When people buy commuter cars, how many have actually calculated their "break-even" date?

"Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo" (thetomselleck)
06/10/2018 at 22:15 • Filed to: Why does this jackass like applied mathematics so much?!

I was having this conversation with my coworker last week. She does very well and owns lots of cars, but the recent traffic nightmare that has become her commute ultimately pushed her towards purchasing a barely-used 2017 Focus, which was *heeeeeavily* discounted, as she knew the general manager of the dealer personally. The short version is: she used to commute with either a 2002 Denali or a 2006(?) STS-V (and oh God it’s immaculate, I want it).

We usually talk cars, comparing stuff like her $500 burnt out tail light on the STS-V vs my $1000-something timing belt. But for the context of the conversation, my side was that my vehicle was paid for, up-to-date on maintenance, and I had a short commute. Therefore it would take years for the savings on, say, a used CT200h, to pay for itself when compared to just driving the IS300. Plus, I like it too much to justify selling it. Her side was she wanted to keep the wear and tear off of her favorite cars and gas was getting too expensive, so she went and made a deal.

But mathematically speaking for her side, let’s assume the following factors:

-2017 Focus mpg: 33mpgs mixed (conservative)
-2006 STS-V: 15mpgs mixed (on a good day, observed by the owner)
-an average price of $3.50 per gallon gas over the next X years (EXTREMELY conservative for this area, but I had to pick some arbitrary number).
- a commute of 10,560 miles per year for work

What I came up with was: her Focus will have paid for itself in 5.21 years, when compared to commuting with the STS-V. And here are some other factors that can’t properly be measured:

- I’m pretty sure the STS-V takes premium, so the car probably pays for itself even sooner.
- I have zero faith that the average price of gas over the next X years would be only $3.50 here in the Seattle area. Thus the car may again likely pay for itself sooner.
- Maintenance costs. Every story she’s had about the STS-V indicates that nothing is cheap. I can’t imagine an old Yukon Denali being much better as time marches on.
- She wants to keep miles off the Denali and STS-V because she loves them and wants to keep them as long as possible. The Focus is the sacrificial miles-eater. This love — as we all know — cannot be measured by dollars.

I did the exercise myself in the past — in extreme jest:

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So, in my “who give a shit what you think anyway” opinion, this move is fucking brilliant for her.

She is, however, but an anecdote. When I see a new Corolla or Versa on the road, or get picked up by an Uber Prius, I always wonder to myself: what car (if any) did they have before? Was this worth it? To they drive a Lotus on the weekends?

What do you think? How many consumer are out there actually crunching numbers when they go from a 1996 Camry SE V6 Coupe that they bought for 2k and needs nothing, to a base CVT Corolla?

DISCUSSION (60)

MM54 > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:21

My commute is right around 3 miles one way. There is one stop light, and one stop sign. The roads are all 25 or 35MPH. Based on this, I should get an Isetta to commute.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > MM54
06/10/2018 at 22:22

Counterpoint: based on that short of a commute, you should buy a 2014 Audi S8

Alfalfa > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:23

Based on the amount of people who trade in their $5k SUVs for $15k-$20k compacts every time fuel goes up, I’m guessing not many.

His Stigness > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:28

I’ve gotten so many comments from people, and a few here on Oppo, about my choice to buy a new e-Golf for my mom when we both have perfectly fine cars, and hers was (is) a TDI. I personally didn’t do the math of the time it would take payoff the e-Golf as opposed to driving my Mercedes, but considering I don’t actually pay anything to charge me e-Golfs, I’m sure it’s pretty damn quick. However, I did do the math of how much I was spending on fuel for both cars each month (I fill up both cars), it was well worth it to get a brand new car. I was spending almost $200 a month just for my Mercedes, so I chose to spend a little more each month, and in exchange, I get a brand new car, my first, and a car I absolutely love.

New car purchases don’t always make sense. It usually comes down to what a person wants, rather than needs.

But people do still make really stupid mistakes, like my sister, who bought a used RENTAL Pacifica, from CARMAX, and traded in her Hyundai SUV which wasn’t even five years old and had zero problems. Oh wait, she said it needed tires... And in terms of gas, she gets worse mileage in her Pacifica. But her husband supposedly did the research. But they lost several thousand on their Hyundai when they sold it to Carmax, and overpaid for a god damn rental car.

His Stigness > MM54
06/10/2018 at 22:29

No, just get an e-Golf. It will just take you ten years to pay it off vs keeping a car you own.

HammerheadFistpunch > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:30

I’ve played these numbers out sooooo many times for my wife to see if I can coax her into being a 3 car family...no dice. With my make believe low ball budget I would plan to break even in 3

wafflesnfalafel > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:33

I.. I think there are maybe 12 people in the entire US that might make this calculation in reality. Not to say it isn’t valuable, (and actually really pretty interesting,) but I think vehicles are sold on necessity and emotion, not proactive calculation. The country would be full of Honda Fits and Corollas. And... Wildcard! What value do you put on the minute by minute joy of driving something other than a Honda Fit or Toyota Corolla? $5 and hour? $50 an hour?

Wuelling > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:33

Got a new Versa in ‘13 was well worth the gas savings. I put on about 20k miles a year. Avg about 40 mpg. I hate the car but plan on keeping it another 100k miles if it last. Been pricing old Land Cruisers lately for family trips and light off roading

Nothing > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:34

Based on my commute, I shouldn’t have any car, let alone 2...3 if I count the wife’s, who also doesn’t have a commute.

When I did have a longer commute, and a different vehicle, I crunched the numbers and the difference wasn’t worth it.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > His Stigness
06/10/2018 at 22:36

A very good point. Cars aren’t about money. But an e-Golf is a very nice vehicle — well above the plain of existence inhabited by base 2017 Corollas and Versas. I would say I would never consider you in this thought exercise.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > HammerheadFistpunch
06/10/2018 at 22:39

We’re only a 3* car family because, as homeowners, a plucky little pickup can do a lot of things that two hatchbacks simply cannot.

His Stigness > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:43

I take that as a compliment. I like to think I defy all logical conventions.

And I just did some rough maths: I’d never save money driving my e-Golf over my Mercedes, even when you factor in tires, maintenance, and gas. But as I said, most people buy cars because they want them, and my mom and I really wanted new cars. But having four cars has been a pain in the ass when you do the detailing, maintenance, and you don’t have a four-car garage.

MM54 > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:44

But for the cost of that I could get several other cars which I’d enjoy more!

WilliamsSW > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:45

I did this in 2006, but there was no math involved - it was entirely to keep miles down on my 3 series, and get a car that could actually make my 65 mile daily round trip in Chicago in all weather (the bmw truly could not, as I had found out the previous winter).

Bought a new Pathfinder that got worse mileage than the BMW, and was pretty happy with it.

Now 12 years later I still only have 110k on the BMW, and 170k on the Nissan. Yes, I still have both...

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > wafflesnfalafel
06/10/2018 at 22:46

true. but they’re not choosing between a corolla and 86, its between a corolla and a highlander which isn’t exactly driving nirvana.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > wafflesnfalafel
06/10/2018 at 22:49

It’s the same reason why I drive my car instead of my wife’s. The IS is superior in every way imaginable for me except fuel economy. And I’ve sent spent my entire life in econoboxes, so at this point I don’t give a damn.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > His Stigness
06/10/2018 at 22:51

I’ve felt that three is the magic number. Person #1's, person #2's, and a spare or utility vehicle. Back when I had six cars, keeping them running, let alone decent and up to date, what just a huge burden. There was very little actually *enjoying* the driving part.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:52

The thing you have missed that needs to be added is the additional costs involved in owning the car. Registration, insurance, smog checks, maintenance (which will get pricey the moment that car goes out of warranty if it has the unreliable DCT), etc. Although I tried to explain that it is a cheap hobby to have a car I don’t drive much, it was a lot more than having a single primary car...

This might not all be as expensive where you live, but in the Sound Transit 3 zone, it could be many hundreds more a year. I’m barely outside that region by something like 500’ or so, which reduces my total cost per car by a substantial amount.

winterlegacy, here 'till the end > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 22:56

It appears my next car purchase will be driven by value per mile. This probably means buying something like a gently used compact car.

Mostly because compacts and subcompacts are the only things that show up when I filter my searches for manual transmissions.

Milky > Wuelling
06/10/2018 at 23:02

I hate the car but plan on keeping it another 100k miles

Well that sounds not fun.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:03

Oh yes, my car before the Lincoln was so cheap to own, maintain, and insure that I figure I came out well ahead on the car over just about any form of transportation. Even bus passes would have probably been a loss. I also sold it for more than I paid for it. It wasn’t a cool car, but I miss it because it was so economical to drive and cheap to own/maintain.

BigBlock440 > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:05

I know I didn’t, but seeing as my most expensive car was $8k, which is over double my next expensive car, it brings the payback period down significantly.

slipperysallylikespenguins > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:06

I actually did this calculation when I bought my first motorcycle in 2007. Gas was up to the $4 range in 07/08. It paid for itself in 10k miles using conservative numbers compared to driving my Camaro at the time. 65 mpg beats 16 pretty quick!

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
06/10/2018 at 23:09

Yes, I was waiting for someone to make this point. Given that she lives north of Everett, she probably doesn’t even pay as much as me to register her car. Nor could insurance be much based on the car and her driving record.

For me though? During the recession, I could register my Tercel for $35 in 2012. Now, it costs over $110.00 just to register my wife’s car, as Everett is heavily contributing to new taxes for public transportation and the alleged light rail that will come through Pacific Avenue — someday. And since the Lexus is, uh, a Lexus, it costs even more.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:10

I have an uncle who was driving 30miles each way to work in a F250. back when gas was over $5 my dad and I were talking about an ad from a local honda dealership. We started running numbers you could lease a 4cy accord with all the bells and whistles and save money vs driving.

Another thing people need to consider is the breaking point. At what point does this not make finacial sense to drive. I have a co-worker with an aging luxury car. “I have to keep it a few years longer, A new one is 60k. I can’t afford that!” This car has something break on it every 2-3 months, meaning my co-worker misses a good chunk of work, has to rent a car. Last year he had to dump over $5k into just to keep it on the road. and that doesn’t include all the random little”well that doesn’t work, nor that, nor that”

His Stigness > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:13

Ah but you forgot about #4: race car! Which is what #4 is now.

But I get what you mean. While I want a fifth car, a MKVII Golf R, I can just see it adding more stress. But hopefully, the joy of just taking it out for a drive would outweigh the added trouble of taking care of it.

But then, if I had a garage large enough to house my cars I wouldn’t mind so much. Right now only have enough space for four cars, and no street parking available because my neighbors are all assholes, it just adds problems.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Milky
06/10/2018 at 23:15

Sacrifices must be made.

[looks at upcoming mortgage payment]

Oh, Great Taker of Funds, may this month’s sacrifice be of sunstenance for Thy great hunger.

[remember I already have car I like]

Yaaaaay!

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > BigBlock440
06/10/2018 at 23:16

8k?! Well look at Mr. Moneybags over here with his fancy monies!

shop-teacher > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:16

This is exactly why I daily drive my truck. My commute is 8-miles round trip. Even when gas was more than $4/gallon, it was cheaper to buy some more gas than even to buy, insure, and maintain even a beater.

I agree with your assessment as well, it sounds like the Focus purchase makes sense for her.

I have another burner, try to guess it! > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:18

I need to do the math on this for a motorcycle. However it’s a little more complicated because there’s non fiscal aspects, such as much better parking on campus, potentially lane splitting (reduced commute time), and riding a motorcycle as opposed to driving an A/C car when it’s 100+ outside.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > His Stigness
06/10/2018 at 23:19

Perhaps a future remodel turning the garage into a 2-deep 2-bay?

Matsayz > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:19

I’ve been going through the comments waiting for the A->B comment. Didn’t think it would be from the OP!

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > MM54
06/10/2018 at 23:19

BUY ALL THE THINGS

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > Matsayz
06/10/2018 at 23:21

The IS is like acid: it’s changed my brain, maaaaaaaan

shop-teacher > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:22

I always feel like I want three vehicles (for myself, I’m only allowed to drive my wife’s car if it needs gas or service), but having achieved that twice, it always ends up being more of a PITA than it’s worth. I think you’re right, three vehicles total, for the two of us. That seems to be the happy place. (Scooters don’t count! I just bought a third!)

Matsayz > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
06/10/2018 at 23:22

Damnit man, what was this car?!

wafflesnfalafel > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:27

Agree - I’m at the same point. I grin every single time the boost comes up and I pull away, up hill, from whatever I’m trying to get out of the way of. Yep, it drinks a bit of premium fuel, but I’m happy for the trade off.

TheRealBicycleBuck > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:28

A coworker and I were arguing about the value of buying a hybrid versus a car with decent gas mileage. So, we built a spreadsheet where we could compare two vehicles at a time, taking into account purchase price, insurance, mpg, tax incentives, etc. We compared vehicles which were available as both a standard model and as a hybrid.

We discovered that it took about 10 years to recover the additional price premium for the hybrid version.

If I could find that spreadsheet, I’d post it here.

Matsayz > wafflesnfalafel
06/10/2018 at 23:33

I too agree. I love me some boost. The Golf R is not necessary but it brings join. I just would’ve rather gone to my monthly Time Attack today instead of house stuff... joys of being a home owner!

Longtime Lurker > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:45

Because of my short commute fuel cost difference never plays a significant factor. Before every vehicle purchase I calculate Total Cost to Own, taking into consideration purchase price, annual insurance, annual fuel cost, annual maintenance, likely repairs to occur, how long the vehicle could be expected to last, and how long I’ll want to own it for. I do this calculation for as many vehicles as I want comparing them to see which would be cheaper to own overall, then this would get weighed against the intangibles such as comfort and entertainment (driving dynamics) factors.

But then I don’t worry about the numbers and just buy what I want, because it’s my money.

example:

Old car- 2000 Dodge Caravan 414000km(at the time)

Purchased for $300. Insurance $800/yr. Fuel $900/yr. Maintenance $50/yr. Est Repairs $500/yr. Yearly Cost $2250.

New Car-2010 Ford Ranger 0km (at the time)

Purchasse for $16,500. Insurance $1300/yr. Fuel $650/yr. Maintenance $100/yr. Est Repairs $100/yr. (new vehicle has warranty, tires at 5 years) Yearly Cost $2150.

So I would have to own my Ranger for 165years to “Break Even” compared to my old caravan. Seems reasonable!

His Stigness > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:55

We rent. So I’m waiting for the market to drop out and buy a five car garage with enough land to also build a separate place as I can’t use the excuse of being in school forever

AestheticsInMotion > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/10/2018 at 23:55

The only nod I give to car buying break-even points is trying to do as much work myself as possible to save on shop fees. Probably paid for the Miata already in money saved doing my own wrenching. Gas is cheap, and even if it goes up significantly.... It’s still cheap compared to all the other expenses. Making an effort to turn off lights and take shorter showers would probably offset 100% of my gas bill, and I drive quite a bit. Now that I think about it my Outback was a perfect example. More fuel efficient, more comfortable, more storage... And it got driven maybe twice a year.

The idea behind commuter cars is strange to me. Why would I want to pay money to drive something (and store, register, insure, etc.) I don’t like, just to keep what I do like in better shape..? I’ll take the added wear and tear on the fun vehicles.

Then again I’m cross shopping s60r/v70r’s and Ducati’s so I might be somewhat unhinged.

Wuelling > Milky
06/11/2018 at 00:00

Yeah haha. When you school loans are paid off, I get a 911 so it will be worth it

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 00:04

Her low costs for that would help, but will definitely be far from zero.

Each of my cars is $60/year to register (up from the lowest I’ve paid, but not too bad), then insurance averages around $750/year/car.

Die-Trying > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 00:07

i consider the break even date, as the date that a car/truck would get paid off at about $300 per month car note. after that it doesnt owe me anything, and is on “free” time. if i have to invest money into it, then it owes some more time...... the current mile getter cost me $1000. so it took 3 months and part of another to pay itself even...... the daily that it replaced, was getting 7 mpg, at a cost of $120 per week. this new daily is getting 40 mpg, and i am spending $20 in gas per week....... i have been funding my fun projects off of the SAVINGS.....

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Matsayz
06/11/2018 at 00:44

A manual 2001 Ford ZX2. It was a freaking unicorn due to the transmission, but far from perfect overall. Bought it in 2007 with ~70k miles for $1900 expecting it to last about 6 months. Sold it in 2015 with ~130k miles for $3000. Average insurance cost was $300/year over that period and it cost somewhere around $1500 to replace things I wanted replaced and a clutch. It wasn’t free, but it really didn’t cost much.

FTTOHG Has Moved to https://opposite-lock.com > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 02:01

Does the ‘17 still have that awful transmission? A friend of my wife’s was over yesterday after trading in a ‘14 Focus that was sitting on $5k in repair bills for a 2nd transmission replacement (first one was under warranty) and assorted front end and power steering issues.

duurtlang > MM54
06/11/2018 at 03:14

Based on that, you should just get a bicycle.

random001 > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 06:36

There was a time when I would perform these calculations. Then I realized how it was sucking the soul out of buying cars, and I stopped, and just drive whatever I want, however much I want. Damn the torpedoes!

RutRut > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 06:46

I did about two weeks ago, it went something like this:

20k miles per year

2013 F-250, 9 mpg average @$3/gallon

2017 STI, showing 23mpg @$3.50/gallon

Payment went up $150/mo (truck had 140k on it) but the fuel savings and maintenance cost for warranty vs. 140k mile truck more than negate it. Insurance delta was only ~$20/month.

Milky > Wuelling
06/11/2018 at 09:11

Wait, theres an end date to those things? Huh.

Grindintosecond > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 09:23

In Denver, any car from $3k-$6k in decent shape gets snapped up immediately during tax season. Your co worker isnt buying commuter cars if its not a $5k corolla or similar. Commuters are disposable 4 year cars because soending $1k a year average on purchase is less than leases or nicer cars. No point in a cts-v commuter or 10k focus. Math says 5k max purchase. Youll get 30mpg. Thats good enough that getting more mpg is just fractions of savings compared to not spending more on purchase.

Duck Duck Grey Duck FTMFW! > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/11/2018 at 10:35

It’s four. Three for me and one for my wife. Possibly five if race car happens. Boy, this could snowball : D

MM54 > duurtlang
06/11/2018 at 17:39

If the weather here weren’t shit 75% of the time, I’d consider it. That, and the roads don’t have shoulders or sidewalks and are the surface quality of the moon.

Wuelling > Milky
06/11/2018 at 21:02

Ive been told. Probably why the wife agreed haha. I’ll be an old man when they are paid

Chan - Mid-engine with cabin fever > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/12/2018 at 02:00

People around here (SF Bay Area) seem to be pretty practical. Plenty of older Japanese metal kept running in decent condition, especially with Asian people who tend to be financially conservative.

wkiernan > Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo
06/12/2018 at 21:47

I bought a $10K car recently, and I feel horribly guilty every time I drive it. My limit was always $8K, I was going to stick to it, but then this unfortunate young kid ran a red light.

Actually, he didn’t run a red light, he pulled out on an unmarked one-way street, there wasn’t any light in his direction so he just up and went, right across my green light. I almost stopped in time. Seriously, one more foot and I’d have missed him clean. But anyway the very delicate impact very slightly dented the rear quarter-panel of his Dad’s Tahoe, and skinned the plastic bumper cover and fractured the passenger side headlight on my Miata.

So we exchanged d.l.s and insurance cards, a competent and polite St. Petersburg policeman showed up, he gave me and the kid a standard form with each others’s insurance POC on it, and we all drove off.

A couple days later I went to a local Chevy dealership with GEICO in the back and a nice lady looked at my mostly cosmetic damage and I left with a check for $2100. Supposedly this would have restored my ‘04 to the cosmetic status quo ante. Instead I spent:

$14 on an 3 pound Estwing driller’s hammer (hood was slightly bent, plus I don’t have a sluggo at home so it was Time)

$100 on a lightly used headlight assembly off eBay

$15 or so on various plastic rivets from various auto supply stores (everybody only had 2 or 3)

$9 for a can of Bondo (pro tip - Bondo is totally not the thing you want to patch a plastic bumper)

with which I patched up my old ‘04 good enough to drive, boy is it ugly, but leaving me almost $2k more to squander on the new car I bought.

So I did that but now I’m all “FOOL! you were SUCH A FOOL! but wow-EE this big ol’ luxurious thing is reeeely nice (purrrrrrr)” (“luxurious” for this new-to-me NC has got that additional 3/4" clearance for my right leg that I’ve always dreamt about whenever I drove my NB, my other NB, or my NA).

wkiernan > Milky
06/12/2018 at 21:56

The longer you keep a car the better you like it. Ultimately it gets to where you can drive it with no conscious input whatsoever, it’s, like, not a tool but a limb, and that’s the best.

Dr. Zoidberg - RIP Oppo > wkiernan
06/12/2018 at 22:27

A penny saved is a penny earned — and then spent later

Milky > wkiernan
06/13/2018 at 09:25

I put 115,ooo miles on my last car, so I think I understand what you’re saying. At a certain point, you don’t even notice the car. But I’d still say you’re better off not starting at a place of hate.