycle to and from work . Or walking. Or Uber. For something I love, cars sure do seem to be a major cause of stress for me...

bob and john > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 00:51

buying new is never the most cost effective. ever.

on the flip side, it can be the least amount of ball-ache. also, maintenance costs on the lexus could add up VERY quickly compared to the rola.

Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 00:54

Ha I’m with you all the way, though don’t show this to too many of your friends, lest you lose the opportunity to buy their 10 year old Highlander they bought new.

For me, I will probably win out on the maths, though the only expensive failing point on the 1.8 Cruze is the weak automatic transmission, which I am afraid may be on its way out.

camarov6rs > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 00:56

Did you factor in insurance and safety? I would think the new corolla would be a much safer bet in and accident. Plus if you are in a minor accident what would it be like to source parts for your current vehicle?

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > camarov6rs
03/01/2020 at 01:01

The IS has six airbags in the front row, so it’s not a death trap, though a car 18 years newer should be safer.

Parts? As long as they don't hit the rear...

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > bob and john
03/01/2020 at 01:03

It certainly hasn't been cheap, I'll give you that.

bob and john > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 01:12

mine is currently begging for a new O2 sensor and a rear muffler...bleh.

camarov6rs > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 01:13

Small overlap front impact....

Not implying the IS is not safe just that the Corolla may be safer :)

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > gettingoldercarguy
03/01/2020 at 01:16

glemon > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 01:22

I haven’t done the math exactly, but the the same thoughts go through my head Everytime I fill my IS with premium. I want something that gets better mileage. 30 mpg on regular is going to cost me half as much as 20 mpg on premium. I would buy another used car, but wouldn’t want to downgrade too much . So figure 12,000 or so if I shop and get a used Mazda 3 or similar. I drive about 8000 miles a year. I save $6-700 or so.

My IS has been very trouble free, and still feels like a luxury car to me. But I grew up with no A/C and manual windows.

So logic rules. Don’t forget depreciation, much bigger hit on a new car.

Flip side, have fun and try to make the math work, used Nissan Leaf, original Honda Insight, or not too old VW diesel.

glemon > Deal Killer - Powered by Focus
03/01/2020 at 01:29

2002 IS at 100,000 miles, and 2007 Fit for my wife at 96,000. Both pretty much drive like new and have been very dependable . I talked about the IS already in this post. My wife, bless her heart, said she wanted a manual when we bought the Fit new in 2006. I thought her love of three pedals would last about 6 months. Nearly 14 years later, hands getting a little stiff, she says she might like an automatic (swapping cars doesn't make sense, she uses the Fit for her business, and the IS eats half the profit in gas). I offer to start looking, she says it would cost too much just to no shift and the Honda is a fine car. Nice.

lone_liberal > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 01:37

As someone who just jumped from a 14 year old car to a new(er) one I would say that at some point you have to draw the line. Where that is varies with individual circumstances and wants, but everyone gets there eventually. You have a car that still interests you ( and us!) and isn’t a money pit so it wouldn’t make sense to get rid of it just to have the latest thing.

Wacko > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 01:47

Unless electric or plug in hybrid and depending on the miles.

Daily Drives a Dragon - One Last Lap > gettingoldercarguy
03/01/2020 at 01:51

I mean, it’s the higher compression bottom end, but 10 or 12 pounds should do nicely.

And then it’ll scatter that automatic on the floor, but that’s a later problem

thatsmr > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 02:27

I drive less than 7k miles per year getting around 17mpg average in my GS350, and have a card tied to my grocery points which saves me at least 75 cents/gallon on every fill of premium. Worth every penny all around

Spanfeller is a twat > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 05:43

But the Sportcross is a cool car...

Old-Busted-Hotness > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 05:56

You’re not supposed to run the numbers. You’re supposed to shout “new shiny!” and sign whatever papers they shove in front of you.

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 06:36

Yes...yes you have. And yet you still dream...

Why?

ItalianJobR53 - now with added 'MERICA and unreliability > Daily Drives a Dragon - One Last Lap
03/01/2020 at 07:38

Burn that bridge when you get to it

Cash Rewards > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 07:42

Counterpoint: use your money for things that would make to happy

Future next gen S2000 owner > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 08:34

Your numbers will always turn out right. For me, once a vehicle starts spending lots of time in the shop for fixes, it’s time to move on. Not that the car is unreliable or doesn’t fulfill its duties, I just don’t want to deal with the headache of figuring out how to get to and from the shop. This typically occurs somewhere between 150-200k.

Yes, I could fix things in my driveway but I’d rather spend that time with the hellspawn before they become teenagers.

TLDR: you can almost never financially justify a new car over your existing one, it's the tangential n activities that you have to consider.

Under_Score > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 08:49

https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/802647066/overview?aff=share_other

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Future next gen S2000 owner
03/01/2020 at 09:00

I have a coworker with an old 5 series, that has 250k and is a perpetual money pit. “it only cost me 1500, this time” Yeah and 2 days of unexpected missed work.

When you’re using vacation days to fix unexpected breakdowns, its time to get rid of it.

Future next gen S2000 owner > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
03/01/2020 at 09:08

Exactly. Unless you really love a car, those days are better spent doing something else.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 09:19

When I got married, we moved into a house that was halfway between where I was in grad school and where she went to work. Halfway by commute time, not miles. An hour and fifteen minute commute got me 80 miles and her 35 miles.

My truck was getting old, so I started looking around for something new. My mom, the accountant, took me through a similar exercise. I realized that it was just better to drive my truck until it died. That took another fifteen years....

Grindintosecond > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 09:45

But, heated leather? The maths variable expression is Aw for Awesomeness. You forgot to put that in.

Napoli > Cash Rewards
03/01/2020 at 10:32

There definitely needs to be a balance in life. Sure it may make more sense according to an Excel spreadsheet to continue driving a 15+ year old car but none of this really matters if you are dead tomorrow.

KingT- 60% of the time, it works every time > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 16:26

That 4Runner seems to be overtaking a lil too aggressively it seems like

Anyway, back to the topic. 17MPG on Premium. Yes it’s fast but I hate filling up literally every 2 weeks.

Next vehicle needs to have 25+ combined.

Maxima Speed > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 22:36

I agree Ive been saying this for years. You could buy a different beater every year and still be spending less money for many years than you would to buy a new car. Ok maybe thats just a justification for me to buy beaters but still you get the point. lol.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/01/2020 at 22:57

counterpoint if you live in an area of heav y salt use, your 20year old car could be q uite terrifying

dtg11 - is probably on an adventure with Clifford > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/02/2020 at 09:51

Perhaps a Lexus CT200h?

Kinja'd!!!

Based off your numbers, and the cost of this car ($17k, CPO, low miles) , it would save ~$2025 per year in gas alone, not to mention repairs. And with an $8000 price difference (generous, considering how much IS wagons are worth) you’d be even in just under 4 years, not including repairs. With repairs, the difference goes to $2775/year, it’d be even in 2.8 years, or 61,320 miles.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/03/2020 at 09:40

Now run the numbers on a Corolla hybrid.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
03/03/2020 at 09:42

Gross, that’s a sedan

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
03/03/2020 at 09:46

Not as a real option - just a hypothetical (something that gets 50 mpg).

And then again with a Tesla Model 3.