by "bwp240" (bwp240)
Published 05/04/2017 at 16:39
by "bwp240" (bwp240)
Published 05/04/2017 at 16:39
Tags: Flip or Flop
; NPoCP
STARS: 9
I stumbled upon this Craigslist post for a $600 2003 Lincoln Aviator with what describes seemingly easy problems. On first glance it looks like a great candidate for a flip, but as common sense began to take over, it looks like it could just as easily roll over me.
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The discussion I had with my friend got me thinking of a new post series we could have here on Oppo. We are all familiar with Nice Price or Crack Pipe where we judge whether a car is worth our hard earned dollars to buy for ourselves, but this series looks at whether a car will be good investment to Flip or will it Flop (and since I don’t think Flip or Flop is a registered trademark of HGTV, I don’t see why we can’t call it that).
Instead of focusing on “is it worth it to me?” these posts look more on the business side. Details include the complete proposed flip work orders and budget estimates: the cost of the car, cost of required fees for the state (TTL) if necessary, cost of parts, general market research, and profit calculation. I know there are many unknowns, but it is fun to experiment. Plus this gives you another reason to look at sub-$1000 CL listings.
Disclaimer: I hardly have any idea what I am doing, but it is fun to guesstimate. I am sure I am missing something crucial, but these are suppose to be pre-flip analysis and rarely do you know exactly what the problems are.
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The Lincoln Aviator is a smaller version of the Navigator, this is quite evident in the fact that it looks exactly the same - but smaller, and they only changed the name by removing the “N” and “g.” The key benefit is that the Aviator uses many parts off the Navigator, Explorer, Excursion, and some stuff that can be sourced from F150s. Unlike their Tahoe and Suburban counterparts, these have slide in value a fair amount.
Price: $600
CL Description:
2003 Lincoln Aviator. THere is something wrong with it. It can be driven slowly a short distance but right now it has 2 flat tires and a dead battery. The drivers window needs a new motor they are about $200. The battery cannot be jumped, I tried so it will need the tires aired up and new batter to drive off or towed from I435/Metcalf area in OP. It has about $160K miles, one owner. It was a great car needs cleaned up been sitting for awhile. Clean Title.
From the description there are two easily identifiable repairs, the window motor and the battery/electric. The window motor is an easy Pick n Pull trip. Since this isn’t a critical life or death part, I would have no problem putting a junkyard motor in there. There is also a reverse light missing which is another simple junkyard pickup. There are some scratches and dings on the bumper, but they don’t look too bad to be worth addressing.
However, the battery/electrical gives us two options:
It is a very simple alternator replacement which can be done for $25 - $160 depending on if you want to brave the junkyard or buy new.
Fix the alternator, problem still present, everlasting death spiral that leaves you cold, alone, and penniless.
The tires are also a concern. The fact that two are flat now indicates that either a) it has been sitting a while or b) there is a significant leak or c) both.
Now the good side. With ~160k miles, Aviators go for between $3.5k to $6k. There are still a couple unknowns with this one namely is it AWD and does it have the 3rd row. If both it is closer to $6k; without, it is more toward the $3.5k. With that in mind here is the project estimate:
Car Cost: $600 + ~$100 TTL + Window Motor $20 (junkyard) + Alternator ($25-$160) + Battery ($126) + Tires ([$150 [Tire Rack avg] * 2 min] $300-600) + Other Parts ($50) = $1221 - $1656
Potential Sale Price: $3500 - $6000
Potential Profit*: $1844 - $4779. No Tires: $2444 - $5079.
*Assuming nothing goes horribly wrong.
The biggest variable in this potential flip is the electrics, if it is anything other than an alternator replacement or a starter replacement, things get complicated, and it turns into how long do you chase the problem. It looks as though there is plenty of money to be made if Aviator values hold steady.
So what say you Oppo. Is it a flip, or a flop?
"jasmits" (jasmits)
05/04/2017 at 16:42, STARS: 1
It’s pretty much just an Explorer, I don’t think anything would be too hard.
"Bob Loblaw Made Me Make a Phoney Phone Call to Edward Rooney" (braddelaparker)
05/04/2017 at 16:45, STARS: 9
It may be a flip or a flop, but it’s definitely worth an attempt at a flip. At $600 even if it winds up being beyond saving you should be able to get your money back out of it just by stripping it down and selling a few primo parts for cash and then crushing the rest.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/04/2017 at 16:50, STARS: 1
Yeah that is one good thing at this price point. You could probably just sell the rims and tires, buy rollers from the junkyard and make most of your money back.
"Sovereign, Purveyor of Coupes" (sovereign-automotive)
05/04/2017 at 16:50, STARS: 12
I like this series idea.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/04/2017 at 16:52, STARS: 1
I just thought of it after seeing Huzer’s Honda post. Too bad for me I cannot do this type of operation in my apartment complex parking lot.
"Sampsonite24-Earth's Least Likeliest Hero" (sampsonite24)
05/04/2017 at 16:55, STARS: 0
if its got a clean title i say its a good flip candidate
"Nothing" (nothingatalluseful)
05/04/2017 at 16:56, STARS: 0
Definitely more potential there than I have on the car I picked up for this purpose, as long as a tasmanian devil didn’t go to town on the interior or anything.
"Future next gen S2000 owner" (future-next-gen-s2000-owner)
05/04/2017 at 16:59, STARS: 0
Buy it. Attempt to fix the electrical first. If it isn’t an easy problem get out of it. That way you aren’t in it for any significant amount of money and can get out of it with little to no loss.
Or buy and part out.
The money is there.
"JR1" (type35bugatti)
05/04/2017 at 16:59, STARS: 2
At $600 I say flip. That is a small enough risk that if you first would address the electrical problem and determine the fix is cheap you have a big piece of profit likely. Furthermore SUVs are as we all know how right now so you would likely be able to make back a good chunk of money.
Also I like the series
"TFSIVTEC drivesavolvo" (drivesaswedishcarmadeinbelgium-)
05/04/2017 at 17:02, STARS: 0
Isn’t that what David Tracy uses Walmart parking lots for
"jkm7680" (jkm7680)
05/04/2017 at 20:21, STARS: 0
Pretty much an Explorer, as others have said.
You could probably make your money back in parts even if it can’t be fixed.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/04/2017 at 23:29, STARS: 0
Dave used the Walmarts to fix the Jeep, my problem is I also need a place to store it.
"Kiltedpadre" (kiltedpadre)
05/05/2017 at 00:15, STARS: 0
I think it’s well worth an attempt. Take along a good battery or jump box and see if it will at least try to crank. If you buy it work on the electrical issue before you even consider buying the window motors. If you’re only in it the cost of a battery and alternator before deciding it’s a lost cause you can probably still recoup your initial investment just by stripping off some parts that are selling for decent money online and sending the rest to the salvage yard.
"MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner" (montegoman562)
05/05/2017 at 09:52, STARS: 0
I’d give it a go if I had the cash around.
Remember the shared ford lines though when digging for parts:
Explorer/Mountaineer/Aviator
F-150/Expedition/Navigator
I believe that the Aviator shares the AWD system of the Mountaineer or is just RWD, but if I remember correctly, the Explorer 4x4 system is different from Mountaineer. So some components won’t match in the driveline.
"CalzoneGolem" (calzonegolem)
05/05/2017 at 09:54, STARS: 0
I like this idea.
I’m also going to say flip contingent on being able to start it with a jump pack and not hearing a motor in serious need of repair.
Also I’d try to find 4 used tires because I’m cheap.
"LongbowMkII" (longbowmkii)
05/05/2017 at 10:35, STARS: 0
The real question is why was it only driven short distances before it was parked.
"LongbowMkII" (longbowmkii)
05/05/2017 at 10:36, STARS: 0
Definitely used tires
"CalzoneGolem" (calzonegolem)
05/05/2017 at 10:39, STARS: 1
4 matching used tires > 2 new tires of one type + 2 used tires of another type.
"LongbowMkII" (longbowmkii)
05/05/2017 at 10:40, STARS: 0
A quick wiki search shows that these all came with the 4v 4.6. I know mod motors get a bad rap, but this is a good one. Worth it for the motor alone, assuming it’s not knocking and locking
"hedbutter" (hedbutter)
05/05/2017 at 13:37, STARS: 0
I was just thinking about looking into some projects like this as well. My dad did this when we were growing up to earn some extra cash for his cars, and I like having something to tinker with.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/05/2017 at 15:11, STARS: 0
Yeah, that is my thought. It is something that I have wanted to try for some reason (although we will see after this weekend replacing my steeering rack). Then I come to realize I don’t have the storage space which doesn’t matter because I have no way to get it home lol. Then I start thinking of the nuances of selling. Maybe when I have my own driveway that I can place it on without any time restrictions for its presence I can try this.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/05/2017 at 15:13, STARS: 0
Part of that is just my personal feeling. I wouldn’t want to sell something on crap tires because if it fails and they crash I would feel bad. If I was just getting rid of it as a mechanics special, that is a different story.
I know it doesn’t matter in the end, but I am just weird like that.
I am just concerned why the tires have gone flat, they shouldn’t do that unless it has been sitting a while or there is a leak.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/05/2017 at 15:14, STARS: 0
Didn’t think about the jump box. And yes, the electrical would make or break this sort of thing. Everything else is relatively cheap and minor, but adds no value to the sale price.
"CalzoneGolem" (calzonegolem)
05/05/2017 at 15:14, STARS: 0
Fair enough but used tires aren’t necessarily crap. I would never buy a car that had mismatched tires.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/05/2017 at 15:16, STARS: 1
Oh yeah, Mercury existed back then.
The Aviator was advertised as having an AWD option, not 4WD, so the Mountaineer system would probably be the one used.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/05/2017 at 15:19, STARS: 0
indeed, the only consideration would be a 2WD car and they were matched on the axle (i.e. not different between lefts and rights). Even then that can be a bit sketch.
I only say that because technically that is what my dad did to my his car because he didn’t think it would last nearly 10 years. I have rectified that issue though.
"Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs" (yowen)
05/05/2017 at 15:31, STARS: 0
There are used tire places that can sell you matching tires. I’ve done it on previous cars.
"Yowen - not necessarily not spaghetti and meatballs" (yowen)
05/05/2017 at 15:33, STARS: 0
I’m a big fan of this idea! I now also know that used Aviators are a rarity in my area. On a nationwide search I was able to find a few sub 100k examples for around $10k, haha. Still seems like a lot of moolah for a fancy Explorer. I do like the look of them a whole lot more than the Explorer though.
"MontegoMan562 is a Capri RS Owner" (montegoman562)
05/05/2017 at 15:48, STARS: 1
MERCURY IS LIFE, MERCURY IS FOREVER
Now that I’ve gotten that out of me. Yeah I would say the Mountaineer system would be the one to target. If you go junk yard picking, target Mountaineer’s.
"E92M3" (E46M3)
05/05/2017 at 17:48, STARS: 0
Go look at it. Sounds like it could just be a starter. Take a set of jumper cables, and try the “hit the starter with a hammer” trick. If it turns over, but won’t run I wouldn’t bother with it.
"bwp240" (bwp240)
05/05/2017 at 18:09, STARS: 0
From the description it sounds like it runs, but after a short distance the battery is drained and the motor shuts off. How would that be caused by the starter?
"E92M3" (E46M3)
05/05/2017 at 19:38, STARS: 0
He said “cannot be jumped, I tried it”. That’s what makes me think it doesn’t start at all.