Tesla Truck. Yeah, but why?

"HammerheadFistpunch" (hammerheadfistpunch)
06/28/2018 at 15:28 • Filed to: Tesla, Tesla Truck

So Tesla is making a pickup truck, or so they say and while Im a curious to see what they come up with one thing I can’t say I understand is the why.

I don’t have any doubts that whatever they come up with will be a well engineered product and I think there has to be some reason that they think they should perseu this project but can someone tell me what it is?

Whos it for?

This is the one I’m having a hard time with. The Model S I get. The Model 3 I get. The Roadster I get. The Model X I...kinda get.

The way I see it there are 2 types of truck buyers

1. People that want/need utility - They tow, they haul. They do trucky things for work or for play. They may also want or need off road capability.

2. People that want a truck - look, some people just want to buy a truck for no other reason than to own a truck. There is something about a truck that calls to some people. It could be the blue jeans part of them, or their anachronistic nature or some other phycological reason...Maybe they just like modded trucks, for example.

So lets look at #1 first

What kind of utility will a Tesla truck offer?

So, numbers time, Tesla people love the numbers.

I’ll save you the math* (its at the bottom) but the moral of the story is this:

168-450 miles depending on towing 5000 lbs or empty with a 202 Kwh pack

1500 lbs payload 6500 lbs towing as a likely best case scenario

2.66 hours to fast charge

$38380 in batteries alone

2161 lbs weight in batteries alone

Which equates to:

Midsized payloads and towing

terrible utility range

long recharge times

Huge weight and cost

To say nothing of using it as an Off Road vehicle which...come on...just because it has 4wd doesn’t mean it will be used off road. The low .cd required for these numbers as well as tire selection would prohibit it in that area.

So on to point the 2nd, people who want a truck.

This is a lot more nebulous of a concept but I think we can all agree that the people who want a truck don’t necessarily want a car shaped like a truck. The Ridgeline and its meager sales will attest to that, regardless of its trucky cred. No. People who want a truck want a look, a feel, a lifestyle.

I think we can also agree that the way Tesla will be required to make a truck will result a vehicle that doesn’t resemble this ideal, either physically or emotionally.

Which leads me to this diagram

Im not saying there aren’t people out there who wish their model X had a bed. I AM saying I think that overlap is small.

This is the part I need help with most. Can you help me understand the customer for a $85,000+ full size truck with modest payload, towing, off-road ability and virtually no “truck cred”?

Now I get that most trucks these days are daily drivers and don’t fill their beds with compost. Thats truck buyer number 1. Truck buyer number 2 wants a “truck” and I don’t think this Tesla is going to cut if for that buyer.

Now assuming Tesla can overcome cost, and engineering hurdles and build an amazing truck that changes the game...Should they build it? More accurately...

Can they build it?

They can’t build the model 3 fast enough, they’ve also committed to a roadster they haven’t even started building oh and also a Class 8 truck for commercial clients that may or may not exist.

Why is this truck even on the radar right now? Yes, I get it that truck sales are hot sauce right now, but as I said in another post...just because you are in to a market, doesn’t mean the market is into you.

How many years have Toyota and Nissan been after a slice of the full size truck market? Its not an easy game to win, let alone play in.

This is NOT chasing a market no one is in like the Model S was [luxury viable electric], or to a degree the Model X [practical utility electric]. This is a well established market that knows what it wants. Yes an electric truck is something that no one is !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! selling to consumers but it remains to be seen an electric pickup is even something consumers didn’t know they wanted. I would argue no.

Economy and running costs DO mean a lot to fleets and so there is a potential there, but purchase costs, established reputations, built out management and maintenance programs and other ancillary services I would argue mean more. This is what worries me about the Class 8 truck project as well. It remains to be seen if commercial buyers are even remotely interested in being early adopters.

So Im asking you again...who is this truck for?

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

*MATHS

Musk wants a range of 400-500 miles for the truck.

The current lardass of the range (Model X P100d) does 380 watts/mi not towing.

The Model X P100D towing 5000 lbs at 60 mph on flat terrain consumes ~600 watt/mi, going up a hill with the same load consumes about 1kw/mi

The model X has a .cd of .24

the slipperiest pickup has a .cd ~.36 (the same claim as the Tesla Semi in its most aero form)

If Tesla was committed I think they could get their .cd down to .32 or about a 1/3rd higher than the X.

For simplicity sake lets just say that if a model X consumes 380 watts/mi the Model Truck would do about 450 for the same miles unladen, about 700 laden easy towing, and 1.2 kw laden hard towing.

the required range then would need to be

Unladen 450 miles = 202 KW.

Which would give you a towing range of between 289 miles EASY slow towing (5000 lbs) and 168 miles harder towing.

WEIGHT AND COST

Factoring in those numbers its important to look at a few more

The current weight of batteries is 10.7 lbs/kwh

The current cost of batteries is $190/kwh

The current fast charge rate for the 100 kw battery pack is 1.33 hrs.

Which would mean a 202 kw battery pack would:

Weigh 2161 lbs

Cost $38,380

Take 2.66 hours to fully recharge at the fastest rate.

Now lets see how that affects the utility

The Model X p100D weighs 5500 lbs, which frankly is amazing given that a 1/5th of that is battery. Increase the size of the vehicle, double the battery size and we are talking about an EASY 6500 lb curb.

divide it by 2 (we are assuming an even weight over each axle as would be likely with such a huge battery and you are looking at 3250 per axle, or 1625 per tire. Thats before adding people, cargo, trailers, etc.

As a reference, the highest rear axle rating on the F150 (the half ton payload champ) is 4050 lbs. Thats with the solid axle the Model Truck wont have.

Remember that the truck needs to stay under 8501 lbs GVWR to be considered a light duty truck. That gives it 2000 lbs to play with but the limiting factors are going to be axle limits. 2000 lbs split up over people and cargo would mean a 30/70 front to rear split. So the rear axle would need to be able to be rated at 4650 lbs rear and 3850 up front. Thats a strong axle. Never mind that the heaviest rated tire in that category Tesla would pursue would be limited to 4600 lbs at full pressure.

No, realistically it would be in line with smaller trucks, say around 1500 lbs payload at 6500 lbs towing. Right about where the a Midsized truck would be. Likely less.

DISCUSSION (22)

benjrblant > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:30

1) Because Elon can

2) B ecause media coverage

3) Because its silly

4) Because people would throw insane amounts of cash down to buy one regardless of everything you just said.

vicali > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:38

I m a g i n e t h e s n o r k l e o n t h a t t h i n g . .

HammerheadFistpunch > benjrblant
06/28/2018 at 15:43

1. Can he?

2. There has to be cheaper ways

3. Not a... Great reason

4. We'll see

nermal > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:45

I think the Tesla truck will be closer to a Ridgeline than an F150. Good for a “lifestyle” truck, so you can use it to haul mountain bikes, or kayaks, or Ikea furniture.

1,500 lbs of payload is plenty, there are some 1/2 ton trucks with less than that which don’t have issues selling. That means they need to get the weight under 7k lbs, which shouldn’t be an issue.

Cost will be the biggest issue. If they make what amounts to a “Ridgeline EV” and can sell it for $50k - $60k, they’ll have a hit . Trying to sell the same for $120k will not see mass appeal .

jimz > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:45

to me, pickups are ripe for electrification. not least of which is that the high-riding body-on-frame design gives plenty of room under the thing to stuff battery into.

MultiplaOrgasms > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:47

I say Tesla would be better off making an electric delivery van for urban use. Which is a market segment that ha s already been populated by quite a few manufacturers. I don’t think they can use their numbers game to their advantage in that segment. You don’t need 350 miles of range in an urban delivery scenario, and these vehicles get recharged overnight anyway. Acceleration isn’t of importance here either .

Since Tesla is more on the fashionable side of manufacturers, it’d be best for them to stick to desirable passenger vehicles. They’re not Mercedes. They couldn’t get away with making honest work vehicles under the same brand as the really high-end stuff . Maybe build a full size M inivan (that doesn’t look like an inflated Pufferfish ). Or more realistically a Model 3 based Crossover.

benjrblant > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:47

1) Maybe, maybe not. At least he can tweet images of it.

2) As far as we can tell, he might only be out the cost of an intern’s drawing and a tweet.

3) WELL FINE

4) I mean, people buy the model X and that’s about as useful as... well, something not very useful I suppose.

fintail > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:51

The cult has money, and a lot of semi-urban techie types love to cosplay the rough and tumble outdoorsman, it’s a huge image thing around Seattle anyway.

Tekamul > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 15:53

Nicw write up, and bravo for showing your work.

I think trying to provide full size utility is a fool's errand for Tesla. They'd be better off going to a light duty, high luxury solution. Make it low and slick, more Model S-amino.

BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 16:05

I’ll echo what some have already said. Heck, if I could afford it, I’d be interested in a Tesla truck.

Many times in life, one has to carry stuff that’s big/awkward/dirty but not necessarily heavy. Even sports equipment, often a truck may make more sense. Bikes, kayaks, hiking gear, whatever. Couple that with the greater ride height and I’d love to have a truck as my vehicle.

But I drive 25k+ miles a year and commute at least 50 miles a day. I can’t get behind 17-21mpg.

If I was a buyer in the luxury-ish market, and wanted a nicer, more prestigious Ridgeline, the Tesla would be something to look at.

Gerry197 > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 16:24

Anachronistic? Maybe you mean in the traditional work “function” of a truck? But I wouldn’t say that actually describes a modern truck in equipment and capabilities.

Below describes the number one selling pickup in the number one selling configuration for the last few years, below specifically for 2018.

- All aluminum alloy body

- 2.7L Twin Turbo Direct & Port Injected V6 putting out 325 hp / 400 lbs-ft torque. (2018 Winner of Wards 10 Best Engines).

- 10-speed automatic

- 0-60 5.7 seconds w/ up to a 26 mpg highway rating.

It should be noted the F150 is the number one selling vehicle for people with annual incomes of $200,000 and also again at $500,000. Though I’m not sure if an electric truck, even fullsize would appeal to this same group.

BvdV - The Dutch Engineer > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 16:53

Great piece of writing!

I don’t see the use/demand for it, either . Electric pickups would be great for local services like local government, gardeners etc, but they probably wouldn’t be willing to pay for a premium vehicle. In the end it will probably mostly be Tesla fans buying them...

One small note: the unit of energy consumption, and the size of the battery should be in (k)Wh, not plain (k)W, as the former is energy, and the latter is power. (Sorry for nitpicking, but EVs/batteries are my field, and while I fully agree with your calculations, the units bothered me)

My bird IS the word > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 16:59

Its more important for musk to seem like tesla is a big boy company than to actually make money.

HammerheadFistpunch > BvdV - The Dutch Engineer
06/28/2018 at 17:10

Yeahi got kinda lazy with that. Thanks though

SilentButNotReallyDeadly...killed by G/O Media > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 20:53

I’m curious as to whether the Tesla Pickup is a ‘truck’ for America or a ‘truck’ for the rest of the world. Because these aren’t the same things.

In my mind, the 4 cylinder hybrid powertrain from a Camry in a dual cab Hilux would make a very powerful argument against the concept of a full electric ute.

shop-teacher > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 21:17

Wow, thanks for doing all that maths for us!

I agree there won't be a big market for this, but I'm glad someone is getting the ball rolling on an electric pickup. I do think there is a market for an around town electric work truck in the $40k range. This certainly isn't that, but it's the first step towards that.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 21:18

I put this in the same category as the blackwood. On paper, (and showrooms) there is a 90k pickup market, but the high end f150s also blend right in on a jobsight.

This is like Armani overalls.

As you said with the roadster, semi, and potential redesign of the S, I can’t see where, or how(as they cut engineering) they plan on building this. I think the main reason is to have an excuse for new press releases. On top of all this they still don’t have full self driving they promised and sold to model S buyers, 2 years ago.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 22:24

I think your battery costs are way too high. The cell (not pack) costs for the Bolt were somewhere around $120/kWh, and that includes LG Chem’s profit on the cells. I suspect Tesla cells would be closer to $100 kWh, especially if they reduce the Cobalt content like they say they are trying to do.

I wouldn't be surprised if the truck started around the $45k mark for a 75-80 kWh version, but the one they make money on would have a larger pack with all the bells and whistles (e.g. self driving, monthly or yearly fees for fancy in car internet, etc).

HammerheadFistpunch > BaconSandwich is tasty.
06/28/2018 at 23:12

Tesla is going for 157 per kwh ( for the pack) by 2020. Latest confirmed say it's 190 per kwh per pack.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 23:36

Interesting. I thought it would have been lower than that by now.

BaconSandwich is tasty. > HammerheadFistpunch
06/28/2018 at 23:40

... although knowing Musk time, by the time the truck is out, it'll be$100/kWh :P

HammerheadFistpunch > BaconSandwich is tasty.
06/29/2018 at 00:06

Thats the goal. They say at 100/kwh they become competitive against gas. that being said, I’ve heard 125 is still a ways off.