by "Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
Published 03/13/2017 at 22:52
by "Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
Published 03/13/2017 at 22:52
Tags: Thoughts
STARS: 1
I’ll keep saying it, the best production performance cars in history are going to hit the market between 2018 and 2024 (with 2019-2021 being the best). Right now we have a Superhandling Renaissance occurring, that’s why I want to say the Huracan Performante is simply the first in a loooong wave of cars that will take out the Hybrid Hypercars for a third of the price with 2/3 of the power.
I’ve already made my opinion known about how the 918, P1, and LaFerrari didn’t even need the hybrid tech to get the same performance. Now I will say that every Hyper-handling Car and Super-handling Car — I am going to distinguish this breed from Hypercars and Supercars through the word “handling” — will be like the P1 or LaFerrari in terms of how they use their hybrid systems. Pretty much we are talking about these cars being all crazy engine and the hybrid system is nothing but an assist to keep the motor up. However, let me make it clear that I believe the 918 is nearly a decade ahead in terms of its integrated powertrain and completely held back by the tech available at the time. It will be around 2023 when we realize just how substantial the 918 was and it unanimously joins the similar lists as the McLaren F1 or Saleen S7 in terms of refined performance exceeding its time ahead of age.
* Let me note that a superhandling car is a supercar that laps like a hypercar. So a hyperhandling car will be a hypercar that handles well past the current hypercar metric. A new breed. I’ll expand on this nomenclature in another post.
Now that Ive hopefully covered my butt, let’s get back to what’s going to happen next. The clock “officially” started when the Huracan Performante posted its time (and it doesn’t matter how that time was arrived at because lap times are irrelevant anyways unless you like said car). But let me give you an idea of some cars appearing by the end of the decade that will break 7 minutes outside of the manufacturer’s hands:
6:50 to 6:59
McLaren 720S
Porsche 991.2 GT3 RS
Nissan GT-R Nismo RS (or special edition if Nissan decides).
Lamborghini Huracan Performante (though I think it’s a 6:56 car).
McLaren 570S higher performance successor (there’s room now).
Lamborghini Aventador S higher performance successor.
Dodge Viper ACR (this was the first of the next generation Superhandling cars)
Ford GT
Corvette ZR-1 (this will be the fastest of the bunch).
*The Koenigsegg Regera is likely in this group somewhere.
6:40 to 6:49
Ferrari 488 higher performance variant (if it’s slower then Ferrari will have a lot of issues).
Porsche 991.2 GT2 RS
McLaren 720S higher performance variant
*This will be an awesome sequel
6:30 to 6:39
Koenigsegg Agera One:1
Aston Martin Valkyrie
6:20 to 6:29
Mercedes-AMG Project One (I think this will be a huge deal).
So what are the big differences that will allow these cars to be so fast even though many are between 600 hp and 900 hp which is less than the hypercars?
Transmissions and electronics, we dont give these two things enough credit. Even in everyday cars these two things are the reason everything accelerates so much faster. Then you look at how crazy engines have gotten. Seriously, take a second look at how much power is coming out of the NA 4-cyl market you avoid like the plague and you’ll notice that the turbochargers add almost no horsepower, it’s all torque.
Next is tires. They were behind the curve when automakers decided all engines would begin making stupid, ridiculous, excessive amounts of torque constantly across the full range. I look at the 660 hp Ferrari Enzo and chuckle about how 484 lb-ft is no longer that impressive of a feat even for an NA engine. I mean a Camaro SS is an air filter and two stickers away from matching that! I have to assume tire manufacturers were thrown off by this and have now caught up mostly due to the fact that consumers don’t seem to care at all about tire wear or pricing right now. In fact I bet most people will spend more on tires within the first 50,000 miles than they ever would for any repairs outside of warranty. Whooo!
Then don’t forget brakes, suspension, and a far better understanding of making these cars steer well finally. Driver’s are more confident right out the gate which allows for more focused and faster times.
Of course all of this is me just making stuff up, however I still think by 2022 we will have production cars entering the 6:10 to 6:19 range and so many vehicles (especially a new segment of “hypersedans”) under 7 minutes that when the SUVs break 7:20 they will still be seen as nearly a minute off the times that “matter.”
It’s going to be a great few years, Oppo. But after this we will have a bit of an Ice Age in terms of relentless excitement because cars will become technology officially and there is an awkward transition in there. Plus science needs to finish inventing magic, it’s close though!
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"Axial" (axial)
03/13/2017 at 22:52, STARS: 0
I think by 2022, we’ll be entering the era of the Electric Hypercar.
"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
03/13/2017 at 23:02, STARS: 0
They’ll definitely be around but they aren’t replacing anything. The real next step is with plug-in hybrids, a perfect mix of combustion and electrification. Not plain old hybrids, not all engine, and not all electric. That’s why I say the 918 was ahead of its tech by just over a decade and I think the automakers, in all their infinite resources and billions of dollars of research, know this. That’s why everyone has been more and more lazy about creating all electric vehicles. Remember when everyone said they would respond to Tesla back in 2012? Something is being projected in the market and that something has made every automaker start giving the line, “not before 2025.”
"tromoly" (tromoly)
03/13/2017 at 23:24, STARS: 0
Only hypercar to reach your goals is the Enviate Hypercar.
"Axial" (axial)
03/13/2017 at 23:29, STARS: 0
I do not think they’ve been getting lazier about electric vehicles; if anything, they’ve been stepping it up. The only things providing a negative stimulus are cheap gasoline and, in the USA, an administration more favorable to maintaining the status quo. At the end of the day, the 918 is basically a Prius turned up to 11. It’s neat, but it was old news before it even came out; the Jaguar CX-75 was more advanced with its purely electric drive train.
And now we’ve got companies like Rimac prepping themselves to leapfrog over the establishment, with more brands throwing their hats into the all-electric ring at one time more than ever before.
"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
03/13/2017 at 23:32, STARS: 0
Give it time, these cars are going to seemingly come from no where and just never end for the next 5 years. I’m telling everyone to save their money because whatever is out now will be beaten two to three months later.
"tromoly" (tromoly)
03/13/2017 at 23:38, STARS: 0
Look at faster lap times, all the cars have less power but are much, much lighter. If hypercars drop lots of weight they could do it, but at that point they become GT3 cars.
Come to think of it, no one buying these cars will track them, they’d buy a GT3 seat instead, so really on-track performance doesn’t matter.
"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
03/13/2017 at 23:42, STARS: 0
I think in the short and part of the medium term that electric cars are phenomenal, however it will become apparent they were as much a loss as they were at the turn of last century. That leapfrogging happened right now which is why every startup is building and attempting to cash in before the turn of the decade. You must have noticed the pace of these electric car companies has become frantic and I think it’s because everyone is seeing that the window will be closing quickly. In all honesty, I think even Tesla will be selling the automotive portion of its company after the Model 3 hits market and is hopefully extremely successful. I’m also betting Ford is setting itself up as much as Tesla Motors for the sale.
"Carbon Fiber Sasquatch" (turbopumpkin)
03/13/2017 at 23:42, STARS: 0
What happens in 7 years that kills the super/hypercar?
"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
03/14/2017 at 00:12, STARS: 0
I think there is a major shift to cars becoming technology. I’ll have to write a post on that as well since it’s a lot. The short version is that cars will be completely changing their powertrains and switching from the peak of the performance the have cultivated for decades to the beginning of the next era which involves cars using engines as well as electric motors. There is also all the connectivity, all the information and data vehicles will be getting on their drivers and a lot of “behind the curtain” stuff that will be placed at the forefront. Plus I’m expecting a lot of extremely negative political, economic, and social issues to arise on top of all this and come to a boil in 7 years.
Pretty much imagine right now is 1967 instead of 2017. Everything has been a morphed mirror of 50 years ago and I think everything will be more exaggerated as far as highs and lows. But we are entering the best part of this time span for sure.
"DipodomysDeserti" (dipodomysdeserti)
03/14/2017 at 00:20, STARS: 0
Nuclear war.
"Twinpowermeansoneturbo" (twinpower)
03/14/2017 at 00:29, STARS: 0
I don’t buy the Performante’s lap time. There’s no way it was THAT much faster than the 918.
"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
03/14/2017 at 00:35, STARS: 1
I think once more vehicles enter the market and create better context then that Huracan will actually be one of the slower vehicles. I think the limits on the Hypercar Trio and electric supercars are already being reached while these new generation gas vehicles are simply taking advantage of the fact that tires, brakes, construction, handling, suspension, center of gravity, and every other traditional engineering feat can be applied and perfected. What we are really seeing is the pinnacle of the old guard pushing out as the new guard finds out it came a bit quicker than the technology could move.
"Axial" (axial)
03/14/2017 at 00:55, STARS: 0
Electric is here for the long-haul; unlike the 1900s, current battery technology is already up to the task. The only major remaining hurdle is being able to charge the pack in the same amount of time it takes to fill the average tank, and that’s only a big deal for the longest range trips. That problem is being worked fervently. For anybody needing a car that can go 200 miles round-trip, it’s a non-issue today.
If Tesla sells its automotive component, it’s not going to be because electric is a losing proposition; it’s going to be because they’ve dug themselves into a financial hole by spending capital at an unholy rate while relying on subsidies to stay afloat rather than sales.
"bhtooefr" (bhtooefr)
03/14/2017 at 06:50, STARS: 0
I’m trying to think of why there’d actually be an EV bubble that bursts and everyone goes back towards ICE , in the midst of worldwide EV policies right now.
Range and speed are a hell of a lot better than the 1900s-1920s EVs - 100 miles of range at 25 mph was a big deal back then, and they usually didn’t go over 25, when a Model T did 40-45. Nowadays, anything less than 200 miles is considered short range, and in the US market, with the exception of one model (the i-MiEV), every electric car is capable of breaking the speed limit in every jurisdiction, including Texas (and the i-MiEV’s only 5 mph short of that). (I’m obviously not including LSVs like the Renault Twizy Nissan New Mobility Concept and the Polaris GEM, those are in a class that’s restricted to 25 mph.)
Do I think there’ll be PHEVs? Yes. Do I think everyone will have one? Maybe in the US, where we may well have 4 to 8 years of vehement opposition to publicly funded charging infrastructure programs, but in the rest of the world (keeping in mind that at the end of that 8 years, there’ll be some European countries that intend to ban ICE by then)?
"Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
03/14/2017 at 07:15, STARS: 0
I’m just not seeing how BEV will create the income streams and jobs needed to replace fueling. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we find out more automotive execs believe fuel cells are the next move. They just make too much sense and show too much promise for keeping the same revenue, jobs, pay, and all other infrastructure components while delivering the needed benefits. I really do believe that most manufacturers are doing everything they can to stretch the time for fuel cells to catch up. I understand many places will want to be all electric within the city limits and PHEVs will mitigate that transition period.
I dont think ICE is going backwards, in fact I think they are extremely close to closing the gap BEVs presented outside of zero emissions at all times. I’m not saying BEV won’t always be around and remain significant in many markets, but I’m personally projecting that we will see electric integration into ICE components followed by a surge of standardized plug-in hybrids and into fuel cells while BEV companies pop up in order to take advantage of investors that aren’t looking past the medium term.
I hate to say it but I think BEV will end up with a growing bad taste for investors and thats the bubble I’m looking at. I’ll have to really sit down and write my thoughts out better. There is a lot going on together and I’m not great at typing these types of things. Has nothing to do with which tech is “best” and everything to do with the people behind each.
"bryan40oop" (bryan40oop)
03/14/2017 at 07:48, STARS: 0
Basically, time marches on.
"bhtooefr" (bhtooefr)
03/14/2017 at 09:34, STARS: 0
Who says that the existing business models of vehicle fueling have to be preserved, though? That said, some fuel station chains (Sheetz comes to mind) are actually welcoming BEVs - the stations don’t make money on gasoline, they use it to get you into the convenience store. A BEV will be at the convenience store for longer, and may drive more sales. (However, home charging will, yes, reduce the time spent at a fueling station overall.)
And, it’ll be horrific for our environment if BEVs are killed purely to preserve oil company profits. Also, this gets into part of why I want to see universal basic income - there are a lot of jobs that are actively detrimental to society, but are preserved because our economy doesn’t have tools to handle high percentages of unemployment or underemployment.
Also, fuel cells are horrifically inefficient, to the point that an ICE burning natural gas is more efficient than steam reforming that natural gas into hydrogen, and then running that hydrogen through a fuel cell. Emissions performance is better, but...
As far as the emissions, one consideration is that a solar or wind powered EV really does have absurdly low emissions, whereas an ICE needs insanely expensive aftertreatment to reduce emissions to an acceptable level, especially if it’s a more efficient one - lean burn requires NOx aftertreatment, direct injection requires particulate filtration, and from what we’ve seen on diesels, these technologies are horrifically unreliable and expensive to fix when they break. You can leave some efficiency on the table and run port injection, but then you’ve left efficiency on the table.
"Saf1" (safone)
03/31/2017 at 23:03, STARS: 1
The lower weight is key; the track has 127 corners. Also so far of all the recent supercar runs only Lambo has released the lap data to the public