[politics]

"Spanfeller is a twat" (theaspiringengineer) 04/10/2019 at 09:50 • Filed to: None

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I was listening to The Daily today and I noticed something interesting...

The amount of people crossing the border into the United States is at a peak, the highest amount since 2014. Could there be a relationship between the amount of people crossing and how strict immigration laws are? Like how gun sales went down after Trump entered office because many people were convinced it was the end of the gun control movement ?

I think the data is hard to judge, but if you attribute the 04 peak to the new policies implemented after 9/11, and the 2019 peak to the Trump administration’s border enforcement.... well.

This also including the reforms Clinton signed in 1996  which I think were rather conservative? Or maybe it’s more about economics... 

facw > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 09:56

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I think it’s mostly economics. There probably is a post-9/ 11 dip due to increased security , but I think you are seeing the effect of economic do wnturns (dot-com bust, post-9/11 malaise, Great Recession). It’s not surprising that decreased opportunity would discourage people from coming. What’s interesting is that it is staying low both in the Obama and Trump parts of the recovery. I don’t know if that is just better controls that had been underway since Bush the Younger actually taking effect, or if there is something else in play. Obviously Trump’s animosity should make people feel less good about the decision, but that doesn’t explain Obama’s last couple years.

Milky > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 09:58

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I heard a report that said exactly that. They interviewed people in Mexico that said there are rumors that the border i s closing in May.  So they decided to cross early.  

Spanfeller is a twat > facw 04/10/2019 at 10:04

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Well, the easier it is to immigrate legally, the less likely people will do so illegally; by mere advocacy of reforming the system, Obama probably had a laissez faire approach to immigration.

Other than the 1990 immigration reform, Obama and Bush have had the highest share of legal immigrants of any modern  president.

RacingShark > facw 04/10/2019 at 10:07

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W ouldn’t the economic downturns of central america have a bigger impact?  

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 10:12

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Also, shit is really bad in some parts of Mexico and South America and only seems to be getting worse. That, in combination with perceived scarcity (of opportunity to cross, or to get asylum), seem to be the main factors. 

facw > RacingShark 04/10/2019 at 10:15

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Presumably both would have an effect. I would imagine the disparity between the two would be heavily related. I’m just honestly not very well informed about the economic health of C entral America.

CobraJoe > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 10:27

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The amount of people crossing the border into the United States is at a peak, the highest amount since 2014.

Looking at that graph, the 2018 “peak” looks like normal year to year variation to me, at a fairly steady state for the past 10 years.

In other words, I’m not sure there is is enough of a peak to try and assign a single reason to. It’s a small enough of a change that it could be anything from a manufacturing plant closing to unseasonably nice weather inspiring people to take the chance.

I’m sure I’m trivializing the stats and the motivations of the people who are willing to try and cross into a new country illegally, but the graph gives a smaller perspective to the “peak”.

Spanfeller is a twat > CobraJoe 04/10/2019 at 10:42

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The statistics end in 2018, but the peak I’m talking about is from monthly data from this year. 

marshknute > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 11:34

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It’s not just the increase of people crossing the border that’s the problem. It’s new demographics abusing an outdated and under equipped legislative system.

In the past, border crossers were predominantly men in small groups seeking economic gain. Very easy for a Border Patrol team to apprehend and deport.

Now, we’re seeing large caravans of people who traveled much greater distances and are in poorer health. Once apprehended, these huge caravans demand extensive facilities for temporary housing, food, and medical care. Not to mention the huge increase of women and children which require separate facilities, more female officers, etc.

On top of that, now everyone is applying for asylum , even though the majority don’t meet the qualifications. This puts them in limbo while the court system processes their application. Except we have legislation limiting the amount of time Border Control is allowed to detain an individual, and we have like 7  judges total to process 43 gagillion asylum applications. So inevitably, none of them get processed in time and we have to release them on American soil.

So not only are our facilities at maximum capacity and releasing people anyway, now border agents are told not to apprehend anyone else crossing the border since there’s nowhere to put them. Additionally, they’re releasing first-time border crossers to try and make room.

DipodomysDeserti > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 11:37

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Obama definitely didn’t have a laissez-faire attitude towards immigration. During the first part of his administration, DHS deported more immigrants than ever before . There were protests all over the Southwest, which then brought a policy shift which eventually brought about DACA.

In 2014 his administration said unaccompanied minors from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador could claim asylum, which began to usher in the issues we’re seeing today with families claiming asylum. There was no cohesiveness to the Obama administration’s immigration policy, but it wasn’t laissez-faire.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/08/trump-deportations-behind-obama-levels-241420

https://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/18/us/politics/deportation-policy-change-came-after-protests.html

DipodomysDeserti > Milky 04/10/2019 at 11:41

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Which doesn’t make any sense, because the border is already closed to people who are crossing illegally. It’s not like in May they’re going to make it extra illegal.

DipodomysDeserti > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com 04/10/2019 at 11:47

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And it’s only going to get worse as the earth continues to warm, especially for nations on the equator.

Spanfeller is a twat > DipodomysDeserti 04/10/2019 at 11:51

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That is true, I was referring more to legal immigrants

Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 11:57

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So that’s why your post is such a confusing read. You are referring to mon thly figures, but post yearly??!

CobraJoe > Spanfeller is a twat 04/10/2019 at 12:11

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I guess I missed that distinction, but now there is a lot of missing information that could affect the reading of the 2019 rise. It’s hard to guess if this is out of the ordinary without matching monthly stats from other years.