Why Trump Lost Last Night

"Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo" (rustyvandura)
02/02/2016 at 14:34 • Filed to: None

“Voters who had any education beyond high school — 84% of the electorate — mostly broke for Rubio and Cruz over Trump.”

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

DISCUSSION (47)

Stapleface > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 14:45

If this really is the trend, then it looks like Trump will get the nomination. How many people without a secondary education vote? A whole lot.

For Sweden > Stapleface
02/02/2016 at 14:46

Too late. Trump and his fans don’t support losers like Trump.

ttyymmnn > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 14:49

I read an article in the NYT (or WaPo, don’t remember) that said Cruz won the old fashioned way. He stumped in all 99 counties, while Trump jetted from city to city. He preaches a working-man’s mantra, but he hasn’t worked a day in years, and he actually has complete contempt for the people he claims to represent.

Mercedes Streeter > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 14:50

Honestly, I hoped for Trump to win last night. Trump is a whole lot of bark with very little bite. He would get demolished in the election, even if he were running against O’Malley.

On the other hand, Ted Cruz has more bite than he has bark...and is just as insane as Trump, but not as willing to voice his insanity as Trump. And, he has enough of a crazy following to put up a good fight with any Democrat.

PS9 > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 14:52

I would not call this result a ‘stunning upset’. Remember; at this stage in the presidential race, the winner is not the one with the highest percentage of votes, but the one who has been awarded the most delegates to send to the convention. Cruz may have won Iowa, but the victory places him only 1 delegate away from Trump and Rubio. The race is basically tied between the three of them right now.

wiffleballtony > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 14:52

It’s been pretty well documented over the past decades that polls are not reliable.

Mercedes Streeter > wiffleballtony
02/02/2016 at 14:54

Yep. Iowa is only ground zero. Trump can still easily hit a home run and take the nominee.

CM > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 14:54

yes, damn those libertarians and their love of small government and low taxes!

DrJohannVegas > For Sweden
02/02/2016 at 14:56

Makes sense. I’ve known for years they can barely support themselves.

Mercedes Streeter > CM
02/02/2016 at 15:00

[Redacted] This is Oppo, it’s not worth it this time. lol

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > ttyymmnn
02/02/2016 at 15:01

And what politician doesn’t doesn’t have contempt for the schlubs they’re forced to represent? The primary thing I like(d) about Trump was that he wasn’t Cruz.

Can the country have just gotten over Donald Trump?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:02

Or, perhaps, the country has just gotten over him.

ttyymmnn > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 15:02

Who knows? I'm hoping he just gets bored and goes away.

Mercedes Streeter > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 15:03

Honestly, I hope the country hasn’t. Ted Cruz is well documented enough to be arguably worse than Trump...he’s just not stupid (or famous) enough to try using hate as legitimate talking points.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:04

Iowa isn’t even ground zero, it’s just the state with weird election laws that makes it a state that the media watches. Everyone makes too big a deal out of the early-caucus states. Some state could move it back to a day before them and the media circus would happen there instead.

Short-throw Granny Shifter is 2 #blessed 2b stressed > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:04

FWIW, I don’t think Trump believes half if what he says. A rich, NYC raised, documented liberal can’t possibly believe these things, can he? I think he has his whole constituency fooled in an effort to service his own vanity.

Mercedes Streeter > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
02/02/2016 at 15:05

Very true. And heck, you can be the unpopular guy through the entirety of the election and still get the win.

Only thing Iowa may confirm is that at this point, it’s definitely Trump v. Cruz for the nominee.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:07

What I like about DT:

* Ain’t Evangelical

* Ain’t Cruz

* Ain’t Anti-gay

Mercedes Streeter > Short-throw Granny Shifter is 2 #blessed 2b stressed
02/02/2016 at 15:08

Correct, that’s what I’m thinking, hence the analogy of big bark but no actual bite. Trump knows how to get the people going and cheering for him...however if you look at his history, he’s about as sketchy as one of those Nigerian Prince emails.

His supporters are dumb enough to believe he’s legit, but he himself is probably the biggest troll to ever hit an election cycle.

That’s why I hope he gets the nominee. I mean it’ll be a landslide victory for the Democrats if it’s Trump v. anyone else. lol

Mercedes Streeter > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 15:13

That actually is quite amusing. Even he realizes that attacking the lbgt community is a futile exercise of stupidity. Americans aren’t so hot about hating gay people anymore (the hate still exists, but now it’s more-so towards the community as a whole rather than just gay people), but racism, oh boy that’s working very well for him. lol

The Ghost of Oppo > Stapleface
02/02/2016 at 15:16

This data would disagree with you. But that is a good thing

CM > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:21

what’s OPPO?

DrJohannVegas > The Ghost of Oppo
02/02/2016 at 15:21

Jax, the problem with the way that data is presented is that the Y axis is the proportion of that population which votes. So, this is missing the relative size of each population. While 80+% of post-secondary educated voting-age individuals vote, they are by no means a majority in the population.

- guy who works with CPS data

Edit 2: I pulled down the 2014 Educational Attainment data. Here’s the summary-

Less than High School - 12.3% of the population (~30% turnout in Pres. elections)

HS Grad - 29.6% of the population (~50% turnout in Pres. elections)

Some College to College grad - 47.7% of the population (~65% turnout in Pres. elections)

Post-Secondary - 10.4% of the population (~85% turnout in Pres. elections)

For my last trick, I’ve (incredibly roughly) estimated the expected share of turnout for each of the groups.

Less than High School - 6.3% of voters

HS Grad - 25.4% of voters

Some College to College grad - 53.1% of voters

Post-Secondary - 15.1% of voters

Mercedes Streeter > CM
02/02/2016 at 15:24

Oppositelock. The off-topic forum with a car theme; used to be Jalopnik’s official off-topic forum.

wiffleballtony > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:25

My belief is that when really comes down to it people won’t in good conscience vote for him.

CM > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 15:25

what’s a jalopnik?

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn
02/02/2016 at 15:28

This would be an actual concern, in addition to the competency question. He has a tendency to cut bait and bug out when the situation stops being profitable to him (I remember the Tour de Trump that lasted only a handful of years). This is a positive for a businessman, but not a political leader. It’s not such a big deal when someone like Clint Eastwood finds out being mayor of Carmel isn’t as much fun as he thought, and he quits. But, if your president quits...well, I don’t think he has a chance to be president anyway.

Chariotoflove > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 15:30

“Among the 20% of voters who chose a candidate based they thought could “win in November,” Rubio was the top pick by 20 points.”

I think the same.

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove
02/02/2016 at 15:33

I hope you're right. As a nation, we have been suffering from a dearth of decent candidates. Politics have turned into a chance to foist your own personal views on the populace rather representing their interests. Is America bankrupt in the leadership department? It's beginning to look that way. (And for the record, I'm pointing fingers at both sides of the aisle.)

Mercedes Streeter > CM
02/02/2016 at 15:34

!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!

The Ghost of Oppo > DrJohannVegas
02/02/2016 at 15:37

Yes I understand how percentages work on a y axis, but a quick check of census data tells me that 40% of the US population has either a bachelors or masters degree, and include in all of the associates degrees and “some college” people and I feel pretty confident. If 84% of Iowans qualify for “any education beyond high school”, I don’t think the rest of the country lags far behind.

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn
02/02/2016 at 15:43

I often wonder if the people who are best qualified have better things to do.

I espouse the view that those who want the job should by definition be disqualified from holding it (only half kidding).

And you know, it’s not necessarily the smartest or most accomplished that make the most effective leaders. It seems to take a strange mix of skills. For example, I don’t think that Ronald Reagan was the smartest or most educated president to hold the office in recent times. But, there is no question that he accomplished an amazing amount of his agenda, even while saddled with a hostile Congress.

DrJohannVegas > The Ghost of Oppo
02/02/2016 at 15:46

I edited my reply to you a couple of times. Didn’t mean to sound snarky, if that’s how it came across. The turnout numbers get misrepresented a lot (it drives me up the fucking wall) without any discussion of what portion of the population those groups represent. A general frustration was directed towards you. Apologies.

I went into CPS and pulled out proportions to match Prof. McDonald’s graphs. The national number is 68.2%, so Iowa is more educated than the national sample average. Source.

ttyymmnn > Chariotoflove
02/02/2016 at 16:01

I often wonder if the people who are best qualified have better things to do.

You are probably right, and that’s a shame (not that you’re right, but the situation). My feeling has always been that anybody should be able to be President/Congressman, but they can only do it once. One of the biggest problems with politics is that the day after somebody gets elected they start their re-election campaign.

Wrong Wheel Drive (41%) > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 16:03

Well if it is Trump vs Hilary, I know plenty of people that would vote for Trump because "Anything but Hilary". Honestly, I might agree with that camp in that case.

Chariotoflove > ttyymmnn
02/02/2016 at 16:17

And that’s a big problem. Even if you’re in it because you truly want to serve the country, you have to put a huge amount of your effort into your re-election, or you won’t get done what you intend. I wonder if maybe Representatives have it a bit better. They can string together long careers to get stuff done, but they undergo job review every two years. After a while, their relatively small constituents get to know them, and they don’t have to spend as much on marketing.

Or maybe not.

dogisbadob > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 16:17

Skipping the last debate sure didn’t help him. Of course he wouldn’t win the religious evangelical vote, but still, Trump is too close to the Clinton Dynasty, so perhaps some people felt that a vote for Trump is a vote for Hillary.

I thought Rubio and possibly even Carson would’ve done better than Canadian Cruz. They need to send that troll back, along with Justin Bieber.

Just a shame that Kasich didn’t do better. The only decent candidate in the GOP field. Rand Paul is OK as a second choice, but his lack of support for science funding is a bummer.

Win or lose, I’m glad that Trump entered the race because of the effect it had on Jeb, who was the pre-Trump front-runner. And I’m so glad the race won’t be Clinton Dynasty vs Bush Dynasty.

Mercedes Streeter > Wrong Wheel Drive (41%)
02/02/2016 at 16:22

Trump v. Hillary? Honestly, I’d vote for Trump. For me, the rules are “anything but Hillary and Trump”. However, I would vote for Trump he was paired up with Hillary...then promptly move out of the country if he wins.

Trump winning might just cause civil unrest with his haters and people who have a somewhat level head...Hillary winning really just means 4 more years of what we’ve been used to for the past decade.

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > dogisbadob
02/02/2016 at 16:22

I love how Trump has disrupted this election; I just wish he’d taken out Cruz.

haveacarortwoorthree2 > Eric @ opposite-lock.com
02/02/2016 at 16:33

Actually, I think Iowa historically has been pretty accurate on the Dem side (picking the last 5 — the two before that were won by a local boy (Sen Harkin) and a “neighbor” from Missouri (Gephardt)). Iowa errs on the Rep side though, missing the last two after a streak of four correct, which in turn was preceded by a 2-2 record).

haveacarortwoorthree2 > Short-throw Granny Shifter is 2 #blessed 2b stressed
02/02/2016 at 16:34

It depends on which half, considering that Trump changes his views depending on whether he is running for president or (presumably) telling the truth in a random interview from years past.

dogisbadob > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/02/2016 at 16:48

He still might; there’s still time. Iowa is just too religious, but I feel (and hope) Cruz’s demise comes eventually.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Mercedes Streeter
02/02/2016 at 17:09

Rubio is in a dead heat with them. He has the same number of delegates as Trump.

What’s amazing to me is how close Hillary and Bernie are.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > haveacarortwoorthree2
02/02/2016 at 17:12

You could get similar accuracy with a coin toss.

It’s more an indicator of who is spending the most money and/or getting the best returns on it.

Elections are not won by being the best candidate.

Eric @ opposite-lock.com > Short-throw Granny Shifter is 2 #blessed 2b stressed
02/02/2016 at 17:13

If anything, he’s trying to pull a Perot.

pip bip - choose Corrour > Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo
02/03/2016 at 05:47

Trump would have to be better than Cruz.

at least Trump was born in the USA unlike Cruz.

amirite?

or am i wrong?

Rusty Vandura - www.tinyurl.com/keepoppo > pip bip - choose Corrour
02/03/2016 at 10:59

I’m not going to nibble Trump’s bait about birther questions, but I loathe Ted Cruz almost as much as I loathe Hillary Clinton. So yes, I would prefer DT to either of those two.