"carcrasher88" (carcrasher88)
09/12/2014 at 13:53 • Filed to: NASCAR, 2014 Chase For The Cup, Statistics
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"carcrasher88" (carcrasher88)
09/12/2014 at 13:53 • Filed to: NASCAR, 2014 Chase For The Cup, Statistics | 0
| 0 |
Well, the Chase is now upon us.
I thought I'd kick things off with my choices for the 4 most likely drivers to make the Contender round and the 4 drivers least likely to make the Contender round.
Let's start with the most likely.
4. Kevin Harvick
The #4 team has been relatively consistent as of late. Going by the last 6 races (Pocono-Richmond), they have 3 top 5s, 4 top 10s, and have led the most laps in 2 races, with a worst finish of 19th.
They've also made some changes to the pit crew, so they could get even better.
3. Joey Logano
Another consistent team, the #22 squad has the following stats in the last 6 races: 1 win, 3 top 5s, 5 top 10s, and a worst finish of 14th.
Logano's 3 wins this year include wins at Richmond and Bristol, tracks similar to two of the next 3 races, New Hampshire and Dover.
The #22 team will certainly be one to watch out for in the first round of the Chase.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
The #88 team has been one of the most consistent teams in the garage this season.
With 3 wins and only 3 finishes outside the top 25, they're on a pretty hot streak on their quest to score Jr's first Cup championship, and give Steve Letarte the best possible parting gift as he leaves the pit box next year to be part of NBC's broadcast team.
Plus, it probably helps that two of the tracks in these first 3 races, Jr has top 10s at (Dover: 9th, New Hampshire: 10th), and that Jr. won at Chicago in '05.
1. Jeff Gordon
The Drive for Five is well alive for the #24 crew, another driver with a prior win at Chicago, Gordon probably has the best chance of making the Challenger round of the 16 contenders, even though Gordon's finishes this year at Dover and New Hampshire were among the worst of the Chase field (15th and 26th, respectively).
A worst finish of 39th is really the main thing that puts him at #1 on my list and not Jr., who has a 43rd place finish this year.
As for the 4 most likely NOT to make the next round:
4. Aric Almirola
Now, just because Aric is at #4 doesn't mean he doesn't have a chance.
With two consecutive top 10 finishes in the last two races, including a 9th at Atlanta, one of the closest tracks to Chicago, and a 10th at Richmond, a smaller track like New Hampshire and Dover, he's still got a good shot, it's just that it's not enough of a shot to keep him from this list.
On top of that, he has a 12th place finish earlier this year at Dover. He may be on this list, but certainly don't count the Petty #43 out before the first race.
3. Ryan Newman
Ryan and the #31 team are on this list because even though they've been consistent this year, that consistency mainly comprises of top 20s and top 10s, not top 5s or wins.
The only RCR driver to make the chase, and one of only two with RCR powered cars, the chances aren't bleak for the #31 team, just not as good as one would hope for.
2. AJ Allmendinger
Dinger's had a rough season. Most of his finishes have been outside the top 20. 1 win (on a track that has no comparable in the Chase), 2 top 5s, 4 top 10s don't help him too much here, but the fact that he has only 3 finishes outside the top 30 is the main reason he's at #2 and not #1.
So, who's the driver I think is least likely to make the next round of the Chase?
1. Kyle Busch
That's right, Rowdy.
And they've been very inconsistent this season. Though Allmendinger's worst finish (43rd) is worse than Kyle's (42nd), he's had more finishes outside the top 30 than the #47 (#47: 4, #18: 6).
Four of those six? Within the last 6 races. That gives AJ a better average finish in the last 6 races (AJ: 20.83 vs KB: 31.16).
Not only that, but Kyle's best finishes have been worse than AJs (1st and 13th, vs 14th and 16th).
His early run this season may have helped him get a higher spot in the Chase, as of late, even a driver that had to win to make the Chase has a better chance of doing well.
Of course, this is the Chase, and anything can happen. But based on statistics, this is where I think the drivers stand.
All of the other drivers would likely fill slots 5-12 in this order: #48, #2, #99, #41, #5, #20, #16, and #11