Sorry Michigan and Ohio, they Aren't Building it there.

"ImmoralMinority" (araimondo) 08/18/2017 at 10:34 • Filed to: None

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There is no way in hell that plant is getting built in a state with a strong union presence. It is going to a right to work state, probably in the South.

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I am not saying this is right or wrong, but it is true.

What is also true is that while people on both left and right are freaking out that their farthest fringes are controlling the country, the country is doing remarkably well.

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Again, not a judgment, not an endorsement of either party trying to take credit for it, jist pointing out that we have a weird way of believing we are living in disaster when we are doing well.

At least there will be jobs during the race war. (I need to stop looking at Splinter.)

jimz > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 10:42

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Michigan has been right to work since 2012.

WilliamsSW > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 10:43

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Your first point is dead on, but MI/OH may offer more incentives to try to overcome that handicap, thus giving Toyota-Mazda leverage over the right-to-work states. Certainly not endorsing that either, but it’s the reality of having disparate labor laws across the country.

And what on EARTH does a Tu-95 Bear have to do with an article on the economy? Very click-baity on Marketwatch’s part.

nermal > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 10:46

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Yep. From a business negotiation standpoint, the manufacturers will get tax incentive bids from OH and MI, and use those to get a better deal from one of the non-union Southern states where they eventually build it. That’s smart business. Good for wherever the plant ends up being built as well, since it will probably be a poorer area with low labor costs.

Agreed that the economy is doing great - unemployment is down, jobs are up, stock market is up, and consumer confidence is up, with no signs of any of those changing trajectory. Some industries may benefit or not - I’m gonna make a risky bet that the monument building industry is going to soar, due to needing to replace all of the ones that are getting torn down. The price for bronze will drop, given all of the torn down statues that will be inevitably melted down.

nerd_racing > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 10:50

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Good. We don’t need Mazdas getting more expensive and sales declining.

ttyymmnn > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 10:51

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Why does that Market Watch article use a picture of a Russian Tu-95 in a discussion of the US economy?

WilliamsSW > ttyymmnn 08/18/2017 at 10:55

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That was my main takeaway from that article, too.

Future next gen S2000 owner > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 10:59

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This recovery is unusual. Yes jobs are being created but they aren’t of the higher end variety with good benefit and pay. For example, Amazon is opening a warehouse near me in Denver. Warehouses typically don’t pay all that well. Also there are ton’s of fast food joins opening up near me, again, jobs but the pay is garbage.

Union manufacturing allowed huge portions of the US to support a family on one income. Those types aren’t being replaced at the same rate as being lost. They also aren’t coming back, ever. The other aspect is jobs are being created in larger urban centers. A large number of towns have one large plant that closed down and basically took the town with it - this is more of a decades long trend. The people don’t have the skillset or resources to move to the jobs.

It is a weird recovery. Hot in certain areas, not existing in others, and some places never really experienced the recession - I talking about real small towns they never experienced the runup before and are basically self sufficient.

Bman76 (hates WS6 hoods, is on his phone and has 4 burners now) > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 11:00

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Except that all the manufacturing and suppliers needed are in that area.

Textured Soy Protein > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 11:07

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The unemployment keeps shrinking but the median wage is not rising. Retail (and warehouses for online retail) and food service sectors are growing lots of jobs but don’t pay well.

Manufacturing is making a comeback in lots of places, and while there is a labor shortage, there’s still intense pressure to keep wages down. Skilled manufacturing jobs can pay very well but low-skill manufacturing jobs struggle to crack $12/hr.

Here in Wisconsin which has been made extremely anti-worker under Scott Walker, the unemployment rate is 3.2%. Factories struggle to fill their low-skilled positions. But they lean on staffing agencies who churn through people willing to take $10-12/hr shift work where the main qualification is being able to pass a drug screen.

Skilled trades and manufacturing people can make $50-70k or more without a college degree no problem, if they get the right training and opportunities. These sectors are also struggling to find people.

There needs to be better promotion of vocational education for skilled trades and manufacturing. These jobs won’t easily be replaced by automation and they offer a good opportunity for a middle-class wage.

I’m just disappointed at the relatively low amount of income that qualifies someone as “middle class.” In most places that aren’t remote/rural with very low property values, a household needs to be in roughly the 75th percentile of income to comfortably afford, i.e. pay for these things while still saving money, a house, a couple cars and 2.4 children.

merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc > WilliamsSW 08/18/2017 at 11:20

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Also, MI has the engineering housed here, and access to transport abounds. The union deal isn’t as big a deal as it was and MI is right to work. And there is plenty of land to hand over for development. We are working on a plant for a supplier that was basically given to that supplier for nothing due to the added jobs.

shpuker > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 11:34

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Considering the fact that Toyota’s WHQ is in Texas, something tells me it’s going to end up in Texas.

If not then I’d expect them to target areas where the brands already have a strong manufacturing presence. So for Toyota you had Indiana, Texas (again), Kentucky, and Mississippi. For Mazda you really only have Cali, but even then it isn’t a manufacturing presence and regulations are far too strict there. My shortlist:

1) Texas
Toyota already relocated their WHQ there and has a plant/supply chain already.

2) Indiana
Close to the supply chains in Michigan and Ohio, plus Toyota already has a plant in the area.

3) Ohio
Had to throw in one odd-ball choice. Honda has a remarkably strong presence in Ohio though, giving the Japanese automakers a good foothold to try and start off on. The supply chain is an obvious draw, you get easier access to the great lakes for shipping purposes, and moving into a 5th state (for Toyota) gives it a layer of shielding from any one state tightening regulations.

WilliamsSW > merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc 08/18/2017 at 11:42

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It would be nice to see one of the brownfield sites in Michigan handed over for this- I don’t think there’s any shortage of workers readily available.

It comes down to numbers - and companies do tease states in order to bring additional negotiating leverage against their preferred choices.

merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc > WilliamsSW 08/18/2017 at 11:58

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Truth. It’s going to be all about the dollars.

TomServo (Resides on the Satellite of Love) > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 11:58

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Should go to West Virginia. Close to pretty much everything, lots of blue collar workers that can’t find jobs, and the need for some kind of manufacturing. We have a hino truck plant where I live, and it truly has helped the local economy.

vondon302 > ImmoralMinority 08/18/2017 at 12:38

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Michigan is a right to work state now but it still ain’t going there.