US Great Recession: What Would Things Be Like If It Had Not Happened?

"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind) 07/14/2016 at 20:46 • Filed to: Question

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Would GM have changed? Would we have had a !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! on the market sitting between the then new GTR and Lexus LFA? Would we have a Focus ST/Mazdaspeed3 and a Fusion Sport/Mazdaspeed6? Would the Korean brands have found enough success to start a luxury brand? Would Fiat ever have the opportunity to merge with Chrysler? Would cars be so globalized?

Is anything else coming up (or recently happened) that will completely flip the industry around?

CB > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 20:50

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Wait, what’s the question?

LongbowMkII > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 20:53

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Used cars would’ve been a lot cheaper. Fucking cash4clunkers.

THANKS OBAMA.

TheHondaBro > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 20:53

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All the things would be better off. That’s all I have to say.

Nick Has an Exocet > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 20:53

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GM: The Camaro wouldn’t have a Turbo 4. Cadillac would have but a V8 in the ATS. Pontiac would be making a new flying chicken.

Toyota: May have killed Scion sooner - no FRS/BRZ. But maybe a Supra instead. I’d call that a net positive.

TheHondaBro > CB 07/14/2016 at 20:54

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I don’t know, something to do with recess?

ranwhenparked > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 20:54

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I suspect GM and Chrysler would have gone through bankruptcy anyway - it might have happened a few years later than it did, but its hard to see how either of them could have survived without it.

Wobbles the Mind > CB 07/14/2016 at 20:58

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Everything is the question. If the US didn’t tank, what would the automotive industry look like? I’m also wondering what will happen when this giant generation of Chinese working aged citizens all retire since the birth restrictioned generations can’t possibly replace or support them.

not for canada - australian in disguise > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 20:58

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We’d have utes.

:(

Nick Has an Exocet > LongbowMkII 07/14/2016 at 20:58

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Holy shit you’re right.

RallyWrench > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:01

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Purely electric cars and autonomous drive are already flipping the industry over and will only continue to do so. They arguably would not be doing so at such a great pace without the recession, since government financing for green initiatives increased in its wake, and were a condition for getting the money in many cases.

dogisbadob > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:03

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Globalization predates the New Depression, as NAFTA started about 10 years before shit started to get so bad.

CB > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:03

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In that case, things would have continued in a steady spiral downwards until a different recession occurred.

Honestly, I think it was a good thing for the automotive industry, because it gave everyone a bit of a reality check. I understand that the companies couldn’t be let to fail, but it was a good motivator to get their ducks in a row and start making actually decent products.

fintail > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:05

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No C4C maybe? I still cringe at some of the waste.

Aaron M - MasoFiST > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:14

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If the US didn’t tank, domestic cars would be a whole lot worse and imports would be a whole lot more expensive. Even though a lot of the captive manufacturing had started prior to 2008, the groundwork for relative expansion was laid in the recession and the need for economic growth, as well as the relative price of labor between UAW plants and non-union import plants.

Economic downturns also cause all firms, bankrupt or not, to trim the fat. At the end of a downturn the remaining employees tend to be more productive and more efficient than the workforce that was there before. So in the long run, the recession likely trimmed up the underlying costs of all cars, both by encouraging automation and allowing the companies to lay off less productive workers.

jimz > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:15

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GM and Chrysler would still have gone bankrupt, but:

1) they may have been able to secure private DIP financing, but that means:

2) it would have been a much longer, drawn out process,

3) they’d both be quite a bit smaller

4) it might still have taken large suppliers like Visteon, Delphi, and JCI automotive down.

ranwhenparked > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 21:20

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Same thing that’s about to happen to Japan, only on a much, much, bigger scale.

ranwhenparked > jimz 07/14/2016 at 21:23

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Assuming the government didn’t intervene, both probably would have wound up under foreign control. As it was, Dongfeng Motor Corp. did express some interest in GM in 2008/9. Somebody else would have taken Chrysler - though not Fiat, since it would have required actual money.

Carbon Fiber Sasquatch > Wobbles the Mind 07/14/2016 at 23:04

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Pontiac solstice with a small block up front.

boxrocket > Wobbles the Mind 07/15/2016 at 09:05

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It still would have happened eventually, because the banking/finance industries were royally screwing themselves and their customers, and they knew it, and knew there wouldn’t be a way out once it went public.

But in the alternate history where the banking/finance and automotive industries were properly capable of managing monies, I think we’d be a few years ahead of where we are, production-wise.

The recession put a big pause on R&D, and gas prices took a toll on truck sales, which are domestic truck makers’ cash cows. Using the Ford Expedition and Lincoln Navigator as an example, we were already supposed to have new versions with aluminum bodies on the new F-150's platform on sale by now, but instead, they kept making the same vehicles with cosmetic refreshes (and last year a more comprehensive one with the EcoBoost engine) as a placeholder until they could finish R&D on them.

Ford might still own its Premier Automotive Group (Aston Martin, Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo), and be able to properly fund them, and Lincoln, Jaguar, and Volvo might have shared the RWD platform that went to the F-Type, F-PACE, and XF, or perhaps the S550 Mustang platform for a lower-end coupe model for Jaguar, sedans for Volvo and Lincoln, and perhaps Ford Australia to replace the Falcon. The F-PACE might not exist, because of Land Rover. Mazda would be a year ahead of its current schedule, and we’d be welcoming a new Mazdaspeed3 or 6 this year to keep sales up while they worked on a bigger refresh of their now-oldest models.

GM would still be carrying too many overlapping brands, though SAAB may have gotten the axe by now. GMC and Hummer may have been merged into one brand, as the bean counters would require justification for both. It’s possible Buick would be Chinese-only at this point.

Daimler would still be screwing Chrysler over, and maybe killed off Chrysler (the brand) entirely, unless they sold them off by then. Jeep remains strong, despite having to use M-B leftovers.

Toyota, Nissan, and Honda/Acura wouldn’t be changed much.

VAG would be bigger, and fewer diesels would have been sold. In fact, they might have become the hybrid-vehicle powerhouse that Toyota is.

Renault and Citroën probably merged, or joined with FIAT.

Tesla, like Fisker and Coda and others, folded. The larger companies (or oil companies) buy up their patents and IP, most going to Ford, so they can stop relying on Toyota so much for hybrid tech or spending billions more on their own R&D. The Energi line starts using Tesla designs inside and out, and Ford makes a concept vehicle that blends the AWD powertrain of the P90D with a futuristic Mustang-like body, which, like the GT90, Mach III, and Indigo before it, never sees production.

Cash for Clunkers never happened, so folks would be trading those vehicles in now, keeping up the ongoing cycle, and improving the used-car market from stratospheric pricing.

Companies would be 2-3 years closer to reaching the proposed CAFE 2020 goals.

Casey Chan never works for Gawker Media.