The Porsche Macan: Porsche’s new goldmine, and the Cayenne’s ticket to a rebirth.

"Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge)" (thejonnyedge)
02/24/2014 at 06:56 • Filed to: PORSCHE, MACAN, CAYENNE. SUVs

Porsche CEO Matthias Mueller says that the luxury sports car manufacturer will exceed its 200,000 deliveries a year target three whole years earlier than anticipated, purely because the demand for the Porsche Macan will be so high. The Macan is without a doubt going to become Porsche's most popular model by next year, so what could lie in store for Porsche's current best seller, the Cayenne?

As it stands, the Macan will be competing with other smaller luxury SUVs on the market from BMW, Mercedes and Range Rover. The customers in this sector won't be struggling for choice here, but the addition of Porsche into the equation of small luxury SUV sales gives buyers in the segment something new to think about. It is sleeker and unquestionably sportier than its rivals, and features like the one-piece hood giving that sleek and clean front end, and the sloping roof line evocative of the brand's coupes also make its rivals like the BMW X3 look incredibly boxy and outdated. The Macan will without a doubt be the new leader in this segment. I'd take it even further than this though and predict something much, much more interesting.

Currently, Porsche's most popular model is overly muscly but very popular Cayenne. This large SUV, long the choice of footballers and wealthy city dwellers, has made more sales for Porsche than any other model, but it is very big, very showy and very expensive. Let's face it; Cayenne owners don't get much kudos from us drivers on the road, and while normally the buyers of the Cayenne don't care too much about what we think, the Macan is going to look like an extremely tempting package to them, it's around 25% cheaper and it is without a doubt cooler than the Cayenne. Why you ask? Because it isn't trying as hard as the Cayenne to get your attention, it's more laid back about what it actually is. So that prediction I talked about? The Cayenne is going to slowly die, and the Macan will take its place.

If you're a Cayenne owner you shouldn't be too sad! You can still enjoy your Cayenne if you love it so much, but I'm afraid it's going to be a bit different to what you've had before, because the next generation of Cayenne is going to be reborn and it's going to be bigger, bolder, and musclier than ever before. It's going to be in a fight, a super heavyweight contest between itself and the upcoming Lamborghini Urus SUV, and the big date for that fight? 2017. To prepare for this bout the Cayenne has to do some training. It needs more power for a start. Lamborghini boast that the Urus will pack around 600bhp into its outrageous looking body, while the top spec Cayenne is currently making 550bhp, and this figure has been creeping up and up over time in the higher-end models. I like to think this is because there is no way on earth Porsche will let its top spec Cayenne get eaten alive by the monstrous Urus come 2017. Porsche will fight Lamborghini on this front make no doubt about it. Just like the war between the 911 and new Huracan will develop, this will too.

If my predictions come true, then this leaves us in 2017 with the Macan as the most popular SUV on the market, eclipsing that of BMW, Audi, Mercedes and Range Rover, and Porsche sales shooting up comfortably on a yearly basis. The Macan will sell to those people who want a classy SUV but still want to keep some sporting pedigree in the vehicle they drive, and the other manufacturers will have to up their game to keep up with it. Macan sales will also be reinforced slightly by those fanatical Porsche lovers who want both a 911, Cayman, or even a Boxster and another member of the Porsche family in the garage for their slightly different travel arrangements. Although the argument could be made that they may choose a Panamera over a Macan, I really feel that it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things because Porsche will still get the sale from those fervent supporters. And that 200,000 deliveries a year figure? It's going to go up and up and up.

DISCUSSION (8)

NG22 > Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge)
02/20/2014 at 22:00

You're certainly correct that the Cayenne will move upmarket. But I feel like as Macan sales increase, the Cayenne will become more exclusive. This will be counteracted by the higher profit margin. The reason why Porsche builds GTS, Turbo, and Turbo S models of the Cayenne is because it understands that for some people, nothing but the most expensive will do. And for those people, the Cayenne will become more desirable as it becomes more expensive. It is an opportunity to differentiate oneself from the soon-to-be-common Macan. It's kind of like Evoque/Range Rover Sport vs Range Rover question. Some just want what is most expensive. It's the reason why S600 and S65 AMG models still find homes. It is the reason why the Maserati Quattroporte now costs over $100,000. Maserati said customer research found there were some buyers who refused to buy a car which started under six figures. Crazy...

Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge) > NG22
02/21/2014 at 06:23

It truly is a worrying thought to think that some people aren't even considering a car unless it is worth a certain amount of money. I completely agree with you, and the way that the new Range Rover has shot up in price over the years in particularly funny, as when it started off it wasn't even that highly thought of. How times change!

Maserati... What a big year this is for them. I think all petrol (and now diesel) heads are hoping the new Ghibli sells well because it needs to for the future of this wonderful brand. For most people in this time of economic uncertainty, I think the Ghibli will be car chosen. So, this gives us the Macan/Cayenne situation we've been alluding to. Does the Quattroporte become an almost Maybach-esque limousine more and more over time?

Wouldn't it be great if we're both right about where we see the Cayenne going! I guess we'll have to sit around and wait and see if this goes the way we think it will. I'm excited.

NG22 > Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge)
02/21/2014 at 08:31

Well, wealthy people are odd. And I think it demonstrates that they want ways of proclaiming their wealth without buying a supercar.

I love the Range Rover, but it's so expensive now, and depreciation is still pretty catastrophic. It still looks good now, but a few years down the pike, when you can get a Maserati SUV, the new Cayenne, Mercedes's replacement to the G-Wagon, Audi's Q8, and BMW's X7, not to mention the wealthy buying Bentley and Lamborghini SUVs (and Rolls-Royce looking at business plans for a potential SUV of their own), will the Range Rover really look so desirable? Right now they only have two real competitors—the G-Wagen, which is really old (but very cool), and higher trims of the Cayenne.

I love Maserati, and hope that when they reach their sales goals, they can work on a few emotional models. Most prominent, people say a new GranSport is in the works, which will use the carbon platform of the Alfa 4C, but stretch it and put a V6 in it. As a result, the new GranTurismo is meant to go upmarket a bit. Finally, word is Maserati is considering a Ghibli coupe, since the Ghibli used to be a coupe. In the next decade, we need not worry about if Maserati will go into the superluxury segment. They want sales, and so they've gone downmarket. There aren't many customers looking for $400,000 sedans. Plus, most crucially, Ferrari will always be more expensive and exclusive than Maserati. The upshot for Maserati is they can produce any bodystyles of cars they want.

Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge) > NG22
02/21/2014 at 16:50

I love this post NG. Fantastic reading, so many well made points. I wish more people were here to read it!

NG22 > Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge)
02/21/2014 at 17:03

Well thank you. It's the story of my life on Kinja. I'm grayed out in most posts and few people ever see my responses. I've been reading Jalopnik for years, but I only set up a Kinja account several months ago. The best of luck with your Jonny Edge blog!

Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge) > NG22
02/21/2014 at 20:17

I follow you now so hopefully i'll be able to see you at least! And thank you very much, I think I need all the help I can get! I've been lucky enough to feature on a car website recently as a guest and it seems like I might get to stay there, which is cool!

NG22 > Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge)
02/22/2014 at 08:50

That is really cool. Good for you. I love all this stuff—the speculation, the future plans. It's a lot of fun to consider.

Flat Six > Jonny Edge (@thejonnyedge)
02/24/2014 at 08:37

Tax incentives for SUV's over 6000 lbs GVW are being phased out so I think that might actually free the Cayenne to go on a diet and lose quite a bit of weight.