Looking for a winner in America's Pony Car War

"DCCARGEEK" (dccargeek)
12/03/2013 at 13:39 • Filed to: 2015 Mustang, Pony Car

As we prepare for the latest pony car from Ford, the 2015 Mustang, I wanted to look back at the last few years of pony car sales to see where Dearborn stood in comparison to it’s crosstown rivals, Camaro and Challenger.

The definition of pony car is something I struggled with during this little exercise. ( I’m in the hospital, killing time, and waiting for my second baby to arrive! )

Is the Hyundai Genesis Coupe a pony car? The Scion FR-S? What makes a pony car a pony car? Is it a performance coupe and heritage or just any performance coupe?

For this example I kept it simple: performance, American and coupe.

While the current generation Challenger isn’t exactly a small car , as many would argue is a requirement of pony cars, for the majority of Americans, it is a pony car based on its heritage and is often cross-shopped by those in the market for a Mustang or Camaro.

Camaro Sales 2010-2013:

Challenger Sales 2010-2013:

Mustang Sales 2010-2013:

The next two graph helps to visualize month-to-month changes between various models over a period of a year.

The two charts below (first being 2010 and the second 2013) show that while Challenger trails Camaro and Mustang in market share (using my rough idea of 'pony car'), the chubby Chrysler coupe has improved in the last three years.

Now for the big question: what does the new Mustang mean for Chevy and Chrysler in the terms of pony cars? Will they look to offer four cylinder engines? Will Chrysler’s pig-of-a-coupe go on a diet and will that kill the one form factor that separates it from its rivals, a back seat made for people with legs? Will Chevy go all-in on Code 130R and move Camaro upscale (crazy idea I know)?

What impact do you think the new Mustang will have on the pony car market? Also, is the Mustang still a pony car? Should we redefine pony car to embrace foreign brands? Will a global market mean lower unit prices?

Note: Apologize for the crappy quality of these Microsoft graphs and the lack of fun lead image. My wife keeps interrupting me with screams of pain.

DISCUSSION (23)

Goshen, formerly Darkcode > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 13:50

It's already known that the next generation Camaro and the Challenger/Barracuda are going to be way lighter than their current versions and have more complete ranges, with 4 ,6 and 8 cylinder options. It's also rumoured that retro styling is going down the toilet.

Tom McParland > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 13:51

You are one hard-core content maker...with the missus in labor. I think Chevy will look to turbo 4 power for the next gen Camaro, I believe I read somewhere that that generation will be on a lighter platform. As for Mopar, haven't we been hearing about a Barracuda replacement for the Challenger for like...forever? I honestly don't think the muscle car market is a priority for Chrysler. The Dart is a nice car but isn't selling well, they are behind on the Cherokee launch and they don't have a mid-size sedan that can really compete with the Japanese and Koreans. They are falling behind in 3 huge markets, RWD V8 coupe is low on the totem pole.

For Sweden > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 13:51

If the 3-series is still a compact, the Mustang/Camaro/Challenger is still a pony car.

Goshen, formerly Darkcode > Tom McParland
12/03/2013 at 13:56

The next gen Camaro is said to be based off the Cadillac ATS platform.

offroadkarter > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 13:56

The gen coupe and FR-S are not, and will never be, pony cars. The FR-S isn't even in the same class as any of those cars.

Tom McParland > Goshen, formerly Darkcode
12/03/2013 at 13:59

Yes that is it! So yeah even more reason to have the turbo 4 option.

DCCARGEEK > Goshen, formerly Darkcode
12/03/2013 at 14:02

Is the 6 a for sure thing?

DCCARGEEK > offroadkarter
12/03/2013 at 14:04

What class is it in and is that class determined? Power-to-weight, JDM vs USA, etc?

offroadkarter > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:06

JDM vs USA is a start. The point of the pony car was a small package with a big V8. I know they offered small engines, but nobody lusted after an inline 6 or 4cyl mustang, they bought one of those because they couldn't afford the good one.

DCCARGEEK > Tom McParland
12/03/2013 at 14:22

Thanks, Tom. The wife is yelling at me to give her more attention. Then telling me to leave her alone.

Tom McParland > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:24

Unrelated...we should totally try to get #mustangmiracle trending.

MooseKnuckles > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:31

Where are your charts for the charts? Some chart organization would be nice.

DCCARGEEK > offroadkarter
12/03/2013 at 14:31

So a Hyundai Genesis Coupe 5.0 V8 (I know they don't build one but if they did) wouldn't be a pony car, but a Mustang 5.0 V8 would be?

DCCARGEEK > MooseKnuckles
12/03/2013 at 14:32

Who made these charts? Find them, and fire them.

MooseKnuckles > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:35

I see the 6th gen Camaro going 3050lbs in base form. Once you loose the rear doors and luxury shit (dynamat especially) on the Alpha/ATS, weight should come down a lot.

2.5 N/A @ 200hp

2.0T @ 275hp

3.6 V6 @ 330hp

6.2 LT1 @ 450hp or 3.6TT @ 430hp

3.2TT @ 520hp - this is rumoured for the ATS-V. If it isnt real, replace with tuned 3.6TT or LT1

Super and/or turbo and/or twin and/or twin combo LT1 @ 600hp

Goshen, formerly Darkcode > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:37

I personally doubt the V6s will be skipped.

highmodulus > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:39

Boss 302 Laguna Seca and Camaro ZL1 in a tie- both are fantastic cars.

desertdog5051 > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:44

Wikipedia describes pony car as:

Pony car is an American class of automobile launched and inspired by the Ford Mustang in 1964. [1] [2] The term describes an affordable, compact, highly styled car with a sporty or performance-oriented image. [3] [4]

offroadkarter > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 14:50

yes

JR1 > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 15:23

First off congratulations on the new kid! And personally I think for the short period of time the mustang is the new kid on the block it will outsell its rivals in the 4 and 6 cylinder class, the 8 cylinder though is usually full of the hardcore enthusiasts who are brand loyal so I think those sales will stay similar through the model transition.

TheD0k_2many toys 2little time > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 17:08

If its not a v8 in a pony car it is shit.

Jay Lauer > DCCARGEEK
12/03/2013 at 22:22

I think solely based on the fact that the Challenger and Camaro are now the size of military tanks, the Mustang is the pony car of choice.

That being said, the Mustang is still getting bigger.

Eventually, a Hunger Games needs to ensue between all three of them, cutting them all down to size and leaving us with proper small, nimble, lightweight sports cars again.

GRawesome > DCCARGEEK
12/04/2013 at 20:30

I think we, the enthusiasts, are the clear winners in the pony car wars.

You can count me as one of those data points, as a Sept 2012 Challenger buyer (with a V8 of course).