Is now the time to buy?

"Bird" (Bird) 10/02/2013 at 18:55 • Filed to: Tesla Stock

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I see no reason the fire will cause any lasting damage to their reputation. It was a small accident that wouldn't even get press if it weren't for Fisker. I don't think it's any indicator of a real problem, or that there would be a recall.

Casper > Bird 10/02/2013 at 18:57

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Probably. I would say that they still have a lot of steam left. The problem is logic and facts don't drive stock prices nearly as much as whim and drama. It's always a gamble. In this case, the logic in fairly sound. I would just lock in a sell of point in case of emergency drop and a high sell point at which you would be happy with your gains... of course you are assuming the loss is just because of the fire.

JayZAyEighty thinks C4+3=C7 > Bird 10/02/2013 at 18:59

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That's the first thing I thought when reading the article. However, I still steadfastly refuse to buy into the hype that is an inflated stock price. What happened to Apple will happen to Facebook and Tesla in more drastic fashion, methinks. However, hype seems to be the driving force behind large fluctuations in stock price. By that logic, it's hard to judge. Therefore, I was of no help just now. I did tell my sister to buy it the day preceding a 5-day rally a couple of weeks ago, but that was then and tomorrow is now when it comes to the market.

Bird > Casper 10/02/2013 at 19:02

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I think that's the key, everybody else can be illogical and all 'OMG Fiery Death', but the rational move wins in this case.

vdub_nut: scooter snob > Bird 10/02/2013 at 19:02

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Buy buy buy.

Bird > JayZAyEighty thinks C4+3=C7 10/02/2013 at 19:07

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As always, it's all about when you buy and sell. I'm kicking myself because I should have bought in way before they spiked. As a technical car guy I could look at them and come to the conclusion they were making a good product. Then, living in LA, I noticed there were more Tesla's than you could swing a dead cat at, long before the stock jumped.

I wish I would have put those two things together. I would have thought, Tesla's manufacturing and engineering is sound, the wealthy trend setters are flocking to them like crazy, I should get in on this!

davedave1111 > Bird 10/02/2013 at 19:11

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Don't buy and sell shares based on news reports. Buy them to hold for a good long period - hopefully years to decades. At that point short-term fluctuations don't matter much.

If you're happy to buy the shares on that basis, then you can maybe gamble a little on whether the market is over-reacting to some piece of news to get a slightly better price, but there's not much in it. If your investment strategy is sensible, then even if you'd bought Tesla yesterday you wouldn't really be bothered by today's slight drop. The stock will do that dozens or hundreds of times before you eventually sell out.

JayZAyEighty thinks C4+3=C7 > Bird 10/02/2013 at 19:19

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While I sort of put those two together, I couldn't put two balls or two cents together to actually buy it. I kept seeing them everywhere back when the stock was ~$90, but the stock was a risky venture indeed. Whether or not the stock price can realistically continue to grow remains to be seen.

PatBateman > Bird 10/02/2013 at 19:23

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Because of my job, I cannot suggest any actions regarding investments online.

I can, however, tell you to always look at a company's technical data before you buy a stock.

Bird > davedave1111 10/02/2013 at 19:32

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Investing long term is always good advice.

I'm a sucker for a sale though. :)

TSLA > Bird 10/02/2013 at 19:43

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srsly? You should be buying it every week.

davedave1111 > Bird 10/02/2013 at 19:47

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6% off? Pfft, I don't cross the road for that :)

Seriously, though, 6% on a stock you're hoping will double or treble over the next ten to fifteen years is practically negligible.

Bird > davedave1111 10/02/2013 at 19:57

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See my reply to JayZAyEighty , I wish I would have bought in when there was an actual difference.

This was mainly posted for commentary...not real investing advice.

davedave1111 > Bird 10/02/2013 at 20:27

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If you got to invest with the benefit of hindsight, you could buy winning lottery tickets and be done with.

It's always easy to have been right for the wrong reasons, anyway. After the fact it's simple to point to the things you saw and call them signs, but it's perfectly plausible that they might have pointed to a bubble about to burst. One doesn't often run across free money: you'd have been making a risky(ish) bet that your interpretation was right, and the rewards weren't that high to compensate for the chance you were wrong, it was a bubble, and you lost all your investment.

Of course some people get rich betting their shirt on a stock like Tesla, but only in the same way that someone wins the lottery fairly often. Sensible investment means maybe having a bit of money backing your opinion on Tesla, but vast majority somewhere safe.

Mind you, if you're up for a bit of risk, don't bugger around with Tesla. Have a look at the GDP curves and work out who's next to do a China, then get your money there.

Still, we've all got one that got away. Back in about 2002, I got told by the dodgiest, drunkest South African imaginable to 'put all your money in Randgold' - just before he got arrested. Since then it's at 2500% or something...

MIATAAAA > Bird 10/02/2013 at 20:27

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Doesn't matter. There are like a billion people out there thinking (and doing) just that. It'll end up washing out.

Tesla is looking good though - probably a good investment.

davedave1111 > MIATAAAA 10/02/2013 at 20:32

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I think a lot of car people don't realise how vulnerable Tesla still is as a business. As an investment it's quite risky, because it wouldn't take a very major problem for the company to go bankrupt and the shareholders to lose all their money. Unless it was something really calamitous, Tesla would come out the other side under new ownership - but the shareholders would have nothing.

JayZAyEighty thinks C4+3=C7 > Bird 10/02/2013 at 22:25

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But, I still have to say, now is the time to buy for sure. Of course, minor incidents have caused bubbles to burst such as Apple with Apple Maps, but other times they can cause a stock to become grossly undervalued as with Best Buy and the re-coop much of the lost value if not more. So please, take my advice with a carton of salt and don't base your investments off the advice of a person too young to even open their own account. Good luck, BTW!