by "notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
Published 06/30/2017 at 20:22
by "notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
Published 06/30/2017 at 20:22
Tags: buy drive kill
STARS: 2
Buying a car as an investment is a
terrible
idea, although history has showed the well-timed purchase of a few models was “less-terrible” than others. In the first column of what will be a recurring series (hopefully), what models might put you ahead in a few years? What’s worth keeping around your garage to see-what-happens? And finally, what’s got a value proposition as promising as Enron stock options? Buckle up, we’re going around the world for this one.
Note: this column in an opinion. One man’s opinion, on the internet, with no basis, at all, and you should not invest based on a free column on the internet. You should not invest in cars. Do not invest in cars. Also, sorry I have no lede graphic, the one I made sucks and I’m not making another one.
Since this is the first column, let’s define the terms, here:
Buy: When people talk about “bang for your buck,” these models are Exhibit A, both from a drivability and a “financial-outlook” perspective. They’re fast, they’re cool, they’re desirable, and based on that combination of factors, they certainly seem cheap. And if prices do go up, better to be an owner than a buyer. If you ever wanted one of these for your garage, this is the time.
Drive: The “mama bear” of the bunch, these aren’t cars to fly out and look for, but as the winds of depreciation vs. collectability change, you could do a helluva lot worse. Might as well enjoy the ride, sit tight, put some miles on it, and check prices again in a couple years to see if you’re sitting on buried treasure.
Kill: These cars are so ludicrously expensive they deserve to die a slow, fiery death for being so far out of reach. But more specific than that, their stratospheric sales prices mean there’s only one direction for them to go. Should you want one? Hell yeah you should want one! Window shopping is free! But if you’ve already got one, maybe consider whether you’ll end up with a case of “ Tavarish’s Regret. ”
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Jesus, how are these cars so cheap? Capable of ripping a sub-5 second 0-60 and a 0.9 on the skidpad, this was all the best of the “old school” – 6 speed manual, 333hp naturally aspirated I6, and fully-defeatable DSC and traction control. It’s a striking model toward the end of BMW’s more restrained years, identifiable from all angles despite not being peppered with ///M badges. And the wheels, lord the wheels.
These cars were regularly in the 30-40k range for years after they sold, seemingly tied up in the “ Elise Paradox ” and immune to depreciation. But as they worked their way to third owners the bottom fell out. Now granted, mid-model BMW doesn’t have the owner support of, say, Porsche or exotic brands, but what the hell happened here? Did everyone just go get new leases? Did excessive ///M badging devalue the cars retroactively? Are they lumped in with the pokey E36?
No matter. Well-documented, mid-mileage examples are trading around $20,000, with well-driven and maintained instances flirting with four figure price tags. There is absolutely zero way that depression is sustainable, and we all know what happened to the E30’s.
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Drive your damn Corvettes, people. If you can look past the “musty old man midlife crisis-mobile” reputation affixed to the C5, what a hell of a performer. You’d be hard-pressed to find something else that could keep up even in the periphery of the rearward visibility in the $16,000 range . Yes, that’s it. If the BMW was a scalpel the Corvette is a hammer. A really powerful hammer – like, a rocket-powered hammer. It’s a 405 hp Corvette, jeez.
That said, the ‘Vettes always seem to follow a strange and unusually protracted pricing curve, and it’s hard to tell if this is even the bottom… even if you can find sub-10k mile instances at under half of MSRP. (Yes, you can find instances where the only scheduled maintenance was an oil change, and they’re under $25k.) The C4 generation – especially the actually-limited-and-actually-worthwhile Grand Sport and ZR1 trims – is juuuuust starting to come out of the valley, and as more and more silvertops realize they can’t bend over far enough to sit in them anymore, there’s bound to be more C5’s on the market in the short term. But these are significant American sports cars in ways that few can match, so the prices will come back up. The key word though? Eventually. So in the meantime: drive your damn Corvette.
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Preface: I’ve been a bit bearish on Japanese Market imports lately, largely because those who grew up worshipping these cars in the era of Gran Turismo scraped up their disposable income to get in while the gettin’ was good. And now, that ship has sailed. It’s done. Tavarish warned you . RIP your JDM dreams.
But if you really, really want a glimmer of hope, here it is: a significant number of people buying Z32’s and FD’s and Mk IV’s are gonna go straight over to R34 and 22B and Evo V’s as soon as 25 years rolls around. There’s a fixed number of old cars – yes – but the supply is going to increase both on a model-by-model basis and an overall JDM presence. So while the tides of the market have a lot of money flowing into Japanese future classics, something about a $25k FD with one accident 120k miles and a rebuilt engine just doesn’t line up with that.
And that’s the problem with the current FD market – there isn’t any semblance of a market for FD’s as collectibles , it’s a market for FD’s as “things.” Status symbols. Things have gone totally bananas over the last 3 years (thanks again Tavarish) to the point that no one has any idea what they’re worth. If anyone did, it would be Hagerty’s, which values them at about half of what they’re trading for. Salvage title? $30k! Half-finished project that isn’t running? $40k! Rolling shell? $12k! Whatever! Just write something on the windshield and see who calls! We’re making it up as we go along!
So if you’re one of the lucky/smart/rich ones with a FD in the extra space in the garage, it might be time to consider cashing out while you can just stick it on craigslist and see what happens. The market is going to stabilize eventually, and it sure won’t be higher than “screw it, I’ma ask for $42069.” If you’re right-side up, maybe taking the cash isn’t such a bad idea.
Till next time.
"TheHondaBro" (wwaveform)
06/30/2017 at 20:26, STARS: 0
Buy M3 because investment.
Drive C5 Vette because RWD V8.
Kill RX7 because rotary.
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
06/30/2017 at 20:27, STARS: 1
no, no investment THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
dontinvestNOINVESTING
"itranthelasttimeiparkedit" (itranthelasttimeiparkedit)
06/30/2017 at 21:35, STARS: 1
I like this, more please.
Suggestion: do this for something like $5k cars. E30s, MR2s and miatas ohmy
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
06/30/2017 at 21:51, STARS: 0
A couple of the ones I have in mind are in that range - might be a good second column to do them together though. I’ve thought of a few themes and price wasn’t one of them - great idea. Thanks for the encouragement and feedback!
"itranthelasttimeiparkedit" (itranthelasttimeiparkedit)
06/30/2017 at 22:08, STARS: 0
I think price would be a great way to do it. Like $20k: buy e39 m5 investment, drive somethingsomething, kill s class mercedes/bmw because depreciation and repairs are going to eat you alive
"WilliamsSW" (williamssw)
06/30/2017 at 22:18, STARS: 0
This is good Kinja here.
Definitely agree on the M3 (that and the E39 M5 are obvious classics) and C5, and suspect you’re right on the RX7 too.
MOAR pls
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
06/30/2017 at 22:57, STARS: 0
Yeah, this was supposed to be more of a buy/sell/hold kind of thing, just with “kill” substituted for sell to give it some life. So maybe find a different set of words. Or change the intention. Or both. The only thing I’m iffy about is what the expected maintenance on these is (are?). Lotta extra work since not as many will be so obvious.
"Discerning" (discerning2003c5z)
07/01/2017 at 00:27, STARS: 0
You’re wrong about the e46. The prices on those will settle in short order.
They aren’t the first, they aren’t special by modern standards, they made quite a few.
They are in my burn column. Unnecessarily expensive to repair and maintain and really no quicker than a g37 (Which I also have little interest in)
"Discerning" (discerning2003c5z)
07/01/2017 at 00:28, STARS: 0
An e46 is not an investment
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
07/01/2017 at 00:55, STARS: 1
I’ve plugged the E46 for years now but in December Hagerty had it as their #1 car for 2017 so I’m not alone in this opinion. It was the last naturally aspirated I6 M coupe. That sounds like a stupid “ESPN Stats and Info” metric, but it was also one of the better (if not best) cars in its segment even compared to the 911 (which was in the fried egg / IMS years) and the S4, which has its own issues. It was one of the last of a dying breed and I think it’ll hold value accordingly.
M3 buyers are not stumbling over themselves for a G37. The G35 coupe has held value extremely well and I think it will continue to do so as a far better styled 350/G37.
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
07/01/2017 at 09:44, STARS: 1
I hope I’m right on the FD, they’re gorgeous cars and I covet them. But they are not $25k cars in 2017. Eventually, but not yet.
"WilliamsSW" (williamssw)
07/01/2017 at 09:47, STARS: 0
They are gorgeous, and my favorite RX7. They seem to be rare, too.
"Discerning" (discerning2003c5z)
07/01/2017 at 09:50, STARS: 0
The z4m coupe was the last inline 6 m coupe.
It might have been produced in a time when it ruled it’s segment, but it still isn’t remarkable or special. It’s just a 300hp coupe.
Also, I’ve seen people cross shopping the G and the m3 for years now.
You’re hoping the e46 will represent the 993 for M cars, but it simply won’t. There just isn’t enough that’s compelling about the E46 to justify what you think will happen.
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
07/01/2017 at 10:36, STARS: 0
You got me on the Z4M. My bad.
I agree with you that right now the M3 has been “just a blah blah blah” and people who just want “a sports coupe” would cross shop against a G37. But if your complaint is the M3 was too mass produced I don’t know how the G37 improves on that. They made 26k M3 coupes, which isn’t a particularly limited run, but it’s also not THAT common, especially since probably half of those are off the road. I really don’t think the market for M3's will overlap the G37's in 2-3 years because of the extent of the production difference.
I have no expectation it’s gonna be the next 993 - far from it, the E30 M3 would be the 993 for BMW if anything, and it’s already going that way. That said, there’s mountains of cars that have held value despite being “just a ____”. The 3000GT doesn’t have much in the way of remarkable features next to the Z32 or MkIV or FD but it’s doing fine.
As I’ve said before, if you’re buying a car as an investment, don’t do that. If you want a car you can enjoy and put some miles on and not go belly-up in a few years, I see no reason that the M3 can’t do that.
"Discerning" (discerning2003c5z)
07/01/2017 at 11:59, STARS: 0
I’m just sour because I bought a c5z, expecting it to hold its value better, but it’s just barely exceeded the remaining balance on the small loan I took out to get it. Though, I’m basing that resale price on trade in value, and of course no one wants to give me a good price on a 14 year old car.
I’m sure the e46 will level off and you won’t lose much if you buy one with 50k miles and put another 20 on it.
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
07/01/2017 at 15:23, STARS: 0
What’s the trade in on those? I mean, I’m pretty rosy on C5Z’s (and to the extent you care, I think Hagertys is too). They’re a huge wildcard though because they’re fucking awesome cars for the money but no one wants to drive what their dad owned. No idea what’s gonna happen in the next couple years so might as well enjoy it?
"Discerning" (discerning2003c5z)
07/01/2017 at 16:01, STARS: 0
Bought mine with 20k on the clock and it has about 50K now. I’m the second owner and it’s flawless with the exception of worn seats. No tears, just the usual GM leather cracking. It had a few modifications, but the only thing left is aftermarket valve springs and pushrods, but that is imperceivable. Best offer I got on it for trade was 16K. Though I’ve had people offer me anywhere from 19k to 21k when I mention I want to sell it.
I’d hold onto it, but I kinda want a new 4runner and I know I would use the C5Z significantly less if I bought the Toyota.
"notsomethingstructural" (notsomethingstructural)
07/01/2017 at 18:10, STARS: 0
21k is a pretty solid offer for a private sale with a 50k car, and even $16k for trade in isn’t bad at all. You’re not all that bad off IMO. The Toyota will be there, might as well hang onto the Vette while you’re enjoying it.