The End of the Minivan?

"HammerheadFistpunch" (hammerheadfistpunch) 09/19/2019 at 18:39 • Filed to: minvan, rant, cnbc

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I watched this last night and I gotta say, think their conclusions are antiquated and circumstantial.

Fashion? “uncool”? Maybe but hardly the big picture.

1. The need for family haulers its smaller now than it’s ever been.

We have smaller families and more people are staying single.

2. Options. If you needed a spacious car you bought a wagon or a full size SUV, that is until the crossover

S o you’ve got a family of 2.5 instead of 3+, but you’ve got a lot of stuff. Do you buy

a. a sedan

b. a full size SUV

c. A van

D. a midsized crossover

You bought the one that fit the size and needs of your crew. 5 seats is all you need, but you have more stuff to cart around

Also, because of the growth in recreation and outdoor activity you want and need something more capable and versatile.

Oh, you also own a towable toy (camper, boat, trailer)  of some kind.

3. Replicability - The minivan has been effectively replaced. The mileage penalty for a crossover is minimal, or nonexistent compared to a vans that have gotten much bigger and harder to park and pilot. Why drive a 7 seat van that gets 17 around town when you could get a hybrid RAV4 that seats 5 people in more comfort, and gets 40 mpg?

If you still need the space, there is hardly a penalty anymore for choosing a crossover.

And don’t tell me minivans drive better, because no one’s buying it. New crossovers are low, well tuned and drive every bit as good as a minivan of equal size.

Space utilization - There isn’t a better use of interior volume than vans, but as I said before...most people don’t actually need it anymore. Where 7 seats are mostly for occasional use (kids friends, carpools, etc). And given the size they’ve grown into to facilitate that space they are as wide as an F150 (79.9 for the F150, 80 inches for a Pacifica) their size is often less an asset than a liability.

Look, Im not saying there isn’t room in the decline of the minivan for the typical “because soccer mom!” trope, because there is something to that. I am saying that “I bought a crossover and not a van because I didn’t want to look like a soccer mom...” isn’t really working anymore because, well, you just bought a mommy mobile as everyone has uniformly moved to crossovers.

Don’t like that crossovers are taking over? I get it, completely. Want to unload your anger on the loss of wagons or coupes on them? Fine by me. Want to tell me that it’s a fad for insecure people to feel macho and unlike a suburbanite?

Not going to fly. There is a reason for their market dominance and its tie in to the death of the minivan:

It’s the right package for the market.

I will also say that I see nothing wrong with the van, so save your van defense speech. Im not trying to undermine the van. My beef is with the lame, trodden out excuses of so-called industry experts. give me some numbers and data, not “because lame!”

Under_Score > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 18:45

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This is leading to something else: wagons and sedans being seen as “cool cars” because everyone’s parents drove crossovers. A few companies have already used this logic for their sedan launches.  Another shift might happen in 15 years. Crossovers are definitely the best package of the vehicle types, but just because they’re a good package, like minivans, doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll last.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 18:51

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1. Proliferation of r ental cars for 0.5 % use cases of most families
2. Increased congestion in all metro areas due to economic growth
3. Proliferation of various CUV size classe s offering similar space efficiency in smaller packages

I’d like a smaller MPV with sliding doors, like an upscale  Mazda 5 or Ford Transit Connect.  Plenty of these available in Asian markets.

HammerheadFistpunch > Under_Score 09/19/2019 at 18:53

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There is no such thing as an every-lasting vehicle, of course they will change and adapt.  T hey are already morphing closer and closer back to wagons all the time.  I think people need to let go of this idea that the crossover is a fad...its just the new normal car.

HammerheadFistpunch > Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever 09/19/2019 at 18:54

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exactly.  

Highlander-Datsuns are Forever > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 19:01

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We have have been living with a 1990 isuzu pickup and a 2006 mazda 3 sedan all week while the Outback is in the shop getting subarued. It’s been actually fine. The only thing that is not possible is takin g 4 people plus the big dog.

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 19:16

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Agreed. Ride height is all over the place, but most p eople want the taller body that CUVs have.

Also, sedans have actually been the intermediate styling fad.  Pre-war cars were mostly built like today’s CUVs, with tall bodies and blunt rear ends.

Jay, the practical enthusiast > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 19:33

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We have a Mazda5 minivan. We like it but we had a Toyota Highlander last summer for a month and it can do everything our minivan can do. 7 seats, tall roof, flat floor. The only difference between a 7 seat SUV and a minivan is the sliding doors. 

mazda616 > Jay, the practical enthusiast 09/19/2019 at 20:14

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This.

We just bought a ‘19 Highlander and it is the perfect  “MAM” (minivan-avoidance-mobile).

For Sweden > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 20:16

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We knew this would happen. CNBC let Mack go freelance, and they lost their good takes.

SiennaMan > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 20:29

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I don’t disagree with anything you said about what’s going on in the market. (though i am one of those folks who lament it)

Minivans have basically replaced conversion vans in most use cases and minivans have been replaced by crossovers and suvs. One thought I had, and I don’t have any data so this is just spitballing, but I feel like the rise of the small suv crossover corresponds neatly with the increasing height of doors for the sake of side impact protection, which means if you want to actually see all around you you have to sit higher, ie a crossover instead of a car. An example of my point, visibility is much worse in all directions out of a Hon da HRV than it was out of the Dodge Omni I drove in high school and everything on the HRV sits higher off the ground..

415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°) > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 21:49

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Unless it’s a Delica or something similar I wouldn’t want one over a wagon. 

shop-teacher > HammerheadFistpunch 09/19/2019 at 22:21

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Yep. Agreed. 

Monkey B > HammerheadFistpunch 09/20/2019 at 08:42

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the van needs to get mini again...the Mazda 5 shouldn’t have been an outlier, it should have had a segment.

HammerheadFistpunch > Monkey B 09/20/2019 at 09:25

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agreed.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > HammerheadFistpunch 09/20/2019 at 16:17

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Crossovers are not roomy nor easy to get into, and I defy anyone with a crossover to use it to bring their new washing machine home from the store, or load up some 2x4s from the Home Depot.

Or sit in the side opening and change a diaper.

But the car makers (and Big Oil) only give us what we want , right?

HammerheadFistpunch > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/20/2019 at 16:20

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But...I just brought home a new washing machine in my SUV, and my split gate is 100x a superior changing station to a sliding door opening...

JustAnotherG6 > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/20/2019 at 16:27

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I prefer bringing home 2x4's in my G6. Fold the back seat down and away we go.

JustAnotherG6 > HammerheadFistpunch 09/20/2019 at 16:29

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I’ll take a van over an SUV just for the sliders and lower loading floor. (x2 for stow and go! )

HammerheadFistpunch > JustAnotherG6 09/20/2019 at 16:30

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They are kings of cargo loading, no questions there. 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > HammerheadFistpunch 09/20/2019 at 16:50

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Then again, my youngest just turned 18 and my youngest automobile is 7 years old and my daily-driving van is 22 years old and gets about 12 mpg in mixed driving, 15 mph towing the tent trailer, and 18 running slick. And its 4.3L engine is well understood...

I drove a GMC Canyon this summer and I wrote about it a bit here. The High-Feature VVT 6-banger is powerful and efficient and with the 7-speed — or was it 8? — trans behind it, boy, was it a driver. Fabulous driver seat as well, and a very good voice command Blue Tooth thingy as well. And probably pushing 40 grand and you’ll need NASA if it ever breaks down and fun to rent and I’ll stick with my Safari.

But that’s just me. I like to march to my own drummer and I set the tempo.

But minivan: whatta fabulously sensible, practical  vehicle. Not sexy, but sensible.

HammerheadFistpunch > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/20/2019 at 16:52

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I agree the Minivan is a very practical vehicle, especially the truckish safari, but its not what consumers really need anymore.  At least most.  Im working with a couple right now that just went from sedan to transvit van overnight (they had 3 kids then quadruplets) 

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > HammerheadFistpunch 09/20/2019 at 17:00

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How have consumer needs changed? They need to go offroading more in between changing diapers?

Manufacturers claim to give us what we want, but I think they tell us what we want first, and then we believe them. Or some of us... The ones they recruit for their focus groups...

All of this is moot because my budget would never support the purchase of a new automobile. Even if I had boo-coo expendable income, I’d still acquire used cars. So you can take my comments here and bottle them as hot air.

HammerheadFistpunch > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 09/20/2019 at 17:08

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Sales numbers don’t lie. Minivans are a declining sales segment despite the fact that there are plenty of viable options (K ia, Toyota, Chrysler, Dodge, Honda). Manufactures aren’t telling us we don’t want them, we are telling manufactures by not buying them.