Well, Boeing is fucked

"El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First!" (lightningzone) 09/10/2019 at 14:04 • Filed to: None

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I guess.

ttyymmnn > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 09/10/2019 at 14:45

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Intersting arbument, but there is a lot of “could”, “potentially”, etc. Aside from the economics, which will work out once the MAX is rectified, I think the most salient point made (at least in the first six minutes, I don’t have time to finish it) is the loss of respect for the FAA. That certainly makes Boeing’s job harder.

I’m also more concerned about the latest problem with the 777X. They were cranking it up to 150% operating pressurization and a door blew off. Now, granted, this is more pressure than they would ever need, but they are also trying to take an older design and pressurize it to 6,000 feet, like the 787, rather than 8,000 feet as it was designed. They are also enlarging the windows. Which immediately screams “COMET!” to me and discussions about pressurization cycles rather than a over pressurization test. Add the problems with the GE engines, and Boeing has another headache to deal with.

djmt1 > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 09/10/2019 at 14:46

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I expect Chinese airliners to do as well as Chinese  high speed trains when it comes to exports. 

facw > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 09/10/2019 at 14:49

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I can’t watch the video now, but my big feeling is the problem is that Airbus (and Comac obviously) have factories in China and Boeing doesn’t, which is going to make it tempting for state-controlled Chinese airlines to skip the Boeings. I don’t think Boeing building planes in China is the solution though, unless the problem is “how can we enable the Chinese to steal our manufacturing techniques so they can be undercutting us in 10-20 years”.

NKato > djmt1 09/10/2019 at 15:19

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And about as reliably as most Chinese exports in 5 years. Which isn't much. 

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > djmt1 09/10/2019 at 15:20

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It’ s foolish to underestimate any Chinese company and economic area. As many stated before, they have unthinkable amounts of ambition, mountains of money and HR resources, American and European companies can only dream of.

Sure, the world is not rushing to buy Chinese trains, yet...

But the Chinese have time on their side and they have mastered the waiting game. The global economy is providing them with plenty opportunities and Europe and America cannot respond appropriately, Europe is too open, including to countries who aren’t really opening up their own markets(like China ) and America is going into a stupid and self damaging trade war with China. Both solutions are bad. How bad? This bad:

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Transportation/Chinese-train-maker-CRRC-to-take-over-German-factory

With one purchase, and for chewing gum money, China gained 25% of the European diesel locomotive market. Yes, you may argue that diesel belongs in the last century and that all transportation should move to clean energy, but in many places diesel locomotives are still needed for routine transport.

The conclusion is that China is in it to win it. In every aspect. They cannot and won’t allow to be ignored. The EU is foolish not to consider them a threat for its companies. They mistakenly denied the merger between Alstom and Siemens and are mistakenly shooting down a possible merger between Spanish companies Talgo and CAF.

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > ttyymmnn 09/10/2019 at 15:34

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If they make it through the next few years as a company, without a spectacular event occurring,  I'd be surprised. It's the perfect storm at Boeing. 

El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! > facw 09/10/2019 at 15:36

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Not solely the manufacturing location. It’s a sum of factors that are contributing to Boeing’s Chinese problem.

Cé hé sin > djmt1 09/10/2019 at 16:08

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They’ll come. At the moment CRRC have plenty of work back home but they’ll want to spread themselves.

Third world countries without an indigenous rail industry to protect are already buying Chinese rolling stock.

I recall reading recently that some central European operator has ordered Chinese EMUs.

Cé hé sin > El Relámpago(LZone) - Humanity First! 09/10/2019 at 16:15

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It might sound dramatic to say that CRRC has bought 25% of the European diesel loco market, but that’s a niche. Vossloh in Kiel only make small diesel shunters and light freight locos. The business loses money and they’ve been trying to sell for some time. If Siemens or Bombardier wanted the business (actually, Siemens sold it to Vossloh in the first place! ) they’d have bid.

So far as I know Vossloh only make a few dozen locos a year. In comparison, Siemens make something over a hundred electrics a year and Bombardier I think  d o something similar.