When will peak VW buying time be?

"nermal" (nermal) 09/22/2015 at 09:02 • Filed to: ca-TDI-strophic, speculation, poorly done photoshops, buy buy buy, sell sell sell

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For those in the market for a new one, would it be best to buy now or wait a bit to see if prices drop even more?

Obviously used TDI Golf / Jetta / Passat models have plummeted in value in the past week, and you can’t buy a new one even if you want to. How about new, gas powered models? Touareg TDIs aren’t part of the issue (yet). Would now be a good time to lease one?

jariten1781 > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:08

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1966

The Ghost of Oppo > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:09

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I don’t know. Dealership employees are probably worried about job security at the moment and I don’t know if they’ll be willing to let them walk out the door for next to nothing.

punkgoose17 > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:17

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You can probably get a good deal on a VW now. The Touareg TDIs won’t be an issue because they use DEF to lower their NOx emissions, so they can actually meet the EPA standards when driven on the road.

DasWauto > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:18

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From the title I thought you were talking about stock prices, in which case I think it is now and then sell again when the price rebounds after this mess settles down a bit.

Under_Score > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:24

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Now they are!

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2015/09/breaki…

Stapleface-Now Hyphenated! > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:25

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I’m really not sure what’s going to happen with VW. Part of me says they need to cut their prices substantially, because people will be leery of them. But the other part of me says they’re screwed and need to get MORE for every car they can sell, since they have a ton of inventory they can’t move right now.

I’m kind of curious how this will work from a dealer’s perspective. They pay for the cars on the lot, so they have lots of incentive to churn the inventory. Since they can’t sell the cars, who’s on the hook for that? VW or the dealerships themselves? It’s not the dealer’s fault that VW got nailed by the EPA.

Ultimately though, I'm not sure how this plays out for VW. I know that VW has a large share of the diesel market in the US for passenger vehicles. But they still sell way more petrol powered cars. Will consumers ultimately care since the majority of them don't buy diesels anyway?

BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:30

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Are you SURE that used TDI prices would fall? Last available cars with great diesel mileage....

I would think they'd be very desirable in non-CA emissions states, just like the pre-emissions diesel trucks are.

Ash78, voting early and often > DasWauto 09/22/2015 at 09:30

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Yes — I bought yesterday before the additional news came out, should have waited until today, but I’m still holding long term.

The natural erosion of the stock price in the past 2 months was a lot bigger than the past 2 days of scandal, just to keep it in perspective.

Ash78, voting early and often > nermal 09/22/2015 at 09:32

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If you live in a state without emissions testing, I actually think used car tdi values will remain strong (or even increase) because you’ve got a unicorn on your hands. TDI depreciation curves were already pretty shallow. Have you already seen major price erosion?

I predict an influx of tdi sales INTO states with no emissions testing where people can run them freely.

nermal > BrianGriffin thinks “reliable” is just a state of mind 09/22/2015 at 09:47

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Interesting, and good point. The price on early 2000s diesel trucks hasn’t changed in the past 5 years of so, or if anything they’ve gone up a bit.

Sam > DasWauto 09/22/2015 at 09:50

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This. If the GTA V stock manipulation missions tell me anything, the price will rebound after the scandal is resolved.

nermal > Stapleface-Now Hyphenated! 09/22/2015 at 09:55

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The number I’ve seen thrown around is that TDIs account for about 25% of VW’s sales in the US. That’s definitely significant.

nermal > DasWauto 09/22/2015 at 09:56

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That too. Could it possibly get any worse though? What if it comes out that they’ve been doing the same thing for their gas powered cars?

DasWauto > Ash78, voting early and often 09/22/2015 at 11:22

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I’m thinking of getting in if and when the EPA comes down with its fine and/or when VW announces its plan to deal with the affected cars and what the bottom line on that is expected to be. I’d count on another drop from that news, buy then, sell quickly if I see a reasonable return short term, otherwise hang on to it for a few years if I don’t. I imagine your plan is similar.

DasWauto > Sam 09/22/2015 at 11:25

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A game that may be but it’s not entirely inaccurate.

Ash78, voting early and often > DasWauto 09/22/2015 at 11:27

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Everything I buy is on a 5-10 year hold plan and I’m still bullish on VW as a whole. The Chinese economic slowdown has hurt them more than this scandal and (barring any further/insane/kneejerk punitive reactions) China will continue to be the real elephant in the room for their success.

I certainly hope they find a select few engineers to take the fall and make it seem like an isolated, rogue incident that nobody else really knew about. Because if it was systemic fraud, I’m shocked it didn’t come to light sooner. Seems like a pretty amateurish thing to catch. I couldn’t pull that off for 6 years in my job ;)

DasWauto > nermal 09/22/2015 at 11:30

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I do think there might be another hit when the EPA comes down with their fine and/or when it becomes clearer what the cost will be for VW to fix the affected cars. I’m thinking of buying then.

I don’t think their gas-powered cars will be affected. This sort of programming to make a car do well on the standardised tests is not uncommon and gasoline doesn’t have the kind of NOx emissions that diesel does - in the case of gas cars it’s not really emmisions that the software tries to game on a test as much as fuel economy.

wiffleballtony > nermal 09/22/2015 at 11:33

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Ultimately it depends on the outcome. If it’s handled at a local level, the TDI models will be worthless in the inspection states. If it’s a federally mandated situation then they’re all worthless.