We have your manual transmissions, and we're going to keep them

"Fl1ngstam" (Fl1ngstam) 11/05/2013 at 08:32 • Filed to: None

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Oh no, I imagine you saying to yourself inside your head. Another discussion about Auto/Manual/Dual-Clutch transmissions to stir up the same muddy water as before and endeavour to provoke some kind of response from the enthusiast herd.

Well, actually, it's a little more simple than that. I'm going to stick to the facts, ma'am. Data-driven. No hysteria. No emotion (well, maybe I'll include some at the end, just for you).

We have heard about the death of the manual transmission car. It's going to happen any day now, apparently. Emissions + in-car entertainment/connectivity + heavy traffic + faster shift times + flappy paddles + rampant millenialism , blah blah blah. The truth is, it still exists, and will continue for some time to come. However, it may not be readily available to all people in all regions, and your favoured automobile may not feature it.

Let's compare the US to the UK, just because we can, and we want to. Well, I want to, you can go write your own blog.

In the US, sales of new cars with manual transmissions is currently hovering at about 4%. So, despite all the enthusiastic enthusiasm amongst enthusiasts, only a small number of people actually laid down their own money for an M/T car. Of that 4%, some will be base-model, no-frills economy cars, so the number of enthusiasts with the financial means and inclination to go out and buy an M/T sports model gets to be pretty insignificant. The manufacturers will only make cars they can sell, so the likely profits in such small numbers of variants look a little shaky. What is needed for those manufacturers is people in other countries who do want M/T cars to fund the development. Also, buy more new M/T cars, people of America.

That's where Europe comes in to save the day (or not, if you really don't want manual transmission, I'm not here to judge). In the UK over the last 10 years or do, there has been a noticeable effect from the introduction of Dual Clutch Transmissions and improved efficiencies and usability of various automatics. This has meant a drop in sales of manual transmissions from 82% to 75%. Yes, that's right. 75%. That's a lot of cars, and that's just one country within the European continent. Europeans still love their manual cars, and this habit is here to stay. It may be arrogance, stubbornness to adopt what is effectively a labour-saving device, or outdated belief that they can drive more efficiently rowing their own gears, but across the continent (and beyond, in Russia, for example) M/T is AOK. It's so ubiquitous as to not even be a theft deterrent, unlike in the US.

Hooray for Europe!!!! (there's your emotional content, right there)

Source of US data: Edmunds.com

Source of UK data: SMMT (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders)

Hermann > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 08:47

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I drove my first Auto when I was 19, I didn't even know how to do it:
- Ok. I'm in P, what now?
- Put it in D and drive.
- What do you mean? Just put it in D and drive? *put the lever in D*
- Ok. Now accelerate.
- Just that? No extra controls no nothing?
- Nope, just release the brake and let it go.
*car jumps and I almost drive into a stop sign*

And on that day I understood two things:
1) Why people love Auto trannies, because it's damn easy and simple.
2) Why so many people with A/T drive into walls or over other cars.

Mikeado > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 08:57

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Exactly. What's more, even if the manual transmission does eventually leave mainstream cars altogether, which will probably take another 15-20 years, there will still be smaller-time specialist car makers that provide them. The uprising of (increasingly-brilliant) two-pedalled gearboxes does not actually spell the end of manualism. That's like saying the sky is falling.

duurtlang > Hermann 11/05/2013 at 08:57

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I had a similar experience, although I knew how it worked in theory. Very awkward and uncomfortable, until I hit a traffic jam with stop and go traffic which would've required fiddling with the clutch in first gear in a car with a manual. The automatic was pleasant in the traffic jam, I'll give it that. Anything over 10 kmh and I'd prefer a manual.

duurtlang > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 08:59

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From 82% to 75% in a decade? I'll believe the 75%, but the 82% seems low to me. There were no dual clutch gearboxes in regular cars a decade ago.

Also, a reason to pick the manual is cost. When the take rate of a manual is high the automatic will be significantly more expensive. $3000 more expensive in many cases. That's simply not worth it to many if not most people who know how to drive.

Hermann > duurtlang 11/05/2013 at 09:00

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Exactly.

I think that's where that supposed magical Bosch eClutch that is auto from N->1 but the rest is manual should be something we may accept. Especially on a DD.

Fl1ngstam > duurtlang 11/05/2013 at 09:14

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82% might seem low (and I too expected it to be more than this), but this is from the SMMT figures:

"In 2004, for example, only 17.6 per cent of the 2.55 million new cars that were bought in the UK were fitted with an automatic gearbox."

Source: http://www.autocar.co.uk/blogs/industry…

duurtlang > Mikeado 11/05/2013 at 09:15

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You only need to look at the US. That country has been almost completely auto-only for many decades. Yet you still have enthusiasts who opt for a manual. The manual won't die that soon.

I do wonder what happens to the sales numbers of cars like the 208 GTI versus the hothatch Clio, both with only one transmission available. I would personally automatically exclude the auto-only Clio from my shortlist due to the gearbox, but that's just me. How do the people actually buying in this segment see this?

Brewman15 > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 09:27

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So here's a question for you. How do you buy cars in the UK? Do you typically pick one off of a dealer lot or do you order one through a dealership with the exact specs you want?

In the good ol' US of A the vast majority of people just pick a car off the dealer lot that most closely matches the one they want. It usually means you have to compromise on some of the options to get the highly desired ones. While that's great to be able to drive the new car home the day you buy it, it's annoying that the cars on the lot are ordered by the dealer based on what the dealer thinks will sell.

I don't really have any proof, but my theory is a large number of people compromise on manual transmissions due to other more desired options or just ability to easily get a manual trans car. I think if dealers were required to have both options on the lot, manual sales would be much higher.

Party-vi > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 09:32

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Europeans love manuals for the same reason farmers love the smell of shit; they've been around it so much they can't help themselves.

After WWII the American economy was booming and the auto manufacturers here convinced car buyers that an automatic transmission was a luxury item - by having an automatic transmission-equipped vehicle you told everyone else on your street that you made enough money to afford a car that shifts itself.

Fl1ngstam > Brewman15 11/05/2013 at 09:36

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Good point. Dealer lots in the UK are far far smaller. Most people order a car and wait for it. A vehicle with the right spec may be in stock with the manufacturer/distributer/dealer network somewhere else in the country, or you may get allocated a car that's not been built yet. For premium brands, people expect to select exactly what they want, including options and colour, and will wait months for the car to be built to order.The dealer stock is often limited to just demonstrators and showroom models.

Mikeado > duurtlang 11/05/2013 at 09:36

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It's hard to work out how an entire market segment thinks, but certainly a hot hatch is incomplete without a clutch pedal. I actually believe this is more true with hot hatches than with sports cars, because they're all about simple thrills.

One interesting thing about this Atlantic divide is that BMW offers the M5 with a manual option in the US, but not here. So it's definitely the enthusiast's option over there rather than the default choice that it is here.

duurtlang > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 09:45

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It's similar on the other side of the channel, at least here in the Netherlands it is. Dealers have showrooms with cars of each model and a few newish cars on their lot. Most people use these for tests, and then order specifically what they want. When you buy a new computer/matrass/closet/phone/whatever, do you get the one dozens of others have been playing with or do you try a showroom model and then buy an actually new and unused one? Seems logical to me.

duurtlang > Mikeado 11/05/2013 at 09:49

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You're absolutely right about the 'luxury' aspect.

About the hot hatches; sales numbers could be checked. I just don't have the numbers available.

Brewman15 > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 09:53

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I desperately wish the US followed this method. The stupid mega-dealer around here always touts the number of cars on the lot...not the quality of the dealership, sales experience, courteousness, etc... It's just the fact that you can select from hundreds of cars that someone else optioned.

I wouldn't care that much except most of the cash back and financing offers require the customer to purchase a car from dealer stock rather than order. So, if you order a car you don't qualify for any of the available incentives and have to pay significantly more for it! Land of the free indeed. :)

Casper > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 10:05

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One aspect that everyone skips is that most people who are enthusiasts and really want a pure driver's car.... don't buy new cars. There are very few good new cars around. This leads the enthusiasts to purchase used good drivers cars from back in the day.

I have a feeling if you look at sales of automatic vs manual in real drivers cars that are new, the ratio would be very different. Remember, 90%+ of what is sold every year are beige appliance mobiles to people who don't know how to drive, let alone care about what they drive.

Fl1ngstam > Brewman15 11/05/2013 at 10:19

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That sucks, bro.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > duurtlang 11/05/2013 at 10:20

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In the US, it's getting to the point that the manual transmission is no longer the "standard" equipment on many cars. If a manual is offered at all, it's often a no-cost option. The dual-clutch systems still command a premium, but not so on slushboxes in many cases.

Fl1ngstam > Casper 11/05/2013 at 10:20

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Absolutely. So, the enthusiasts who buy used need more enthusiasts to buy new so they in turn can have what they want a few years down the line. Without the people buying new cars that we all want, the rest of us will be worse off.

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > Mikeado 11/05/2013 at 10:23

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As a petrolhead, I just like options when it comes to thinking about the cars I'll own in the future. In North America, if I want to continue to drive cars with a manual transmission, those options are shrinking rapidly.

Fl1ngstam > Party-vi 11/05/2013 at 10:24

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Also, the cost of fuel has historically been cheaper in the US. A luxury labour-saving device which used more fuel was not so attractive to penny-pinching proles whose post-war boom was not as lucrative (and in some cases, merely a recovery from the devastating effects of that war).

Fl1ngstam > Mikeado 11/05/2013 at 10:26

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I agree about hot hatches. Remember the outcry when Renault announced that the Renaultsport Clio 200 turbo would be DCT-only? Having said that, sales of DSG-equipped Golf GTis have been increasing, so even this last bastion of clutchful endeavours is diminishing.

Matt@ShiftCarBlog > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 10:27

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I bought a manual just this past weekend!

Fl1ngstam > Matt@ShiftCarBlog 11/05/2013 at 10:29

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Hooray! FRSure, we salute you! Good job!

Carl (@stuffcarlsays) > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 10:37

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Bought two brand new stick-shift cars over the last year. 2013 Mini Cooper and a 2013 Jetta 2.5SE. I would encourage anyone in the market to do the same.

Fl1ngstam > Carl (@stuffcarlsays) 11/05/2013 at 10:40

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You go, Carl! Welcome to the 4% club!

davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com > duurtlang 11/05/2013 at 10:40

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Thankfully I don't have to drive in stop & go traffic on a regular basis, but when I do, I actually make a game of it: I give myself some space and try to see how far I can go without touching the brakes. Completely letting off the gas in 1st and letting it idle along is good fun, too.

Casper > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 10:45

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That's why the popularity of manual transmission swaps has skyrocketed as well as restomods. For instance in my case, I decided to just spend $20,000 to $30,000 building a classic sports car the way I wanted rather than buy a new car I didn't like. The other path is like that Subaru SVX owners do who swap to manuals. Pretty much anything can be swapped to manual, some just take more effort than others.

Same concepts, just one is more extreme than the other.

Victorious Secret > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 11:03

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Keep them, I no longer care to have them.

Disregarding the car because it doesn't have the 3rd pedal is a silly idea in my mind.

I care not what pedals a car has, that isn't the final equation in how enjoyable a car is.

That and the only car I want in manual is the one pictured, and that isn't happening any time soon.

Fl1ngstam > Victorious Secret 11/05/2013 at 11:09

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Good points. Some cars are suited to M/T, some aren't. Similarly, some useage patterns are not so compatible with clutch action (e.g. a 2-hour commute in stop-start traffic). If you want to set fast lap times, a DCT car has an advantage. If you want the experience to be more challenging, try the same in an M/T vehicle, or drive faster in your DCT. Simple. Sort of.

Variety is key to the future of motoring. An M/T Diesel station wagon in brown may be the optimumised average Jalop choice, but in reality, most of us would like only some or none of the components.

Victorious Secret > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 11:12

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For a DD I only want the wagon and diesel parts.

I have little honest desire to go back to a manual for heavy traffic driving. Not

Fl1ngstam > Victorious Secret 11/05/2013 at 11:19

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Yup, I agree. Diesel and auto work well together. Something that isn't brown will be easier to sell. Wagons are cool. Fortunately, my short cross-country commute doesn't restrict me at all, so I can drive whatever my budget allows (current budget £0).

webmonkees > Fl1ngstam 11/05/2013 at 17:06

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Yes my dad ordered about every (US built) new car from the factory. Former car dealership owner.

Even though it was brand new and an advance in about every aspect, I recall he was upset that Ford had dropped the woodgrain stripe option on the Taurus wagon unlike his prior LTD.

Svend > Brewman15 11/06/2013 at 12:31

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The U.S. dealerships from what I see get a load of cars in that they want to push or have been told to order for their lot to boost company figures. The U.K. is pretty much test drive a car, then sit down and see where you'd want to change or improve on it based on your test drive and then order it, though if you know when the dealership is replacing it's inventory you can usually big up a great bargain on an ex-demostrator.

The World of Vee > Victorious Secret 11/12/2013 at 18:56

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ERRONEOUS! ERRONEOUS ON ALL ACCOUNTS!