Subaru Ascent - How Did Our Last Predicted Sales Success Actually Do?

"Arrivederci" (arrividerci) 07/31/2019 at 08:20 • Filed to: Subaru, ascent

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With all the new Corvette hoopla and suppositions about how it’ll sell unbelievably well, I was reminded about the last car that we all seemed to agree would reset the market and sell unbelievably well – the Subaru Ascent. I saw an Ascent on the road yesterday and it got me thinking about how !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! for our friends at Fuji Heavy.

So, I decided to do a very shallow dive into seeing how it’s actually doing, after a little over a year on the market. The short of it is, it’s doing exactly as well as Subaru planned for it to be doing, but it’s definitely not lighting the market on fire.

!!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! , Subaru was looking for about 60,000 annual sales and they met that rate in 2018 and look to be on the path to exceeding it this year with YTD sales (thru June) of approximately 40,108. That’s great, but let’s see how it stacks up against the a cross section of the competition, thanks to our friends at !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! :

Chevrolet Traverse – 72,375

Ford Explorer – 101,823

GMC Acadia – 59,621

Honda Pilot – 68,452

Mazda CX9 – 11,872

Nissan Pathfinder – 36,312

Toyota Highlander – 111,183

Volkswagen Atlas – 37,726

It’s not exactly lighting the market segment on fire, only outselling the CX9, Atlas and the aging (and rather bad) Pathfinder.

TTAC took a little bit of a deeper dive in their article late last year, finding that, instead of stealing sales from the Highlander, Pilot and company, it was instead cannibalizing Subaru sales:

“After going on sale in June (2018), the first full three months of availability produced 14,683 Ascent sales in America. Q3 sales of the Outback, meanwhile, fell 13 percent, while Forester sales were down 3 percent in the same period. Those two crossovers combined for an 8,650-unit decline in the third quarter, negating much of the Ascent’s additional volume.”

What TTAC didn’t seem to consider was that the sales of the Outback were already trending down, given that it was due for a refresh (which it just received). The Forester down 3% is roughly in line with quarterly sales fluctuations and I don’t think can be necessarily directly attributed to the Ascent.

So, what does it all mean? It means that while the Ascent isn’t exactly setting the market on fire, it’s still exceeding Subaru’s own sales goals and providing a landing spot for customers who love the brand but would’ve needed to look to competitors when they outgrew Subaru’s old lineup.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 08:53

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When I sat in one at an auto show I found both rows of rear seats to feel quite small. I couldn’t see taking one over an Outback unless I absolutely needed 3 rows, which most people really don’t if they are being honest.

Ash78, voting early and often > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 09:09

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I’ve seen a lot more than I expected, but nowhere near the Atlas, and WAY short of Pilot and Highlander.

I mention Atlas because I live in a suburban spot that is very competitive for “family vehicles” and has exactly one Subie and one VW dealer in the vicinity.

My take on the Ascent: It offers way too little in addition to the Outback. The third row is all but useless and I just don’t see anyone choosing it over Pilot if you honestly need the third row on a daily basis.

But car classes/comparisons are not a good metric — how many people chose a minivan instead? Most of these types of comparison tend to get hyper focused on an “inner circle” of competitors and completely miss the reality of car shopping. Not picking on you , the car companies do it all to a fault.

fintail > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 09:26

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I can believe the cannibalizing part - this will appeal to Subie people looking for something larger for their 2nd doggo or another devilspawn . Still, I see these every day in suburban Seattle, but that isn’t a surprise.

412GTI > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 09:34

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Interesting to see the numbers. Sometimes I think about this when I see one in traffic. I live in a pretty Subaru heavy area with lots of dealer and crappy weather to justify having awd. However, I just don’t see that many on the roads. Compared to say a Highlander or Pilot which I generally see at least 5+ during my commute. Even the Atlas seems to be more popular in this area which is interesting.

To me that says the Ascent has a packaging problem. It might offer third row space, but it’s tight and not as family friendly compared to some of its competitors . I think the Subaru charm wears off when you just need a vehicle to haul around kids and their things. 

Arrivederci > 412GTI 07/31/2019 at 09:41

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I think that’s a good call out - in this category space seems to reign supreme, and with the Ascent lacking a bit in that area, it might be a tougher sell against some of the competition.  I also find it a little strange that I see maybe 2x-3x more Atlases than Ascents around here.

Arrivederci > Ash78, voting early and often 07/31/2019 at 09:44

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I mean, the peer group was both the simplest comparison to make and what the industry generally accepts.  It would also take some serious data crunching to see how the Ascent is impacting minivan sales (if at all) or how minivans might be siphoning off Subaru buyers who want a larger vehicle, but not the Ascent.

Arrivederci > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 07/31/2019 at 09:46

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Really, they don’t.  My wife was bummed that the Sorento we bought (2.0T EX) wasn’t available with a third row, instead we got a very large cargo area with an under floor organizer, which I honestly prefer.  I can’t think of any scenario where we would’ve needed the (small) third row, outside of maybe 1 time in the last two years we’ve owned it.

Arrivederci > fintail 07/31/2019 at 09:47

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Yep - I think the endgame here for Subaru is just to make a vehicle that will keep buyers in the family as they “grow” out of the Outback or Forester.  Even though the Ascent really isn’t that much bigger.

Ash78, voting early and often > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 09:50

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True — I just think it’s interesting today that we’re still doing competitive comparisons the same way we did 50+ years ago, just with more sub-classes.

I’d imagine every car needs to be compared with 3 “rings” of competitors, something like that. The data is surely there for it, just not readily available to us.

The worst? EVs. Most of them compared (in sales AND in comparison tests) against other EVs, which is almost nonsensical. If I’m considering an EV for the first time, I also want to see it against traditional cars. Not many outlets even make those comparisons.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > Ash78, voting early and often 07/31/2019 at 09:58

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What Subaru should have done instead of the Ascent is an Outback-ified minivan. Make a Outback XL, basically a minivan with a slightly lower roofline, a slight lift, and AWD standard. I think it would do well with the “I’ll never drive a minivan” crowd since it wouldn’t quite look like a minivan and would look a bit more rugged.

Ash78, voting early and often > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 07/31/2019 at 10:03

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Just think of the cross-marketing opportunities with the outdoor/overlanding crowd. It could be the first minivan to get mass acceptance across several segments. The aftermarket add-ons (roof tents, storage shelves, kitchenettes) could be limitless.

The next VW Microbus.

fintail > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 10:28

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I have to wonder if a years down the road, there will be a model another half-size up.

TorqueToYield > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s 07/31/2019 at 10:36

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With 2 rear facing car seats and a dog I’m about tapped out on space in the Outback. If I want to carry anybody other than one person in the passenger seat we need to take 2 cars. If I want to take the dog he takes up half  the trunk and it means on long road trips I have to pack extra carefully and leave some stuff home even with a roof topper.

So yeah, anybody with 2 or more young kids and/or pets is looking at 3 rows. Car seats are HUGE today.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > TorqueToYield 07/31/2019 at 11:03

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anybody with 2 or more young kids and/or pets

There are about 127.6 million households total.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/183635/number-of-households-in-the-us/

There are about 17.6 million households in the US with kids under 5 .

https://www.statista.com/statistics/679812/number-of-households-with-children-by-age/

If you factor in the “and dog” caveat (let’s be realistic most people aren’t road tripping with their cat), that probably at least halves the households to 8.8 million. So about 7% of households. And realistically those households are only going to buy one large vehicle, so the percentage of buyers that NEED a three row is probably half of that again. While not insignificant, it’s not as large as the number of three row SUVs would lead you to believe.

Arrivederci > fintail 07/31/2019 at 11:12

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Undoubtedly!  Subaru Ascent XL, Ascent L, Ascent Max, etc

Arrivederci > Ash78, voting early and often 07/31/2019 at 11:12

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That’s a great call-out on the EVs.

ZHP Sparky, the 5th > fintail 07/31/2019 at 12:07

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Same here in Portland, these things are everywhere. The question of whether these things were even selling well seemed completely out of left field to me, given how popular these things are here . But then again, the entire PNW is a captive audience for Subaru even if other options exist that MIGHT be a better fit for many of those buyers.

MrSnrub > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 12:23

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I was in Colorado last week and I saw quite a few of them. Not surprised it’s doing pretty well. They’re not bad looking either, at least as far as Subarus go (not saying much)

I wish the CX-9 was doing better. I could actually see myself driving one, it almost looks more like a very large stylish wagon than an SUV . But then maybe that’s why it’s not selling better.

fintail > ZHP Sparky, the 5th 07/31/2019 at 12:39

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If one goes by PNW road observations, Subaru is on par with Toyota and Honda. As I don’t have a doggo, 1.6 kids, and a beard, I can’t get into it even if they are perf ectly good cars.

wafflesnfalafel > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 13:02

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Neat article - thx. Interesting to see what really happened. I’d be curious to see if they have data tracking folks that previously might have jumped to a Highlander or Pilot but instead stayed with Subie and got an Ascent vs previous non-subie owners.

I can tell you many folks I work with do really want a 3rd row, (regardless of what brand they like.) They might not have many kids but I get the feeling they want to be able to haul around all the kids’ friends legally/belted to activies, etc.

ultimum2000 > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 13:02

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Subaru Sales rep here- to my understanding this actually was a combination of things, the largest one being supply and demand, Subaru literally could not build them fast enough, the other one was at the beginning of the model year Subaru was super focused on quality, and there were some quality holds that slowed production even further, I expect next year, we will see alot more success with this vehicle. 

Arrivederci > ultimum2000 07/31/2019 at 13:22

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That’s really cool to know. I was going to include the Telluride in the competition, but imagine it’s suffering from that same problem. Kia just isn’t delivering them fast enough, so I didn’t think it would be a good comparison.  That’s also why I didn’t talk much on 2018 numbers, I knew it would take Subaru a bit to ramp up, even though it has been on sale since last June.

Arrivederci > MrSnrub 07/31/2019 at 13:25

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My wife adores the CX9.  When her Rogue was totaled, that’s what we both wanted to replace it with; however, they were still too new and expensive.  Now, you can actually pick up a used one for a great price but that wasn’t the case a couple years ago.  

Manny05x > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 16:58

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I am in the same boat, i want to replace my car with a cx9 but they are still too pricey for me.

Under_Score > Arrivederci 07/31/2019 at 17:20

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I think other crossovers are just better honestly. When the 2020 Highlander comes out,  it’s gonna be a sales monster.