"duurtlang" (duurtlang)
10/09/2020 at 16:44 • Filed to: None
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"duurtlang" (duurtlang)
10/09/2020 at 16:44 • Filed to: None | 0
| 18 |
Manuél
I know the answer to that question for my native The Netherlands. It’s 2019. In 2014 manuals had a market share of roughly 75% among new cars. In 2019? 48%. This dramatic drop is said to be caused by multiple factors:
The dramatic increase of the market share of fully electric vehicles; <1% in 2014, 14% in 2019
Hybrids (7.5% market share in 2019)
CO2 emissions taxation, reducing the price difference and sometimes even making the slushbox cheaper
The elimination of the classic downsides of the automatic
The ‘only grandmas who can’t drive have an automatic’ stigma seems to be gone
!!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! : 13% in 2014, 31% in 2019
Source: !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!
Automatics: no clutch pedal. I know electrics don’t tend to have an automatic gearbox, but they most certainly don’t have a clutch.
Also interesting: The diesel market share was 27% in 2014, and only 7% in 2019.
That link just keeps on giving. Weight/height/width comparison of the last 30 years (top 50 best selling vehicles)
Blue is width in m, pink is height in m, green is empty weight in kg. I guess 2005 marked the start of emission based taxation...
(Blue is width in m, pink is height in m, green is empty weight in kg. I guess 2005 marked the start of emission based taxation...)
So, in which year started automatics outselling manuals in your country?
Cé hé sin
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 16:54 |
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They haven’t yet, but the percentage has gone from 33 to 40 from last year to this. Much of this is down to EVs and hybrids but not all - between them they’ve gone from 12 to 19%.
Who is the Leader - 404 / Blog No Longer Available
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 16:55 |
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Also that Manuel Transmission can be a real knob.
WilliamsSW
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 16:58 |
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Probably about 1958 here.
Thomas Donohue
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 16:59 |
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In the US I’d say early sixties? Though the ratio may have flipped back for a bit when we started importing more foreign cars.
jminer
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 16:59 |
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I don’t know where to find that data in the US, but it had to have been over 20 years ago.
I’m basing this on how few manuals are available second hand in my searches.
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WilliamsSW
> jminer
10/09/2020 at 17:01 |
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I found that in 1987, manuals were around 29% of new cars. You have to go waayyyy further back.
I would bet money that the inflection point was in the 1950's, probably mid-to late.
Just Jeepin'
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:04 |
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1987, US manual sales were ~3 0%. Still looking for the transiti on point.
https://www.fix.com/blog/manual-vs-automatic-transmissions/
facw
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:05 |
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I don’t know when it happened in the US, but I’d guess sometime in the ‘80s. I do know that as of late 2019, manuals were 1.1% of new car sales here, and given the relatively rapid rate of decline, I would be surprised if we are at less than 1% now.
dogisbadob
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:05 |
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In the US, probably the 50s, maybe
the 60s at the latest
farscythe - makin da cawfee!
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:12 |
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welp..2019 i guess..ill take your word for it
i have noticed more and more of the shitboxes i like to shop for are automatics
a 1995 suzuki alto automatic? *shudders*
tho..the older automatic econoboxes do tend to be remarkably clean....kinda makes you believe it really was owned by a little old lady that didnt drive much but meticulously kept up with the maintenance
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jminer
> WilliamsSW
10/09/2020 at 17:32 |
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Wow, that's awful.
BvdV - The Dutch Engineer
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:37 |
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The height one is interesting, you can basically see the MPV trend start and slowly grow into the early Crossover trend (first gen Tucson etc)
fintail
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:49 |
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I’d be astounded it if it was after 1965 in the US, probably before 1960, and probably no more than a few years later for Canada.
Jb boin
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 17:50 |
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In France, it was 35% of automatics in 2019 (and it was 28% in 2017) .
Diesel was 34.12% in 2019 (and this year 31,0 % from january to september) and SUV/CUVs were 38.29% .
—
The top 5 best selling automatics last year were the Peugeot 3008 then the 208 then the 308 then the 5008 and the Citroën C5 Aircross in 5th position (which is the cousin of the 3008) ; all comes wi th the same 8 speed torque converter from Aisin .
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WilliamsSW
> jminer
10/09/2020 at 18:17 |
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I convinced myself that the inflection point was *before* 1961.
Ok so I did some digging into sales by brand for 1961 - the earliest year I could find reasonably good data.
I assumed that 100% of the higher end brands (Buick, Cadillac, Lincoln, Olds, Imperial, DeSoto) were automatics. Not 100% correct because Olds and Buick sold some manual compact cars, but close enough.
I assumed 100% of import were manuals. Probably close to true.
I assumed AMC and Studebaker were 100% manual. This is a pretty bad assumption, but it’s only 6% of the market.
I assumed Pontiac and Mercury were 15% manuals. In reality, Pontiac might be higher than that, but Mercury is probably lower.
So, that left me with a plug for Chevy/Ford/Dodge/Plymouth, because those brands would have a good mix of both. In order for total sales to be 50/50, I had to assume that almost 60% of those brands were manuals. No way in hell that’s correct. My guess would be ~35% or so.
tl;dr - in 1961, about 60% of new cars sold in the US were automatics.
SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media
> duurtlang
10/09/2020 at 18:25 |
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Relatively recently in Oz...sometime early this century.
One of the driving forces behind the change (apparently) is the mandated active safety systems required by EURO/ANCAP and our Australian Design Rules. The prattle is that some of these systems only work or work best in conjunction with a computer controlled transmission. Since they are required in order to get a 5 star safety rating in passenger vehicles...the manual isn’t always made available.
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WilliamsSW
> fintail
10/09/2020 at 18:49 |
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I’ve convinced myself it was in the 1950's here. Wasted too much work time looking at 1961 and figured that manuals were maybe 40% of new cars that year.
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fintail
> WilliamsSW
10/09/2020 at 19:21 |
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I can believe it. Although almost everything could still be had with a manual, automatics were not an insanely expensive option, were “modern”, and by 1960 the tech had been around for ~20 years, so it was somewhat proven.