by "My citroen won't start" (lucasboechat)
Published 12/12/2017 at 11:48
by "My citroen won't start" (lucasboechat)
Published 12/12/2017 at 11:48
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STARS: 0
In the Alabama special election, the most recent FOX News Poll gave Democrat Doug Jones a 10 point lead over the Cowboy Pedophile. Now, could this be an encouragement to get Republicans out to vote?
Fox News is not a trusted source for anything, they are, to many, comparable to The Onion. So why would they even bother to show a Poll like that? There has to be something behind it. And here comes my second question, how closely verified are these Poll results, not just from Fox News, but all Polls? Is there a regulatory agency or standard for them?
"Milky" (jordanmielke)
12/12/2017 at 12:00, STARS: 0
They say a source? Last I heard on NPR, cowboy pedophile was ahead.
"ttyymmnn" (ttyymmnn)
12/12/2017 at 12:03, STARS: 1
Remember those polls that said that HRC had an 85% chance of winning? Yeah, polls are shit. But as to your question of whether or not the reporting is accurate, I would not be surprised at all if it’s BS propaganda.
"Ash78, voting early and often" (ash78)
12/12/2017 at 12:04, STARS: 3
The two main polls right now have exactly opposite results...I think that’s what citroen might be implying, although I doubt malfeasance here. It’s a sample size and volatility issue. Voter turnout in special elections is lucky to hit 20% (in a state with just 5 million people total), but in hotly contested ones like this, it could be double. The question is who is getting off the couch today.
"crowmolly" (crowmolly)
12/12/2017 at 12:05, STARS: 3
Fox News is not a trusted source for anything, they are, to many, comparable to The Onion. So why would they even bother to show a Poll like that?
Everyone in the news industry will fuck with polls.
EVERYONE.
Don’t think it’s just Fox news because of bias. They all do it.
If you’re going to trust anyone I’d give the nod to Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight. They do some due diligence before releasing data.
"crowmolly" (crowmolly)
12/12/2017 at 12:06, STARS: 0
Totally depends on methodology.
Are they asking via phone? That may give one answer.
Are they asking via exit polls? That may give another.
"HammerheadFistpunch" (hammerheadfistpunch)
12/12/2017 at 12:09, STARS: 0
exit poles are trash, I wouldn’t put much stock in any of them.
"Noah - Now with more boost." (antriebverliebt)
12/12/2017 at 12:10, STARS: 0
Aren’t most polls conducted by corporations that specialize in them? I’ve always been suspicious of that. Major conflict of interest issues if they lean one direction politically. It could easily be a tool, like you’re suggesting.
"Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz)" (galileo-humpkins)
12/12/2017 at 12:15, STARS: 1
Fox News is not a trusted source for anything
To most sane, rational people this is true - but in Alabama, Fox News is the only trusted source for pretty much everything.
Also, polling has been all over the damn place on this election so there’s no telling who had/has it right until it’s over.
"Ash78, voting early and often" (ash78)
12/12/2017 at 12:17, STARS: 0
Right — and are they calling college students, many of whom are already home with their parents now and might vote when they otherwise wouldn’t have bothered?
Too many questions. And weird timing on the election. This is round three since Sessions moved to the AG job. It’s exhausting.
I’m predicting Doug Jones by 5 basis points. And I won’t even be upset, since despite Moore’s good traits, his scandals (completely true or not) would get any normal person fired from their job. At some point you can’t take any more reputational damage to your self, your party, or your state.
"My citroen won't start" (lucasboechat)
12/12/2017 at 12:22, STARS: 0
But that’s the thing. I don’t care about the accuracy of the Polls, Polls are shit. But is it not a bit weird that the most popular Conservative news source gave Doug a 10 point lead?
"Bob Loblaw Made Me Make a Phoney Phone Call to Edward Rooney" (braddelaparker)
12/12/2017 at 12:25, STARS: 1
All polls have some margin of error. The polling at Fox News, for all its faults, has actually be found to be fairly sound relative to other polling based on work done by Five Thirty Eight, if I’m not mistaken. Polling, at the end of the day, is very tough and inexact even if you have the best of intentions. The best thing to do is to look at an aggregation of polls that considers the various flaws in each polling model, such as the work that Five Thirty Eight does. Poll construction and methodology is far more important than who is conducting the poll, although the two go hand in hand.
Polling is not regulated in this country and to be honest I’m not sure many people from either side of the aisle here want the government involved in the process.
"nermal" (nermal)
12/12/2017 at 12:25, STARS: 0
The only thing for certain is that the people of Alabama are gonna lose. Whoever gets elected has a 100% chance of being a swamp critter that blindly votes along party lines, regardless of what is best for the people of the state (and country).
Sad!
"Textured Soy Protein" (texturedsoyprotein)
12/12/2017 at 12:26, STARS: 2
The numbers are very different depending on if the polls were live or automated, i.e. the people being polled had to tell another person who they wanted to vote for, or if it was a more anonymous experience.
Most of the polls showing Jones ahead are live polls. Most of the polls showing Moore ahead are automated.
The thinking is that when you have a candidate who is controversial, people are less likely to tell another person they intend to vote for that candidate, even if that’s actually who they plan to vote for. There was a similar phenomenon in the polling when Trump ran.
Unfortunately the reality is that there is a long history of political candidates getting elected based on a platform of basically, acting like assholes and thus giving people who vote for them permission to be assholes. It’s gotten less common over time, but Trump and Moore have tapped back into that.
"Galileo Humpkins (aka MC Clap Yo Handz)" (galileo-humpkins)
12/12/2017 at 12:29, STARS: 0
Yeah, maybe a bit weird considering that polling numbers, especially in hotly contested elections, tend to be a total shot in the dark. But if that’s where they think, or are being told, the results are, that’s what they’ll say. It could be used as a rally cry to get more conservatives out to vote, and maybe is - but keep in mind that various news outlets will get reporting from different sources (especially this early) so there is potential for a lot of contradictory or unusual seeming poll reporting. Things will probably fall more in line as the day goes on.
"fintail" (fintail)
12/12/2017 at 12:38, STARS: 0
Announcing that data, as suspect as it is, is definitely a move to mobilize the deplorables. Plenty of them in that less than evolved not quite first world locale, too.
"crowmolly" (crowmolly)
12/12/2017 at 12:39, STARS: 0
The thinking is that when you have a candidate who is controversial, people are less likely to tell another person they intend to vote for that candidate, even if that’s actually who they plan to vote for. There was a similar phenomenon in the polling when Trump ran.
Kerry and Bush as well.
"Textured Soy Protein" (texturedsoyprotein)
12/12/2017 at 12:43, STARS: 0
It’s the “I don’t want to tell another person I plan to vote for an asshole” effect. Most of the polls with Jones in the lead are live, the ones with Moore in the lead are automated.
"e36Jeff now drives a ZHP" (e36jeff)
12/12/2017 at 12:44, STARS: 0
I read this last night, and it explains how the poll can show jones that far ahead while other polls show him behind. It’s actually quite fascinating.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-hell-is-happening-with-these-alabama-polls/
"BigBlock440" (440-4bbl)
12/12/2017 at 13:32, STARS: 0
Because the government’s the answer to everything...
"crowmolly" (crowmolly)
12/12/2017 at 14:29, STARS: 0
That’s part of it, but it also depends on the actual sample and how closely it represents the state.
If you only sample the elderly or teenagers you’ll get heavily skewed results.
"Textured Soy Protein" (texturedsoyprotein)
12/12/2017 at 14:32, STARS: 0
Yeah there are other factors too. Another big one is the automated polls can only call landlines which skews the sample. This is a better breakdown than I could hope to write from FiveThirtyEight.
"davesaddiction @ opposite-lock.com" (davesaddiction)
12/12/2017 at 14:42, STARS: 0
If it’s completely false it would be very wrong for a news organization to try to use bogus exit polls to try to drive late traffic for their “side” to vote.
Some polling outfits are for-profit companies, many are associated with news organizations, some are associated with political groups, and some attempt to be non-partisan ( http://www.pewresearch.org/about/ ), but I don’t believe there are any regulations. However, a polling organization is only as good as its results, so if one is regularly bad or biased, it most likely will fall out of favor.
Many, many pollsters got the 2016 election completely wrong. Hopefully that was a huge shock to the whole industry and got them to change some things to improve their accuracy going forward.
"E92M3" (E46M3)
12/12/2017 at 14:43, STARS: 0
You’re an asshole!
Now, I’m looking at X5 ///M’s on Carmax.