About Tesla's Master Plan, Part Deux

"Out, but with a W - has found the answer" (belg) 07/27/2016 at 11:36 • Filed to: None

2

7

Everyone seems to be talking about the future pickup and semi trucks, but I’m more intrigued by the urban transport.

In addition to consumer vehicles, there are two other types of electric vehicle needed: heavy-duty trucks and high passenger-density urban transport. Both are in the early stages of development at Tesla and should be ready for unveiling next year. [...]

With the advent of autonomy, it will probably make sense to shrink the size of buses and transition the role of bus driver to that of fleet manager. Traffic congestion would improve due to increased passenger areal density by eliminating the center aisle and putting seats where there are currently entryways , and matching acceleration and braking to other vehicles, thus avoiding the inertial impedance to smooth traffic flow of traditional heavy buses. It would also take people all the way to their destination . Fixed summon buttons at existing bus stops would serve those who don’t have a phone. Design accommodates wheelchairs, strollers and bikes.

(Emphasis mine)

This sounds less like a bus to me, and more like some kind of autonomous pod.

The only way I can currently think of to eliminate the aisle and the doors, would be to turn the whole side of the vehicle in a sliding or upwards opening door (perhaps segmented), and to lower the number of seat in a row. This would lead to an extremely costly structure (imagine falcon doors along the length of a bus), unless the bus is seriously downsized, i.e. a pod.

The EZ10, a test project for a self-driving shuttle

Additionally, taking people all the way to their destination would lead to low average occupancy rates and routing problems, unless the buses have low capacity, again resulting in small shuttle pods.

Musk indeed mentions those shrinking dimensions, but that seems at odds with the goal of increasing the areal density. Let’s take the Mercedes-Benz Citaro as an example of your average city bus. It’s got a capacity of 105 passengers (32 seats) for a length of 11,95m, or about 8,8 passenger/m.

Mercedes-Benz Citaro

If we take the EZ10 as an example of what a Tesla pod could be, we have a capacity of 12 passengers (6 seats) for a length of 3,93m, or about 3,1 passengers/m. Assuming a safe inter-pod distance of 30 cm (seems reasonable in case of full autonomy and V2V communication), this ratio drops to 2,8. Granted, the EV10 is spacious inside, but it’s not like you could cram a lot more passengers into it.

I expect a pod system to be beneficial for low-density areas, where buses run practically empty most of the time, and people need to walk a long way for a bus stop. On busy city lines however, I have my doubts. But hey, perhaps they’ll design a full-size Tesla bus for that application, who knows?

What do you think, Oppo?

Also, can we get Torchinsky on this for potential designs?

Tekamul > Out, but with a W - has found the answer 07/27/2016 at 12:01

1

Buses in other parts of the world have had aisle seats for years. They just fold down from the adjacent seat.

But in this case, combined with the continuation to the final destination, I think it is indeed high capacity pods between minivan and bus size.

Flyboy is FAA certified insane > Out, but with a W - has found the answer 07/27/2016 at 12:17

0

Match the acceleration and braking of other vehicles? Race bus anyone?

Out, but with a W - has found the answer > Flyboy is FAA certified insane 07/27/2016 at 12:18

1

Race bus!

Wacko > Out, but with a W - has found the answer 07/27/2016 at 12:42

1

needs more cool bus

fennelbreath > Out, but with a W - has found the answer 07/27/2016 at 13:30

0

I’m really excited about the possibility of cleaner and more efficient public transportation, but this has me a little skeptical. I think bringing passengers all the way to their destinations is a stepping stone to eventually having only that type of automated mass transportation.

Although I’m currently doing research for an article I’m writing about EV tax credits and wading through various states’ websites is making me feel like this sort of hyper-efficiency is very far away.

I give Tesla credit for playing the long game.

Out, but with a W - has found the answer > fennelbreath 07/28/2016 at 05:11

0

I’m expecting a hub-and-spoke model in the long run, with high capacity buses/trams on the main arteries, and pods for the last mile (cue WALL-E imagery). It didn’t really work out as expected in the airline industry, but that was a different situation from the start.

Good luck with the article, will it be on Oppo?

fennelbreath > Out, but with a W - has found the answer 07/28/2016 at 08:43

1

I think city/suburb infrastructure will have to change a lot for that to work. It’ll be interesting.

Thanks. It’ll be on one of the websites I write for. I don’t share them here because this is the last place on the internet I’m semi-anonymous.