by "DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
Published 11/13/2017 at 17:42
by "DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
Published 11/13/2017 at 17:42
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STARS: 1
I was reading the story on FP, Bob Lutz and big daddy PG think that in a few decades the guberment will ban non-autonomous cars.
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I just don’t see how that would happen within a 100 years for a lot of reasons.
Cost of autonomous cars. As people have pointed out in the comments, even Uber rides are still subsides. So it’s not likely everyone will get by on autonomous Ubers anytime soon. And most people won’t be able to buy, lease, etc an autonomous car for a while.
The government giving enough of a shit to bother banning non-autonomous cars. I doubt any one in Washington really gives two shits either way about autonomous cars. So I doubt any politican would go out of their way to ban non-autonomous cars.
Not to mention the whole infrastructure thing. Not just the roads and shit, but how all the cars are going to need some kind of GPS, cell, or other signal. That shit’s not free.
If the idea of banning non-autonomous cars did get traction. $1,000 says there would be a case taken to the supreme court that would rule otherwise. Because forcing everyone to use ride sharing and autonomous cars would be a violation of privacy or something (at least in ‘Merica!)
"merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc" (merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc)
11/13/2017 at 17:48, STARS: 4
I always figured it will be the insurance companies that effectively “ban” non-autonomous cars through their rates. So people won’t be able to afford to drive non-autonomous cars.
"farscythe - makin da cawfee!" (farscythe)
11/13/2017 at 17:50, STARS: 0
yes.... if autonomous cars get to the point of good enough... you can kiss driving goodbye
and on 4....who says ride sharing.... you could still buy your own autonomous car
"WilliamsSW" (williamssw)
11/13/2017 at 17:52, STARS: 2
I’m with you. #1 is very important, because banning a cheaper method of transport discriminates against poor people. There would be an outrage from lower income people who need to get to work cheaply - which, for most, means a cheap car. You can’t just turn those people over to ride sharing companies.
Plus, I don’t think the gummint will be all that eager to throw a lot of $$ at the infrastructure needed - how would you handle all of the rural roads across the country, especially out west?
Nah, the better solution for everyone (except the autonomous car manufacturers) is to force them to co-exist with existing traffic.
The bigger threat is that someday insurers will refuse to insure people who want to drive...
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 17:52, STARS: 0
Interesting. Although I can definitely see insurance companies pushing it I don’t think they’d go that extreme. They still make a profit with practically zero autonomous cars. I think they’d rather just give a discount to people with autonomous cars.
I could be wrong though.
"Future next gen S2000 owner" (future-next-gen-s2000-owner)
11/13/2017 at 17:52, STARS: 0
This. Insurance companies are really going to have to adjust. Who will pay premiums if they aren’t at fault and their car never crashes?
"Future next gen S2000 owner" (future-next-gen-s2000-owner)
11/13/2017 at 17:55, STARS: 0
1. Costs will be dramatically lower in 20 years.
2. Insurance will dictate it as premiums become higher for driver cars.
3. Roads are already built. GPS ain’t free and I’m not sure who pays for the satellites but we seem to have found a solution between existing GPS and V2V.
4. Buy your own. People in the burbs don’t carpool now, why would they take a taxi to work everyday? Who will maintain this vast fleet of robot cars that will be needed for rush hour?
"CB" (jrcb)
11/13/2017 at 17:56, STARS: 1
I can’t see it happening personally, but I can definitely see (and hope) for a much wider prevalence of self-driving cars. A lot of people in my province die from drunk driving, which could all but be eliminated with self-driving cars, in my mind.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 17:57, STARS: 1
But there’s still data out there that says “so-so went to this place at this time” Plus I think you under-estimate ‘Merica. We got abortion legalized through the right to privacy, I’m sure we would do the same with non-autonomous cars.
"415s30 W123TSXWaggoIIIIIIo ( •_•))°)" (415s30)
11/13/2017 at 17:58, STARS: 1
I thought about that, I could see at some point having classics put some GPS unit or phone app link into whatever system may connect all vehicles and then you might have to follow traffic directions in major cities. I saw in Japan they are looking at a city wide traffic system so it can route all cars where they need to go. Mitsubishi said if a central system routed all vehicles they could remove the idiot Human factor and get 60% better flow with current traffic. But at least in the USA I can’t see people taking a classic car ban laying down, that’s tantamount to taking away all guns here.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 18:00, STARS: 1
I kind of doubt the last one. They make a profit as is without any autonomous cars. Plus once autonomous cars hit the market they’ll just make even more money off those who buy them. Insurance would probably go up, but I don’t think insurance companies would try to effectively ban them.
After all lots people driving non-autonomous cars means more customers than a bunch of people sharing an autonomous Uber.
"farscythe - makin da cawfee!" (farscythe)
11/13/2017 at 18:00, STARS: 0
well...... tbh... i hope you do.... i love driving.... but over here as soon as autonomous is provably safer.... were fucked
"arl" (arl1968)
11/13/2017 at 18:01, STARS: 0
Yes. Maybe not in my lifetime, but it will happen in my sons life.
"For Sweden" (rallybeetle)
11/13/2017 at 18:01, STARS: 0
Look, do you REALLY need a dangerous non-autonomous car?
"nermal" (nermal)
11/13/2017 at 18:02, STARS: 1
The closest comparison is with horses and horse-drawn trailers.
Regular cars as we know them today will slowly transition from the common standard to an expensive luxury item, as they are replaced by self-driving electric or fuel cell cars and mass transit.
The good thing if you’re a fan of automobiles in the current iteration is that the auto manufacturers, dealerships, and oil companies are all very large and influential in the US, who stand to benefit from keeping things as they are for as long as possible. Plus, we have both lawyers and goddam freedom. So, they won’t be going away any time soon.
"Eric @ opposite-lock.com" (theyrerolling)
11/13/2017 at 18:03, STARS: 1
I suspect that’ll be the main driver. It’s already getting expensive due to medical costs skyrocketing and I have encountered quite a few younger people priced out of operating cars. It’ll only get worse with time, picking off the young and poor first, then moving up the socioeconomic ladder.
Human-operated cars will probably exist indefinitely in specialty hobbyist areas like horses do today, but operating them on public roads will likely become prohibitively-expensive within 50 years.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 18:05, STARS: 0
1. Even then, the average age of a car in America is 11 years. There’s lots of people (besides Oppos and Jalops) who drive cars from the 90s. So even if they become affordable by new car standards, that’s still only a fraction of the population that’ll have them.
2. I’ve said this to other people, but I don’t think insurance would get that crazy. They make a profit as is and the people who buy autonomous cars will just pad that.
3. You do have a point with V2V. I could see something like that becoming mandatory. Obviously it wouldn’t be the same on a non-autonomous car, but just something to say “I’m here doing this speed etc” to autonomous cars.
4. Point 1.
"RamblinRover Luxury-Yacht" (ramblininexile)
11/13/2017 at 18:05, STARS: 0
I need a non-autonomous car to visit your mom.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 18:05, STARS: 2
Then all the European Oppos will be forced to move here to America! Yay!
"For Sweden" (rallybeetle)
11/13/2017 at 18:05, STARS: 1
Gravitation will work just fine.
"WilliamsSW" (williamssw)
11/13/2017 at 18:06, STARS: 1
Insurance companies are extremely risk-averse, though. It’s not that the industry as a whole would refuse insurance - it’s that one big company will do it to reduce the risk profile, and then others will follow, etc.
Not saying it will happen, I just think that’s more likely than a government ban, IMHO.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 18:07, STARS: 0
YES! Because that’s how the Illuminati will track us to prepare for when ever the NWO armies invade!!!
"Spridget" (dustbustervans)
11/13/2017 at 18:08, STARS: 0
I think circumstances will ultimately ban autonomous cars. You can still ride a horse on the highway, but why would you? It’s not worth it.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 18:10, STARS: 1
I don’t think it’s really equivalent. Cars on the same roads as horses is more dangerous for those riding horses than if no cars. But autonomous cars make people in non-autonomous cars safer and don’t ad any danger to them.
"djmt1" (djmt1)
11/13/2017 at 18:10, STARS: 0
I wonder what the percentage of boats, planes and trains currently in operation are fully automated. As for cars I don’t reckon manual controls will ever be outlawed outright but I do reckon that there will be increasingly more areas of cities where cars are banned with the exception of automated zero emission vehicles. Possibly on big fast roads too but way further ahead.
"Future next gen S2000 owner" (future-next-gen-s2000-owner)
11/13/2017 at 18:11, STARS: 1
1. Yep. Costs will come down but I don’t see 80-90 percent market saturation for 30-40 years.
2. Why would robot car owners have insurance? You can’t crash. The point of insurance is to have protection for things you are liable for. If I didn’t write the code, and I’m just a passenger, even though I own it, what liability would I have? It’s not my fault if it crashes, therefore why would I pay? If I’m not paying, I’m not buying insurance.
However, I can see insurance carriers using billions of dollars in buying congressman and woman to ensure you still are legally required to buy insurance.
"My bird IS the word" (mybirdistheword)
11/13/2017 at 18:11, STARS: 2
Easy. motorcycles. You can’t ban the most efficient and cost effective form of transportation enjoyed by millions. You also can’t make autonomous motorcycles to any level that doesn’t negate previous benefits.
Hence, people driven motorcycles ensure people driven cars. If SDC need a dedicated infrastructure to work, no way you are going to be able to replace hundreds of millions of vehicles overnight.
The whole thing is preposterous.
"DC3 LS, will be perpetually replacing cars until the end of time" (dc3ls-)
11/13/2017 at 18:15, STARS: 0
That is an interesting question about insurance for autonomous cars. You’d still have to have a little bit in case of vandalism, hitting a deer, etc. The thing though is that if it gets into a wreck and you own it so you would be liable for the repairs. It’s like if your house burns down. Your insurance pays out even though it wasn’t your fault.
"Future next gen S2000 owner" (future-next-gen-s2000-owner)
11/13/2017 at 18:23, STARS: 0
True, but comprehension is peanuts compared to collision. Comprehensive coverage is subsidized by collision.
"ranwhenparked" (ranwhenparked)
11/13/2017 at 18:28, STARS: 0
I don’t think they’ll be banned, possibly not ever. What I do think will happen is that insurance for self-driven cars will become prohibitively expense, which will effectively force the vast majority of them off the road.
"Tekamul" (tekamulburner)
11/13/2017 at 18:33, STARS: 1
Not gonna happen.
That means banning motorcycles, cars, Amish, etc. It’ll be an environmentalist field day, religious rights, liberatarians, the entire state of NH. Everybody would flip their shit.
It’s the same reason level 5 autonomy won’t happen. It requires all members of the roadway to have peer-to-peer communication, which excludes too many voting citizens.
"Birddog" (maintmgt)
11/13/2017 at 19:04, STARS: 1
If I change my diet and quit smoking (again) I may live long enough to see this happen. So.. Not in my lifetime.
"gettingoldercarguy" (gettingoldercarguy)
11/13/2017 at 19:24, STARS: 1
It’ll be an obdii mandate type of thing for autonomy, new cars required to offer it, then sole option. Old cars will be grandfathered in. Too many rich and powerful won’t want to see their investments trashed from regulation. Driving standards and requirements will be increased. Look at obdii, airbags, seatbelts, catalytic converters.
"Urambo Tauro" (urambotauro)
11/13/2017 at 19:54, STARS: 0
Depends on the highway. They’re banned on limited-access freeways, but you could still get from point A to point B on horseback via surface streets.
"merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc" (merged-5876237249235911857-hrw8uc)
11/13/2017 at 20:03, STARS: 1
That’s my thought. They’ll go the way of horses. And it’ll be a true hobby type thing.
"briannutter1" (briannutter1)
11/14/2017 at 04:09, STARS: 0
Could I still take a model T on the interstate as long as I hit 45?
"pip bip - choose Corrour" (hhgttg69)
11/14/2017 at 05:56, STARS: 0
i hope not.
"Kanaric" (Kanaric1)
11/14/2017 at 12:55, STARS: 0
What about motorcycles? I think that is the first question we should ask. If cars are being made to be so “safe” what is going to happen to bikes?