by "LJ909" (lj909)
Published 05/26/2017 at 19:00
by "LJ909" (lj909)
Published 05/26/2017 at 19:00
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STARS: 2
A few automakers are about to flood the US auto market with new or refreshed vehicles over the next 4 years according to a new report called Car Wars 2018-2021, an annual report done by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research. The report gives us pretty accurate insight from what I’ve followed of it over the years into whats coming to market. So we can honestly expect a lot of these vehicles and reports to be true. Here’s whats on the agenda:
GM
They are on track to pretty much flood the market with large trucks and CUV’s in the next few years. But there are a few surprises according to the report that have been pretty much not reported on.
2018
Launches of already known about models Traverse, Enclave, Terrain and Equniox
Buick Park Avenue (!)
2019
Cadillac XT7,XT4 and CT4
New Buick Encore
New Chevy Silverado and Corvette Zora Coupe and Convertible. (Whats interesting about this is that the report actually calls it the Zora. Could this be the mid-engined Vette we’ve seen running around?)
New GMC Sierra
2020
Cadillac XT3 and a new Escalade ( I guess the XT7 isnt a replacement for the Escalade)
GMC Yukon and XL, Sierra HD and some small CUV they only list as B-CUV
Chevy Silverado HD,Suburban and Tahoe and a new Sonic sedan and hatch
Aside from the usual truck and crossover launches, I’m really surprised and excited about a Park Avenue and this Corvette Zora. Especially considering I’ve heard or read nothing about a Park Avenue anywhere.
Ford
For 2017 and 2018 the report lists Ford’s model replacement as “slow” but accelerating in 19' and 20' with a strong shift towards CUV’s and trucks going into the next decade. There are some surprises though.
2018
New Expedition along with a new Focus and Fiesta
Lincoln MKA which it lists as a sedan, MKM which is a coupe and the Navigator
2019
New Explorer, Escape, C-Max,Ranger,Taurus and Fusion
2020
Ford EcoSport (which could suggest some kind of refresh or just be flat out wrong), New F-150, Transit Connect and Bronco
New Lincoln MKZ
Fords rollouts are surprising for a few reasons: the surprising and exciting Lincoln small MKA sedan and MKM. There’s so many questions. Is the MKA going to be RWD or play it safe with FWD? Will the MKM finally give us the Mustang based Lincoln Mark VIII successor we have been asking for? And the return of the Aviator means another Explorer based Lincoln SUV, alongside the MKC and MKX.
FCA
The report seems to suggest a good outlook for FCA that many of us don’t share, stating : “ FCA has relatively successfully worked through a lull in its product cadence,which should accelerate materially”. In total there are 9 CUV launches the next 4 years accoss FCA brands.
2018
Jeep Compatriot (?) and Wrangler
Ram 1500
Alfa Romeo Small CUV ( that’s literally what it says. No name or anything)
2019
Jeep Grand Cherokee and Grand Wagoneer
Chrysler 200,300 and an EV CUV
Alfa Romero Giulietta hatch (!)
Ram 2500/3500
2020
Dodge Charger and Challenger (finally!) and Durango
Jeep Cherokee
Ram full size SUV
Alfa Romero Spider coupe and convertible
Fiat 500
It looks like FCA might start to remedy the problems with their lineups being old that I’ve gone over before. I’m confused on the Compatroit and 200. I thought that Chrysler had given up on that unless they went back to the drawing board which i think they should have. I’m really curious as to what this ram full size SUV is going to look like. The good thing is Chrysler’s bread and butter 300 is coming sooner rather than later like the Charger and Challenger. They solider on for another 3 years.
Toyota/Lexus
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Toyota isn’t releasing as many as the others, and surprisingly is focusing more on cars than crossovers and trucks.
2018 (all models we already knew about)
Toyota 4Runner
New LS
New Camry
2019
Toyota Rav4,Tundra,Sienna,Avalon and Yaris
Lexus GX,ES and CT
2020
Toyota Highlander,Sequioa, Land Cruiser and Corolla
Lexus NX,LX,GS, and IS
Whats interesting about Toyota is a couple things: a redesign of the long in the tooth Predator faced GX, equally long in the tooth Sequoia and Tundra and the GS and IS. The GS had been rumored to get the boot due to slow sales, and the report lists the IS has being coupe, sedan and convertible. Could this mean that the RC coupe is on the chopping block?
Honda/Acura
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The report lists Honda as being in a unique position due to them having a “ simplified two brand lineup that sets them apart from most other automakers ”. They also say they see a risk with them focusing more on cars for the next 4 years.
2018
Acura RDX and CDX
Honda Accord and CR-Z
2019
Acura MDX,RLX and TLX
Honda Insight
2020
Acura ILX
Honda Civic
Honda Fit
Honda seems to be keeping it very simple the next few years. A few things stand out though: the report shows the CR-Z coming next year, though everyone else has said that it was gone. 2019 shows the TLX coming with a coupe variant and 2020 seems a new or refreshed Civic and ILX, which should put it in line with the Civic its based on.
Nissan/Infiniti
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Whats interesting here is that the repot points out what I just wrote about on Oppo earlier: their product replacement rate. They also point out a lack of product direction and a risk of loosing market share due to its replacement rate lagging behind the rest of the industry.
2018
Nissan Z (!),Versa and Cube
2019
Nissan Pathfinder,Juke (they could mean Kicks that i talked about earlier) NV200, Altima
Infiniti Q70,QX60 and QX70
2020
Nissan GT-R,Sentra,Leaf,Rouge,Quest
Infiniti QX80 and Q50
Honestly with Nissan there’s really nothing to get excited about except this report saying that a new Z is coming next year. A few things surprise me though because of conflicting reports: the return of the Cube next year, 2019 has the Altima listed as being Sedan and Coupe and the Juke, which I just reported on being given the ax for 2017 and GT-R isnt coming until next decade. But like I said, they could mean the Kicks for the Juke.
The Germans
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The report groups the Germans together for some reason so Ill do the same since there’s a lot.
2018
VW Touraeg,Jetta, Aretron
BMW X3
Audi A6,A7 and A8
Porsche Cayenne, refreshed 718 Boxster and Cayman
Mercedes CLS
2019
Audi Q4,Q6,Q8 and Allroad
Mercedes ELC (listed as being a small CUV), GT-4 listed as a sports sedan,GLE
Mini Countryman
BMW 3,6,Z5,X7
Porsche 911
VW Passat
2020
Audi A3
Mercedes GLS,Sprinter,SL and CLA
BMW X5
Porsche Pajun (listed as a sedan
VW Beetle
Theres not much thats surprising here. The Germans have been leading the onslaught of CUV’s to the marker. Im curious to the MB ELC, GT-4, which im thinking could be the AMG GT based Sedan and the Porsche Pajun in 20'. Could that be a Porsche 3 Series fighter?
Hyundai/Kia
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The report lists Hyundai as risky for debuting more cars than CUV’s the next few years. But we get to finally see a build up of the Genesis brand.
2018
Genesis G70
Hyundai Azera,Accent,Veloster
Kia Rio
2019
Hyundai Santa Fe and Santa Fe Sport,Satna Cruz Small pickup
Genesis GV90 CUV
Kia Soul
2020
Genesis GV80 large CUV,G80
Hyundai Sonata and Elantra
There’s nothing really exciting. Strangely, I saw no mention of the rumored luxury coupe from Genesis, nor any mention of a refresh or all new G90.
The Others (seriously, the report lists Jaguar/Land Rover,Subaru, Volvo Mazda and Tesla under Other OEM’s)
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From these automakers we are going to see an onslaught of CUV’s and wagons the next few years
2018
Subaru XV
Volvo XC60,V90
Jaguar E-Pace
Mitsubishi Lancer
Tesla Model 3
2019
Jaguar I-Pace,XJ Coupe and Convertible
Subaru BRZ and an unnamed crossover
Range Rover Evoque
Volvo XC40,S60 and V60 Wagon
Mazda 5 Wagon
2020
Land Rover Defender,Range Rover
Mazda3,CX-5,RX-7
Mitsubishi Outlander
Tesla Model S
Volvo V40 wagon and S40
Subaru WRX and Legacy
Whats most interesting here to me is Jaguar giving us an XJ coupe and convertible which should be interesting and in the same vein as the old XJS convertibles. Also Mazda giving us a 5 wagon and an RX-7. This should be very interesting.
But there you have it folks. Most automakers product plans through the end of the decade. I believe most of it, but not all considering other reports and news I’ve heard and read. Share what you guys think. Here’s a link to the report if you guys are interested.
"G_Body_Man: Sponsored by the number 3" (gbodyman)
05/26/2017 at 20:42, STARS: 0
2018 Nissan Cube? Holy Shit!
"LJ909" (lj909)
05/26/2017 at 20:43, STARS: 0
Right?
"G_Body_Man: Sponsored by the number 3" (gbodyman)
05/26/2017 at 20:46, STARS: 0
As an enormous fan of the current (it’s still being made in Japan) Cube, I’m pretty excited. With the resurgence of crossovers, all it needs is optional AWD, a little cladding and meatier rolling stock, and it could be a hit.
"carcrasher88" (carcrasher88)
05/26/2017 at 20:50, STARS: 0
For FCA, Compatriot pretty much just means the new Compass that was just released to replace it’s predecessor and the Patriot.
Should be interesting to see what this supposed small Alfa CUV is, especially with how good looking the Stelvio is.
Doubt Ram is gonna get a large SUV, or any kind of SUV at all. If it happens, it’ll be a Dodge.
The unnamed Subaru crossover is the 7-seater Ascent, and should be 2018, not 2019.
The Mitsubishi Lancer is not getting a replacement, and should really say Eclipse Cross.
Highly doubt Mazda is bringing a wagon here, or reviving the 5 nameplate.
Pretty sure Hyundai is not building the Santa Cruz pickup.
That Pajun is likely that new smaller Porsche sedan that’s supposedly being developed alongside a 928 successor. That should be interesting.
The Sprinter is certainly due for a redesign, since the one currently on the market has actually been available for over a decade.
Not sure if the BMW 6 Series is getting redone, or if the upcoming 8 Series will replace it.
The Versa sedan sure needs to either get a good redesign or go altogether. Of course, they could pull a Canada and just give us a Micra instead. The new one is pretty slick looking.
Given that Nissan has pulled the Quest off of the market (other than fleet sales, so I’ve read), it’s unlikely it’ll get a redesign...but then again, that’s what most said when it came to the one before it.
Also doubting the Cube coming back, especially since the xB is gone as well...though the Soul is still selling pretty decently.
A few years back, I probably would have said the Leaf would be a one generation and done model, but with all of these competitive EVs coming out, it’s very likely a new one will come, maybe with a spin-off model?
Acura has no plans to bring the CDX here, the CR-Z isn’t coming back, nor is the Insight.
Still surprises me the Lexus CT has hung on this long, but it’s actually doing alright. Not sure if well enough to warrant a redesign or not. Hopefully it does.
Also, honestly...I have doubts that the VW Beetle is gonna get a redesign. They’ve been becoming rarer and rarer on the roads these days, telling me sales have dropped a lot (haven’t actually looked at it’s sales numbers) and dealers just seem to refuse to stock many of them.
Buick Park Avenue? That’s wishful thinking. It should read Regal and Regal TourX. There’s no new PA coming.
There’s likely not a new Corvette coming in the next few years, the C7 will likely stay around at least until 2023, if not longer. The C6, for example, went from 2005 to 2013.
Doubt GMC is gonna get a b-segment CUV, but if they do, it better have the Granite nameplate and be more boxy than curvy.
The rest of the GM part is highly believable, especially from the truck and Cadillac standpoints.
Ford C-Max is more likely to see the axe than a redesign. It’s a very poor seller.
Aviator is more likely a mid-size than large, given the stature of the Navigator. Maybe an MKX facelift/replacement?
Also doubt Lincoln is gonna make anything smaller than an MKZ.
I also love how the image they use for the Odyssey is an international model, not a US model, and there’s no plug-in Odyssey in the US.
Lastly...an RX-7? Not likely any time soon, if ever. Pretty sure the rotary engine’s days are numbered.
"LJ909" (lj909)
05/26/2017 at 20:52, STARS: 0
I don’t know. Its the only thing in this report I take with a huge grain of salt. Especially when you consider how bad the sales of the Cube got before it went away. I mean it was never a big seller to begin with because it was quirky as hell. But I did like how it was an actual Cube compared to the Scion xB
"carcrasher88" (carcrasher88)
05/26/2017 at 20:52, STARS: 0
More than likely not to happen. A lot of this report is wishful thinking, filled with discontinued nameplates that are unlikely to return.
"G_Body_Man: Sponsored by the number 3" (gbodyman)
05/26/2017 at 20:57, STARS: 0
The biggest issue with the Cube was incredibly bad timing. Boxy cars were on the way out, and small crossovers becoming mainstream was 4 years away at minimum. If they threw some cladding on it and gave it optional AWD (or the e-4WD system in JDM cars), it could be a decent seller in today’s marketplace.
"G_Body_Man: Sponsored by the number 3" (gbodyman)
05/26/2017 at 21:04, STARS: 0
It’s probably wishful thinking, but there’s too much stuff on here that I can confirm to be able to pass up the idea.
"LJ909" (lj909)
05/26/2017 at 21:12, STARS: 0
There’s a few things you addressed I want to address. But some of the stuff you mentioned I took with a grain of salt:
I could see Ram getting an SUV. If it went to Dodge it would conflict with the Durango.
There could be a possibility of Mitsubishi getting a new Lancer from what I’ve read. Their lineup can’t be just 3 crossovers and a small hatch and sedan.
I’m with you about the Mazda 5 though it would be interesting. But again highly doubtful.
There were a lot of reports about Hyundai’s Santa Cruze pickup being almost ready for release for the 19’ model year as recent as November of 16’. So I think it actually is coming.
The Porsche Pajun would make sense as a small sports sedan to compete with the other Germans and to a lesser extent the ATS. I haven’t heard anything about a 928 successor though.
I just read the other day that the 6 is coming back and is going to slot below the 8 Series. It’s going to play E class Coupe to BMW’s 8 Series S Class coupe.
Acura is planning or at least in talks with R&D about bringing the CDX here. I wrote about it a few weeks ago. . I know the CR-Z report to be wrong as well as the Insight. Both were failures, and Honda is expanding the Clarity lineup to include an EV model as well as a plug in Hybrid that’s coming soon. Those would fill a role the Insight left.
The Beetles days are numbered. Motor Trend reported that it may not get a next gen a few weeks ago.
If Buick is developing a new Park Ave it would be nice. But I don’t see it happening for 2 main reasons: it would step on Cadillac’s toes and the only other way to go would be to bring the one from China, and that’s Holden based, so it’s on its way out.
The mid-engined prototype that’s been running around would suggest that there is a new Vette coming though I don’t think it’s a C8, but a top dog variant to run with the exotics. Which would explain why its differentiated by the Zora nameplate.
The C-Max was hinted at being given the axe about a month or so back by Mark Fields along with other slow sellers like the Taurus.
I could see Lincoln doing an Aviator but at the same time it wouldn’t be that much bigger than the MKX, and they really don’t need an MKC, MKX, Aviator and Navigator.
I’m with you on not thinking Lincoln is making anything smaller than the MKZ. What platform would it use? It would be a dilution of the brand if it were some next gen Focus based sedan. The only way I could see this small sedan working is if it is a shortened Fusion/MKZ platform or a short Mustang platform.
"LJ909" (lj909)
05/26/2017 at 21:13, STARS: 0
They tried to give people what they missed with the xB: quirky boxiness. But for the reasons you stated it didnt work. In some ways it was a little too JDM.
"carcrasher88" (carcrasher88)
05/26/2017 at 21:37, STARS: 1
The part about the possible conflict with the Durango is true, especially now that a 5-seater option is available on the base SXT and new GT trims.
Everything I’ve read has said that Mitsubishi has no plans to replace the Lancer.
I’ve read those reports on the Santa Cruz, but nothing’s been confirmed. Still, with how well the new Ridgeline has been doing...it’s probably more likely now than it was a year or so ago.
The Chinese Park Avenue actually ended production a few years back. Still, there’s probably at least a little room in the lineup above the LaCrosse, which, big as it is, is definitely no Continental competitor.
Heard about the C-Max, also know the Flex is done after 2020, I had figured we’d be getting a US version of the new Taurus sold in China.
Like I mentioned, it’s more likely that Lincoln would ditch the MKX nameplate for the Aviator one, like they did when replacing the MKS with the Continental. There’s not room enough for 4, but there is room for three, and that would just leave the MKX as the odd nameplate out.
There was the C concept from 2009, and at the time, they were actually thinking of building it, based on the Focus, then they were gonna build a Mercury Tracer off of the Focus, then we just got the top of the line Titanium trim Focus instead.
"bhtooefr" (bhtooefr)
05/27/2017 at 17:20, STARS: 0
All rumors I’ve heard indicate that the CT’s replacement will be the UX, which will likely be a C-HR reskin, which really makes me doubt the veracity of some of this stuff...
"bhtooefr" (bhtooefr)
05/27/2017 at 17:32, STARS: 0
That’s quite a lot of new product that Toyota’s doing - that’s basically the entire model line across both brands, except for what’s already new and out, after all.
2019 is odd timing for a new Yaris, though, unless it’s just bringing the existing new 2017-2018 depending on how it’s counted. (That said, I’m speculating that the Prius c will go away, and if that happens, a Yaris Hybrid might happen here. I think it’d be a good idea to keep a close eye on sales figures for the Vitz Hybrid vs. the Aqua in Japan. The Aqua’s more efficient, but if the Japanese market decides to switch to the Vitz, the Prius c (which is just a badge job on the Aqua) will die, mark my words.)
The new RAV4 is going to be critical for Toyota, as they’re already seeing it overtaking the Camry in sales figures. Granted, the RAV4 Hybrid is still a fairly new product, but it’s fundamentally the same hybrid system that’s been available in the Camry since 2012, and neither the RAV4 nor the Camry are themselves young products, the current Camry dating back to 2002, and the current RAV4 essentially dating back to 2006.
The Tundra will be interesting, because the current truck is lagging badly on fuel efficiency, doesn’t offer a heavy duty option (whereas even Nissan offers a... 5/8 ton? option), but has a strong reputation for reliability. I personally believe that the Lexus multi-stage hybrid gearbox was really designed for the Tundra (it doesn’t make sense to use it the way that the LC 500h uses it, if they really intended it for that vehicle - I’d have just done a pancake motor in the 10-speed automatic’s bellhousing in that case), and a Tundra hybrid might do well if executed properly, too.
However, a new CT? Really?
"LJ909" (lj909)
05/27/2017 at 17:43, STARS: 0
It would make more sense for the Yaris Hybrid to be sold here. At the same though, Toyota has seemed pretty adamant on having the Prius be a full “family”of vehicles. But I dont see that continuing. Sales of the Prius V and Prius C havent been that good. It would be best to consolidate.
The Tundra really does lag behind the competition on fuel economy. Its telling to me and almost a contradiction that as hybrid heavy as Toyota’s lineup is, they make 2 (or 3 if you count the Land Cruiser) of the most thirsty and dated vehicles on the market: the Tundra and the Sequoia. But I dont see them doing and HD version of the Tundra. At the most I see them offering a diesel on the next gen that’s it. Tundra customers have seemed to be content with it never having been offered with an HD model, and I doubt they want to go the confusing direction Nissan went in with its in between a half ton and HD Titan.
"bhtooefr" (bhtooefr)
05/27/2017 at 18:02, STARS: 1
I really don’t think Toyota’s going to go diesel in this climate. They’ve long been leery of diesels worldwide, and even pulled the entire Lexus brand out of diesel in Europe years ago, switching to hybrids.
Edit: As far as the whole Prius family thing goes... I haven’t really seen that being pushed lately. And, I think Toyota’s going to end up cost-cutting the v, rolling it into existing locally produced models in various places. For Japan, I suspect that the next generation of Wish will be the lucky recipient of a Prius powertrain, to replace the Prius a. For Europe, I suspect that the Verso will get one, to replace the Prius +. And, for the US, we’re crossover-crazy, and didn’t get the three-row Prius v, so I think the next-gen RAV4 Hybrid (which I expect 40 mpg combined out of, with the improvements that the new Camry Hybrid powertrain brings) will serve as the Prius v’s de-facto replacement.
The Prius c only really exists in the US market because of the inertia of the Aqua being a fantastic seller in Japan - it was the #1 car for years, as I understand, there (and therefore it’s cheap for Toyota to send whatever will sell over here). Now, though, the Gen 4 Prius Liftback, the C-HR (which has a hybrid option from the Prius Liftback), and the Nissan Note (which has the e-Power hybrid option) have all overtaken the Aqua in Japan. And, Vitz (read: Yaris) sales are climbing, with the new generation getting the hybrid powertrain shared with the Aqua.