Politics: Curious Media Thing

"Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo" (rustyvandura) 10/19/2017 at 16:10 • Filed to: None

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!!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! about General Kelly criticizing Congresswoman Wilson and the WSJ doesn’t pick it up. At least not yet.

And !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! to a devastatingly frank analysis of the president’s behavior and some context. !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!!

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

nermal > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 17:16

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Kelly’s press conference was spot-on.

For the 2nd link, it seems to be a good analysis.

Whatever it is that Trump said that offended people will fade away, while they get offended by something else he says that will dominate conversations and the current news cycle.

In the meantime, the country is moving to unprecedented levels of prosperity, and he’s delivering on campaign promises, and improving America. Unemployment claims are at a 44 year low. ISIS has been dealt another blow in Syria. The stock market has been hitting a new high water mark 3 out of 5 days every week. Tax cuts are coming that will help the lower and middle class.

More Americans are in better shape today than they were a year ago. As long as that continues, he will have little opposition in 2020 if he chooses to run again.

Chariotoflove > nermal 10/19/2017 at 17:28

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As long as that continues, he will have little opposition in 2020 if he chooses to run again.

I think that is mostly true, although I don’t think it will be that easy for him. He doesn’t have much margin for error, and if the economy falters at all, he might lose that margin. I think the biggest key to his re-election may be the fact that the Democrats still don’t really have a contender to go against him when he does falter. Many analysts have talked about this. The Dems bullpen is empty, and it takes time to groom the next generation of candidates. I bet their wishing Evan Bayh was still around.

I wonder if any other Republicans (many of whom would make better presidents) would run against him?

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 17:33

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That was really interesting, thanks. I hadn’t delved into the soldier story that much. So, do I have it right that Kelly tried to brief Trump for the conversation beforehand, and he fumbled it up? I can kind of believe that. And Trump sure doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt on sensitivity issues.

That analysis piece is interesting, too. But, I don’t know if Trump is the mastermind the piece kind of makes him out to be. I thought he was just being Trump, and letting the chips fall where they may because it’s worked for him so far.

LongbowMkII > nermal 10/19/2017 at 17:43

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Middle and lower class lol

nermal > Chariotoflove 10/19/2017 at 17:45

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Agreed that keeping the economy moving is absolutely critical for Trump, and his re-election chances. Add not getting nuked to that list as well.

Who could the Rs put against him? Ted Cruz? Paul Ryan? Mike Pence?

On the D side, Hillary is thankfully out. Bernie is too old. Biden is also too old.

Evan McMullin was an interesting choice last year, but didn’t really get any traction. He may do have a better shot next time with more funding.

fintail > nermal 10/19/2017 at 18:01

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I think any improvement is despite 45's efforts, rather than via them.

Many of the economic topics can be considered lagging indicators.

But I suppose we should all be thankful his round mouth and lack of self control aren’t sinking the ship.

Chariotoflove > nermal 10/19/2017 at 18:22

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Evan who? I don’t think Pence would go up against Trump. It would be suicide. I liked Kasich on policy, but he didn’t seem to have much campaigning ability. Cruz and Ryan are polarizing without the charisma. I don’t know who else could be successful.

nermal > Chariotoflove 10/19/2017 at 18:30

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Evan McMullin. The guy from Utah. He got 20% of the vote in the state.

Chariotoflove > nermal 10/19/2017 at 18:31

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I believe you.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > nermal 10/19/2017 at 19:42

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And my medical insurance just rose from $1500/mo to $1800/mo for the cheapest ACA plan available. My options are to pay more, or go without.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > nermal 10/19/2017 at 19:45

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Do you think you could offer me an explanation, in your words and as you see it, of what identity politics are?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 10/19/2017 at 19:53

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One of the most telling things, to me, that ever came out of Donald Trump’s mouth, was when he went to France and gave us all a seven-word lecture on France’s involvement in the American Revolution. To me, his comments said that he’d only just discovered that interesting factoid, probably in between looking at the president of France’s wife’s legs and wishing that some good looking 40-year-old teacher had taken an interest in him when he was 19. But I digress. I truly believe that Donald Trump is a shallow, hateful, entirely self-centered man. I think he has zero charms and is not interested in anything but Donald Trump.

Mastermind? I don’t think Professor Hansen is saying that directly. I don’t think there is any way that President Trump can come up with what he does entirely on his own. I just do not believe he has the capacity. More likely, I think that people play him for their gain by saying, “Imagine how popular you will be if you do this . Or that .”

I’ll tell you what did resonate with me from the Hansen piece: that the Iran arrangement is a treaty and should have been decided by Congress. And if BHO was such an evil writer of executive orders, what led up to that?

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 20:35

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I wouldn’t give Trump so little credit for intelligence. But I agree that he’s spectacularly self- absorbed. Still, I don’t think he’s being manipulated. Rather, the source of all the uproar right now is that no one seems to be able to contain him.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 10/19/2017 at 20:38

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The guy certainly isn’t stupid. I just find him charmless and self absorbed and unfeeling.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 21:07

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Yeah, not my favorite personality either.

nermal > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 21:16

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Yep, 20% increase in cost in a year. Not surprising in the slightest. You’ve probably seen costs rise by double digit % for that last several years if you’ve been on it.

That’s the front line effect of “Obamacare is a disaster, and is imploding.”

nermal > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 21:24

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The basic principle is that identity politics is using your a part of your identity as the basis of your political influence. Traditionally used by minority groups. “Gays for....” “Blacks for....” etc.

Why?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > nermal 10/19/2017 at 21:25

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I am told by some that recent years have seen record profit taking by insurance companies. I am told by others that if I want to see my rates rise, I should vote Republican. What I opine is that American medical care is too expensive, any way you slice it.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 10/19/2017 at 21:26

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I heard Pence painted as a guy with a bleak political future when Trump tapped him for VP.

nermal > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 22:15

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A quick check in stock prices for Aetna, Cigna, and United Health shows a 5 year increase of 3-400%. They all went from $45-50 to $150-$200.

You are correct that American health care is expensive. It’s also very good - there are people that are alive today, for longer, with better quality of life, that would not have made it even 10 yrs ago. As health care technology grows and expands, costs go up.

The fundamental problem with the American health care system is paying for the top 5% of patients, by cost. Think Jimmy Kimmel’s kid - His lifetime care will cost over $1 Million just from the problems he was born with. Those costs need to be spread out over everybody else. Add in people that need an organ transplant at $500k, open heart surgery for $200k, an emergency room visit with a helicopter ride for $50k.

All of those costs need to be spread out over the pool of individuals in it, obviously with their health care costs, plus admin costs and profit added on top. How should individual premiums be assigned? Equally, or based on risk? What are acceptable factors for increasing premiums for higher risk individuals? Age? Gender? Obesity? Smoking? Riding a motorcycle? Results of a fitness test?

What about ethics? Should we do expensive procedures with low chance of success?

It’s a complicated issue. The ACA was a band-aid that helped some in the short term, but isn’t a long term solution. The bills that have been presented to repeal & replace it have been crappy, and that’s why they didn’t pass. Trump is now playing hard ball and forcing action with his order to stop subsidy payments. TBD if that proves to be effective.

nermal > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 22:17

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Pence was selected because he secured the stereotypical old-white-guy conservative base, which Trump knew he needed to win the election.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 22:40

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I fear that may be. He was a popular and, from what I heard, respected governor. But he will only be in Trump’s shadow, I fear.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > nermal 10/19/2017 at 22:49

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It is disengenous to say the increase in health insurance stock prices are due to the additional costs, when all stocks have seen a similar growth in the last 5 years.

gmporschenut also a fan of hondas > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/19/2017 at 23:07

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It is disengenous to link the stock value of the health unsurance companies soley with the ACA, with the huge gains the nyse has seen since the 2008 crash.

“The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is up 36 percent since the 2016 election, a continuation of the almost decade-long rally that began in 2009 and has seen the gauge more than triple.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/trump-likes-watching-markets-go-up-and-sending-companies-down

An additional thing to look up is what contribution your employer is paying. To cut their own costs, empolers are reducing their contributions sticking employees with a greater share of the premium. Whereas in the past they might have swallowed all the increases.

“However, workers’ average contributions to household premiums have increased more rapidly than the employer’s share since 2012 at 32 percent to 14 percent.’ http://www.journalnow.com/business/business_news/local/employer-sponsored-health-plans-may-remain-at-low-single-digit/article_8fa3dae5-7766-5df3-90d5-600c9cda19cd.html

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > gmporschenut also a fan of hondas 10/20/2017 at 05:29

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My employer’s contribution has been exactly the same for the 15 years I’ve worked for them, something like $4000/year. I pay the rest and I write the check to Kaiser Permanente each month for my coverage.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > nermal 10/20/2017 at 05:36

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I pay about 20% of my gross annual salary to healthcare premiums. I understand the concept of spreading risk and I’m fine with the concept, but 20% of my salary seems like a lot.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > nermal 10/20/2017 at 05:44

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I asked because I am not entirely clear on the concept. I’ve been aware of your screen name for a long time, but never had any notion of your politics. I can’t be entirely clear what they are, nor does it matter, really, but you seem adept at articulating what strikes me as a relatively conservative viewpoint. That identity politics as a thing is stated again and again in criticism of American liberals makes me curious to learn just what is being discussed. White America has a difficult time when it comes to examining what it is to be not white — or male or heterosexual — in the US. White people can get very defensive about being white and considering what advantages come along with it in our society.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > nermal 10/20/2017 at 05:45

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I’ve been writing the check for my own healthcare insurance for more than fifteen years. A 15-20% increase in the cost is something I was bracing myself for every year long before the ACA came along.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 10/20/2017 at 05:49

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Trump casts his shadow over all of us, young, old, you name it. And it’s a dark shadow.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/20/2017 at 12:41

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So, I’ll save money on sun screen for the next three years!

#glasshalffull

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 10/20/2017 at 13:23

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Don’t you mean seven more years?

I’m a glass-half-full guy as well. That’s why I framed my last remark so positively.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo 10/20/2017 at 13:31

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Ha! Okay, lets hope for the best.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Chariotoflove 10/20/2017 at 13:36

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I want to feel good about what’s going on and I haven’t had much opportunity yet. The POTUS wakes up in the morning and tweets demonstrably false statements and he is genuinely mean and in the face of that, I have to try to get my students to be honest and kind to one another. That is not good.