What are the odds?

"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction)
11/18/2019 at 15:58 • Filed to: None

I just opened a snack-sized bag of Skittles and there were zero red skittles in the bag.

ZERO

2 greens
3 orange
3 purple
7 yellow (getting 7 of one may actually be more rare than getting a zero)

Seriously, what are the odds that one of these 5 colors would be missing from the bag? I would assume the great minds at Mars try very hard to prevent this from happening.

Apparently, not hard enough!

—————

Anyone else have this following problem/affliction? Upon opening a bag like I have, I pretty much have to eat them (one at a time) the 4 yellows first, then one of each of yellow, orange & purple so I’m left with 2 of each, then one of each until I’ve got one of each, and then one at a time with the rarest (green) being left for last.

DISCUSSION (75)

ttyymmnn > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:10

https://www.statcrunch.com/5.0/viewreport.php?reportid=41110

Looks like the chances are small, but still greater than zero.

Snuze: Needs another Swede > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:10

I started thinking about production statistics and almost had an aneurysm.

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-probability-that-a-fun-size-pack-of-Skittles-candy-is-missing-one-of-the-five-colors

jimz > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:13

that’s like when I open one of those little 2-packs of Starburst and find they’re both yellow. >:(

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Snuze: Needs another Swede
11/18/2019 at 16:14

Of course someone’s already worked this out.

Textured Soy Protein > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:14

I don’t share your problem. My problem is stuffing handfuls of them into my face indiscriminately.

RallyWrench > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:15

The one time you didn’t get exactly 27 blue M&M’s... ;)

Kinja'd!!!

Snuze: Needs another Swede > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:17

Of course. I t just wasn’t me, I hate statistics, with a fiery passion.

Also, re your other thing about eating order, I usually eat them in order of my least to most favorite flavors - first green, then purple, then orange, then yellow, then red.

TheTurbochargedSquirrel > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:17

I feel like I did this research multiple times back in grade school.

Deal Killer - Powered by Focus > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:18

Wanna solve this problem? Make your own Skittles!

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn
11/18/2019 at 16:20

I only spotted a couple zeroes in his data, but a ton of 1s.

Mars really doesn’t care, it appears, but I’d guess they have done quite a bit of work optimizing the mix in the hopper before it goes to packaging, or zeroes would be a lot more common.

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:20

If you assume there is an equal chance for each color to be put in the bag then there is about a 3.5 % chance of that happening. There is a 80% (4/5) chance each skittle is not red and there are 15 skittles in the bag so there is a (4/5)¹ chance that red is not present.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Snuze: Needs another Swede
11/18/2019 at 16:21

Yeah, I almost considered switching it up, because I prefer orange and purple to green.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Deal Killer - Powered by Focus
11/18/2019 at 16:22

Holy crap. This lady is a scientist. How many hours did she commit to this?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > jimz
11/18/2019 at 16:23

NOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooo........................

Tripper > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:26

Skittles can get fucked for ditching lime for the worst flavor of any candy ever.

Tripper > jimz
11/18/2019 at 16:27

*The machine packaging those double yellow starburst packs*

Kinja'd!!!

dumpsterfire! > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:27

I read on the internet (this thread) that Kyle Busch likes red ones and there is a nationwide shortage in preparation for the NASCAR championship.

Pickup_man > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:28

For Halloween my wife bought a variety bag of something or other that was supposed to have Sweetarts in it. The only candy she likes is Sweetarts so she was going to pull those out, and give the rest to the trick-or-treaters. There was not. a. single. pack. of Sweetarts in that entire bag. She was devastated , I thought it was hilarious .

When I eat Sk ittles I stack them into columns of two, by color, combine the leftover singles and eat them together. Then pair up every possible combo (only two flavors), make at least two five flavor combos, then either eat the rest of the columns in random pairs, or mix them all together and eat random pairs or triples .

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
11/18/2019 at 16:28

Nice quick calculation. But it does seem like having a NULL in one of every 28 bags would be too high a probability for Mars to accept. Maybe not? In some of the data that was shared, there were two zeroes in a sample of 50, so that seems right on with what you figured.

Tripper > Textured Soy Protein
11/18/2019 at 16:28

I like to hold them under my tongue for a little to mainline that SUGA.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tripper
11/18/2019 at 16:29

Lime is so much better than green apple. When did they change it?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > dumpsterfire!
11/18/2019 at 16:30

I just read that, too!

smobgirl > Snuze: Needs another Swede
11/18/2019 at 16:31

Right plan, wrong order. Yellow orange green red purple.

smobgirl > Textured Soy Protein
11/18/2019 at 16:32

You can’t mix flavors!!!

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:32

I honestly didnt know that the different colors had different flavors. I just considered them to be all the same thing but with different colors. I think I am just so unpicky that its all “skittles” flavor regardless of which one. I dont think ive ever eaten individual skittles though either, they are eaten by the handful.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Pickup_man
11/18/2019 at 16:32

Ha! False advertising!!

I definitely do the column thing, but your flavor combos intrigue me.

Future next gen S2000 owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:35

They should all be red, all the time.

Future next gen S2000 owner > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:35

They hate people.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%)
11/18/2019 at 16:37

Okay, well, next time eat all 5 individually, just so you know.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Future next gen S2000 owner
11/18/2019 at 16:38

I guess they need to talk to the Swedish Fish people.

For Sweden > jimz
11/18/2019 at 16:39

but you won’t get scurvy

wafflesnfalafel > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:41

C learly the color mixing has been outsourced to some incompetent, bottom dollar operation...

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:42

Oh shit, I used to know this stuff...

Is it, 1-(1-nPr)? Or, the probability that there are zero is one minus the probability that there is at least one? No, no....

Textured Soy Protein > smobgirl
11/18/2019 at 16:43

The best Skittles flavor is a giant mound of partially chewed wild berry + tropical mash-ups that have all melded together into one .

Kinja'd!!!

TheRealBicycleBuck > smobgirl
11/18/2019 at 16:45

Come on, you have to admit you like the occasional lemon/lime combo!

smobgirl > TheRealBicycleBuck
11/18/2019 at 16:46

I did...when lime was an option. Get with the times.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
11/18/2019 at 16:47

Please spend all night on this, and get back to me in the morning.

TheRevanchist > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:48

Green is the worst.

TheRealBicycleBuck > smobgirl
11/18/2019 at 16:50

Wait... what?!? Just goes to show I quit eating Skittles when their impact on my teeth was something to worry about. My mom threatened me with my life if I broke my braces again (after the first time) .

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > TheRevanchist
11/18/2019 at 16:51

I can’t disagree with this.

gin-san - shitpost specialist > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:52

Even of the ones you got, you disproportionately got more yellow ones.

I opened two large bags of Sta rbursts and I had more yellows than the number of red/pink combined.

It’s a fucking piss off since I love the red cherry flavour whether it’s skittles or starbursts.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > TheRevanchist
11/18/2019 at 16:53

Modern green is the worst. Lime was delicious.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%)
11/18/2019 at 16:55

They swapped lime for inferior green apple due to people like you. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Also, the middles are all the same, the outer shell is where the flavor comes from.

Pickup_man > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:55

Just so you know, I bought a bag of Skittles because of this. They were delicious.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > gin-san - shitpost specialist
11/18/2019 at 16:55

This is a good point.

7 of one color may be more unusual than zero of another.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 16:57

They were replaced 6 years ago. I don’t know why. They claimed it was due to some testing, but I think it’s all bollocks.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > ttyymmnn
11/18/2019 at 16:58

gin-san made an interesting point that getting 7 of one color may be more unusual than getting zero of another color. In the data you linked to, there are a couple zeros, but only one 7 in the sample.

smobgirl > Pickup_man
11/18/2019 at 17:00

I also want skittles now.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
11/18/2019 at 17:00

Okay, one more question: is getting 7 of one color even less likely than getting zero of one color?

TheRevanchist > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 17:01

For the last 5 years, or whenever they did the change, I just throw away the green apple crap.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Pickup_man
11/18/2019 at 17:01

Haha - you’re welcome, I guess?

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > smobgirl
11/18/2019 at 17:02

I’d share if you were close!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 17:04

Kids these days...

smobgirl > TheRealBicycleBuck
11/18/2019 at 17:05

To be fair, I can’t remember where you live (if you’ve ever even mentioned it). But they replaced lim e with green apple in the US a few years ago. Terrible decision. (And fuck braces, I should probably get them again as an adult but I’m not famous so it’s not worth it.)

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > TheRevanchist
11/18/2019 at 17:06

I only buy them when they have lime in them, so I have a large stash of “Long Lost Lime” bags in my closet that I have been consuming extremely slowly since they were available ...

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 17:12

I also ate a pack of zombie skittles and didnt find any to be particularly offensive. So maybe my tastebuds just dont work properly. But something about the sugar and sourness all combining makes the flavors just blend into a mashup.

Pickup_man > smobgirl
11/18/2019 at 17:14

Buy some, you will not regret it.

TheRealBicycleBuck > smobgirl
11/18/2019 at 17:16

Baton Rouge on weekends, Houston during the week. I guess I never got the memo about the change in Skittles, but they haven’t been one of my candy choices in many, many years.

Braces were a necessity for me. I had a tooth that wasn’t cooperating with the program and it caused all kinds of mayhem . By the time the tooth was removed, I needed the braces to pull the other teeth into alignment and correct the TMJ damage that had already occurred.

smobgirl > Pickup_man
11/18/2019 at 17:20

I’m at the airport now so my wallet might. I’m going to have to grab some tomorrow though.

Deal Killer - Powered by Focus > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 17:22

Dude, this a rabbit hole that is wonderful to go down. Ruffles, Pringles, Pop Rocks, etc . It’s amazing.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Deal Killer - Powered by Focus
11/18/2019 at 17:39

Might have to watch some of these with my wife - thanks!

Discerning > TheRevanchist
11/18/2019 at 18:06

What’s sad is green used to be good. Now it’s complete garbage.

Lime was my second favorite right after lemon.

Wacko > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 18:17

Kinja'd!!!

facw > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 18:23

I’d assume there’s not actually a 80% chance for each one to be not-red. Probably they are being fed in such a way that a not-red increases the chance next one is red. Like if you have 5 pipelines feeding in, all the colors not selected in one “round” should have an advantage in the next. I’d guess something wasn’t quite working right in the factory.

Tripper > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 20:29

5ish years ago I think. I remember being in our apartment when my wife and I were ready to murder the person behind that decision.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > facw
11/18/2019 at 20:50

I was guessing they just put them together in a huge hopper.

facw > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/18/2019 at 20:58

They probably do, but the hopper’s contents is probably not truly random. It likely depends on how it is filled.

pip bip - choose Corrour > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/19/2019 at 03:22

email them and complain

you might get some freebies out of it by bringing it to their attention

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com
11/19/2019 at 08:38

Getting 7 of one color is a little more tricky to calculate , I had to go look it up since it’s been a while since I’ve done much stats. You’d use a probability mass function to calculate it.

Kinja'd!!!

In this case x is 7, n is 15, and p is 0.2. Input these into the equation and you get about a 1.4% chance of getting 7 of one color.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
11/19/2019 at 09:22

Nice! Thanks. That it’s roughly half as likely as a zero bears out in the study that ttmmyynn shared.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > pip bip - choose Corrour
11/19/2019 at 09:24

I’ve already spent way too much of my life on this - ha!

And I’m sure they already know (and don’t care).

Think of all the free advertising I’ve given them here!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > facw
11/19/2019 at 09:26

Right. I assume they’ve done some work to try to blend the mix as evenly as possible, but there’s only so much you can do in a scenario like this. It would add a ton of cost and complexity to set up a production line that would guarantee you 3 of each in every little bag.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Tripper
11/19/2019 at 09:27

Ha!

facw > MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s
11/19/2019 at 09:35

I’m also super rusty here, but wouldn’t it be 5 times that? I think that provides the probability of getting a specific color, but you don’t care which color as long as you end up with 7 of them?

MasterMario - Keeper of the V8s > facw
11/19/2019 at 09:54

I think you’re right, since this equation would be the probability for getting 7 yellows. But since we don’t care which color there are 7 of it should be 5x that.