Fantasy WRC Preview: Portugal

"Dusty Ventures" (dustyventures) 03/31/2014 at 13:00 • Filed to: fantasywrc, rally

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After yet another too-long wait we're back in action and back in Europe for the second gravel rally of the season, and if the opening gravel event in Mexico is any indicator it should be a good one. While the rally ultimately became yet another Ogier runaway more than half the WRC field was in the top three at one point or another, we saw the best ever stage finish of a R5 spec car, and Meeke and Kubica both demonstrated that they have the speed to battle at the front but haven't yet fully figured out how to keep it on the road.

Now, as for Portugal, our own Chris Duplessis could probably describe it better than I, as he competed in the rally two years ago (photo above), but I'll do my best. The roads are mostly fast and flowing with dropoffs, sections that are barely wider than the car, big jumps, big crowds, and very little margin for error. Even Loeb was !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! just two years back. The loose gravel surface makes being among the first on the road, known as the "road sweeping cars" a significant detriment, though cars further back could well be slowed by dust if it's dry and windless. The one driver who seems to have it truly figured out is Sebastien Ogier, who will be going for his fourth straight win. Other drivers to watch include Mikko Hirvonen who has never finished outside the top 5 in Portugal, Dani Sordo who finished third three straight times in his Citroen (though he hasn't scored a point here since), and Mads Ostberg who got his first and only WRC win here.

As a side note, Canada's own "Crazy Leo" Urlichich will be making his WRC debut here, driving a Fiesta R2 (2WD, sequential gearbox, about 170 hp) in the DMack Cup. A couple weeks ago Leo ran his first ever European rally, competing in a national event in Spain, and was the second fastest R2 going into the final stage. Unfortunately he retired on stage but his pace over the weekend was impressive, especially for someone who had never rallied a FWD car prior to this year.

And with that it's time to make your predictions as to who will make it through Rally Portugal unscathed. If you've forgotten the rules or are new to Fantasy WRC (WELCOME!) be sure to read them all !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! Below are the WRC competitors entered for Rally Portugal. For the full entry list (WRC2 drivers, etc. Remember, you can pick any driver on the entry list ) !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! And, as always, the !!!error: Indecipherable SUB-paragraph formatting!!! are available for you numerophiles.

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VOLKSWAGEN MOTORSPORT
•Sebastien Ogier - Avg points last 10 races: 20.8 / Avg points Portugal: 18.8
•Jari-Matti Latvala - Avg points last 10 races: 13.7 / Avg points Portugal: 5.7

CITROEN TOTAL ABU DHABI WRT
•Kris Meeke - Avg points last 10 races: 3.8 / Avg points Portugal: N/A
•Mads Østberg - Avg points last 10 races: 8.4 / Avg points Portugal: 7.2

M-SPORT WRT
•Mikko Hirvonen - Avg points last 10 races: 8.1 / Avg points Portugal: 14.0
•Elfyn Evans - Avg points last 4 races: 7.0 / Avg points Portugal: N/A

HYUNDAI MOTORSPORT
•Thierry Neuville - Avg points last 10 races: 12.6 / Avg points Portugal: 2.0
•Chris Atkinson - Avg points last 10 races: 5.2 / Avg points Portugal: 0.0

SINGLE CAR TEAMS AND INDEPENDENTS
•Andreas Mikkelsen (VW) - Avg points last 10 races: 6.1 / Avg points Portugal: 4.5
•Robert Kubica (FORD) - Avg points last 4 races: 0.0 / Avg points Portugal: N/A
•Ott Tanak (FORD) - Avg points last 1 races: 4.3 / Avg points Portugal: 0.0
•Khalid Al Qassimi (CITROEN) - Avg points last 10 races: 0.5 / Avg points Portugal: 2.0
•Dani Sordo (HYUNDAI) - Avg points last 10 races: 9.1 / Avg points Portugal: 9.0
•Martin Prokop (FORD) - Avg points last 10 races: 5.2 / Avg points Portugal: 8.0
•Henning Solberg (FORD) - Avg points last 10 races: 5.5 / Avg points Portugal: 3.0

POINT-SCORING WRC2 DRIVERS
•Jari Ketomaa - Avg points last 10 races: 1.6

ddavidn > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 13:08

1

1. Ogier.

2. Hirvonen

3. Neuville

4. Sordo

5. Mikkelsen

Power: Ogier.

Arch Duke Maxyenko, Shit Talk Extraordinaire > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 13:10

1

1. Ogier.

2. Hirvonen

3. Østberg

4. Sordo

5. Kubica

Power: Ogier.

McNewbie1 > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 15:34

0

Don't forget the absolute havoc the weather plays in Portugal. Down pouring there now.This is a race where someone like Sordo or Prokop could definitely land a top 3.

I must strategize and check the weather before I make my picks.

Hermann > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 15:36

1

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Østberg

4. Mikkelsen

5. Sordo

Power: Latvala

Hoccy > McNewbie1 03/31/2014 at 15:37

1

I checked earlier today and while it's pouring down now, the forecast says it's going to stop in time for the rally. Might be muddy in some places though.

Dusty Ventures > McNewbie1 03/31/2014 at 15:41

2

I was originally planning on talking about weather, but I couldn't find any really good photos or video of the 2012 flooding, and every time I tried to include it it kinda broke the flow so I just said screw it. I did find this "just barely too small for Kinja to not shrink it" photo of Yazeed stuck in the washed-away road

McNewbie1 > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 15:46

1

Yup. IIRC, Chris D had some issues due to the weather when he competed there. I could be mistaken. Hoccy said it will be muddy, but the rain will stop. I'll get my picks in by tomorrow night.

Hoccy > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 15:56

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Portugal is unpredictable. Road position might be a factor, but being first on the road might not be all that bad. It all depends on the weather. Love the amount of drivers here though.

1. Jari Matti Latvala: I have a feeling this is going to be a Latvala rally. Second on the road, which is good either way and he's as fast as Ogier.

2. Dani Sordo: He's close to home turf, never underestimate that factor. Also very good pace at FAFE.

3. Mads Østberg: Because Kris Meeke will crash.

4. Ott Tanak: Impressive speed in Sweden, in Mexico before the crash and second at the FAFE sprint. Could be a good choice here.

5. Andreas Mikkelsen: Because second Volkswagen. And since this was his first rally last year, the pace notes should be better than the first three events.

Power Stage: Jari Matti Latvala

Very difficult to choose drivers here. Putting Hirvonen, Neuville and Solberg outside my picks is hard, but I have a feeling that they won't be as quick or reliable here..

willkinton247 > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 16:00

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1.) Ogier

2.) Prokop

3.) Hirvonen

4.) Neuville

5.) Sordo

Power: Ogier

Hoccy > McNewbie1 03/31/2014 at 16:03

0

You can check the forecast here .

McNewbie1 > Hoccy 03/31/2014 at 16:05

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Oh perfect. Thanks:)

Lumpy44, Proprietor Of Fine Gif > Hoccy 03/31/2014 at 17:24

1

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Ostberg

4. Neuville

5. Prokop

Power: Ogier

WorldRallyBlog > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 18:54

1

I hate all you Fantasy Anything winners, your safe bets and calculated calculations. Eff that. And police. Safe bets are like keeping the RWD car on the brink of a drift, but not drifting, ever.

This is my hit-that-rock roll-that-car selection for Portugal. Selected the way I'd like them to finish, not the way I think they'll finish.

1. Sebastien Ogier

2. Mads Ostberg

3. Mikko Hirvonen

4. Thierry Neuville

5. Robert Kubica (I had to fight hard against putting Dani Sordo here, but I must have Kubica, I must)

Power stage: Jari-Matti Latvala

Dusty Ventures > WorldRallyBlog 03/31/2014 at 19:09

0

Really? You want Ogier to win again?

Hermann > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 19:14

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I remember this. It was chaotic. Many teams weren't even prepared for conditions this bad.

Also. I was about to start my picks with "Portugal is very unpredictable". But then again, which race isn't? That's the beauty of WRC.

WorldRallyBlog > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 19:41

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Not only that, I also want him to win 10 titles!

I would love for one of the Citroen guys to win, and I would also like for Mikko to finally do the same again. But I really like Ogier. It's hard.

Dusty Ventures > WorldRallyBlog 03/31/2014 at 19:52

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...

We can't be friends anymore

WorldRallyBlog > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 19:57

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Do you think this is easy for me? Do you?

sliding-sideways > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 20:48

1

Your final paragraph references Rally Mexico twice, instead of Rally Portugal, which leads me to two conclusions:

First: You copy and paste part of these posts, which leads me to

Second: You don't spend hours carefully crafting these posts in your workshop, with a dog sleeping by your side who only occasionally wakes up as you stoke the wood burning fireplace in the corner, which makes me

Third: Sad.

Picks:

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Ostberg

4. Kubica

5. Sordo

Clarkson Stage: Latvala

Dusty Ventures > sliding-sideways 03/31/2014 at 20:58

2

First: I don't know what you're talking about, the final paragraph most definitely says Portugal. Though if I were to copy/paste something it would definitely be the final paragraph, since aside from the entry list link it never really needs to change. But I didn't.

Second. I spend hours carefully crafting the spreadsheets in the living room of a funeral home ("funeral home living room," oxymoron?), because data is all that really matters. Then I had the computer over to my dog and let him write the actual preview, because it doesn't really matter. All the rallies are unpredictable, Ogier's always the favorite, and road sweeping and dust are always bad. I just need to let him bang away at the keyboard long enough and eventually he'll have a decent preview ready.

sliding-sideways > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 21:09

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Maybe to make these rallies less predictable we need more Frenchmen named Sebastien. I say we use Kickstarter to give this guy a shot:

Dusty Ventures > sliding-sideways 03/31/2014 at 21:11

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Or fewer Frenchmen named Sebastien. I propose a Kickstarter for this guy

sliding-sideways > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 21:18

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He looks like Captain Hook. Hopefully the life of a chef is treating him better than the pirate life.

marric > Dusty Ventures 03/31/2014 at 21:56

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1- Ogier

2- Ostberg

3- Hirvonen

4- Sordo (and power)

5- Neuville

Hoccy > WorldRallyBlog 04/01/2014 at 03:06

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To be honest: That is very safe bets. Apart from Kubica.

Which means you'll get a shit score this weekend :P

Dusty Ventures > Dusty Ventures 04/01/2014 at 03:10

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Tough call as I had six drivers I wanted on my roster, choosing which four to use as my bottom three was tough.

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Sordo

4. Ostberg

5. Prokop

Power: Ogier

WorldRallyBlog > Hoccy 04/01/2014 at 06:11

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I know. Even if I change it completely, I'd still get a shit score. Must be luck.

Marzobomber > Dusty Ventures 04/01/2014 at 11:59

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1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Meeke

4. Mikkelsen

5. Neuville

P. Ogier

nobody > Dusty Ventures 04/01/2014 at 12:52

1

Ogier

Mads

Hirvonen

Tanak

Neuville

Power: Kubica

ChrisDuplessis > Dusty Ventures 04/01/2014 at 15:56

2

The weather had a roll in canceling some stages, but it was a dry stage when I did this.. Combination of still learning how to write my own notes and trying to push to the next level.

SO

DS

MO

MP

EE

Power MH

antmicmkii > Dusty Ventures 04/01/2014 at 16:12

1

Hoping the new name brings new fortunes.
1. Ogier, hate to do it but can't reasonably say I don't think he'll win
2. Hirvonen
3. Ostberg
4. Neuville
5. Sordo
P. Ostberg, don't know why though

Dusty Ventures > ChrisDuplessis 04/01/2014 at 16:44

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Nice camber

Lumpy44, Proprietor Of Fine Gif > Lumpy44, Proprietor Of Fine Gif 04/01/2014 at 17:15

0

Put this in a reply, whoops! You still get it Dusty?

JApexing > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 08:49

1

1:Ogier

2:Hirvonen

3:Mikkelsen

4:Ostberg

5:Neuville

Power:Ogier

WorldRally17 > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 10:07

2

1. Sebastien Ogier - Latvala might be fast, but you just can't argue with Ogier's record.

2. Mads Ostberg - He showed a few years ago (I think Argentina) that he knows how to handle unpredictable weather.

3. Thierry Neuville - I think Mexico showed he's finally figuring the car out.

4. Andreas Mikkelsen - Just because haha.

5. Ott Tanak - I struggled between Tanak and Hirvonen, but Hirvonen has not been terribly consistent this year.

Power: Latvala

You can tell a Finn but you can't tell him much > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 11:17

1

1. Ogier
2. Hirvonen
3. Ostberg
4. Sordo
5. Prokop

PS. Latvala

McNewbie1 > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 12:05

1

1) Ogier

2) Ost

3)Sordo

4)Neuville

5) Prokop

Power:Ogier

CampingElement > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 12:44

1

Sorry I'm late!

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Østberg

4. Sordo

5. Mikkelsen

P: Latvala

Dusty Ventures > WorldRally17 04/02/2014 at 13:06

0

Hirvonen's been consistent, his alternator on the other hand...

Fred (FreddsterExprs) > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 13:45

1

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Sordo

4. Östberg

5. Henning Solberg

Power: Ogier

Raphael Orlove > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 15:31

5

1. There can only be one man at the top of the podium this weekend, and that's thirteenth-dimensional space-salamander that we perceive in a flattened four-dimensional form as Jari-Matti Latvala. From his vantage point on a cosmic string, he perceives all space and time as one. There is no progression, the entire universe (and perhaps others) have already collapsed into him. Our world, as far as he understands, is an illusion. Somehow, he has not yet fully comprehended our understanding of spacetime, and he repeatedly hits rock that, to him, are one with the most outermost galaxies we have ever recorded.

2. Hirvonen. ::shrugs::

3. Ostberg. I was going to say Meeke, but then I realized I fully expect him to take off on a particularly steep crest and enter low-earth orbit, possibly returning to earth in time for Rally Poland.

4. Neuville. Clearly, Hyundai has been sandbagging this season and are about to unleash a VW-like domination of top-level rallying. /s

5. Kubica, who will be physically willed up the standings by the crowds, boosting him by at least 17 horsepower.

Power: Mikkelsen, who will have some kind of incident on day two and then feel like he has to make up for something.

Dusty Ventures > Raphael Orlove 04/02/2014 at 16:19

1

Even when they're wrong your picks are the best

Bob Loblaw Made Me Make a Phoney Phone Call to Edward Rooney > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 17:57

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1. ogier

2. hirvonen

3. sordo

4. neuville

5. mikkelsen

power: ogier

AlexKihurani > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 19:04

1

1. Ogier

2. Kubica

3. Ostberg

4. Evans

5. Neuville

6. Tanak

PS: Ogier

G17 > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 20:48

0

G17 > Dusty Ventures 04/02/2014 at 21:33

1

1. Ogier
2. Ostberg
3. Hirvonen
4. Neuville
5. Mikkelson
P. Latvala

*had issues with kinja

formulaphoto > Dusty Ventures 04/03/2014 at 12:58

0

Nearly forgot to get my picks in! Just arrived in Faro.

1. Ogier

2. Hirvonen

3. Ostberg

4. Tanak

5. Neuville

Power: latvala

WorldRally17 > Dusty Ventures 04/07/2014 at 10:38

1

Well look at me get proved wrong! I like Hirvonen so despite it not helping my points I'm glad he did well. It seems like he's finally back to his old consistent self.