by "Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
Published 02/19/2017 at 13:59
by "Wobbles the Mind" (wobblesthemind)
Published 02/19/2017 at 13:59
Tags: Fuel for Thought
STARS: 0
We are definitely heading in a global direction that wishes to diversify the automotive fuel market rather than create a new standard. I kind of tossed out the first eight-ish dedicated forms that I see viability in (for now or in the future). What do you think the future fuel mix will look like in the automotive world?
Diesel:
Regular/Premium/Super Unleaded Petrol:
Flex Fuel:
Ethanol/Bio Fuel:
Natural Gas:
Plug-in Full Hybrid:
All Electric:
Hydrogen:
Others:
Just toss some random percents in. You can do consumer market, commercial market, current market shares, 2025 market shares, 2050 market shares, just have at it. This is just for my own curiosity.
"MyJeepGetsStuckInTheSnow" (myjeepgetsstuckinthesnow)
02/19/2017 at 14:34, STARS: 1
100% electric for passenger vehicles
"Vítor" (vitorcesar)
02/19/2017 at 14:36, STARS: 0
I’d guess 2025 won’t be much different than today, with exception of diesel probably shrinking more significantly and petrol slowing decreasing, since it will lose sales to electric and hybrids but will also gain parts of the market share that was once from diesel.
Corn ethanol doesn’t have much benefits to increase significantly, and the cleaner sugarcane ethanol doesn’t make much financial sense outside of Latin America, due to climate/land reasons.
Hydrogen will probably stay niche due to infrastructure reasons
"dogisbadob" (dogisbadob)
02/19/2017 at 14:38, STARS: 0
50% gasoline “petrol” (including flex-fuel, dual-fuel CNG, etc) anything with an engine that can run on gasoline and no other motor along with it
15% hybrids and “mostly electric” cars (like the Volt and i3/i8), cars with both an engine that can run on gasoline (or diesel) and an electric motor
10% electric cars (that do not have any kind of liquid-fueled engine) (i3 without the range-extender, Leaf, Tesla, etc)
20% diesel (cars in Europe, plus the trucks and shit worldwide). Biodiesel counts towards the diesel
Less than 5% everything else and no way to expand the viability of these (very limited coverage, budget cuts to infrasuctrure, etc)
"LOREM IPSUM" (lorem---ipsum)
02/19/2017 at 14:40, STARS: 0
We need to get back to clean burning hemp based ethanol.
"Urambo Tauro" (urambotauro)
02/19/2017 at 14:45, STARS: 0
Oh, I couldn’t begin to guess to what extent fossil fuels will continue to be used. We’ll always need petroleum for lubricants, but as far as fuels go, a lot depends on whether e-power will take off in other applications, like farming, construction, lawn & garden, etc. Heck, a lot of these things still use carburetors...
But I still think EVs are nevertheless going to be big. There’s going to have to be a better infrastructure for it, of course. But the neat thing about electricity is that you can make it out of anything: petroleum, coal, nuclear, dams, wind, solar... Whatever we happen to have an abundance of can be used to generate electricity.
Ultimately, it will be all about money, though. Whatever’s cheapest for the manufacturers and stands to make them the most profit, even if that means government incentives.
"MyJeepGetsStuckInTheSnow" (myjeepgetsstuckinthesnow)
02/19/2017 at 15:01, STARS: 0
Put your bong down and come back to reality. The issue is emissions from burning anything. Wind/solar to electric is cleaner than your hippy dreams of hemp becoming a thing again.
"LOREM IPSUM" (lorem---ipsum)
02/19/2017 at 17:01, STARS: 0
Burning ethanol creates CO2. The plants required to produce fuel consume CO2 and create breathable oxygen. Closed loop, good for the environment, and us.
Plus the fuel could be a 100% domestically produced product, based on a non food source crop, which could be replanted year after year without the need to rotate fields. The crop would not require heavy metal based fertilizers, either. There is a ton of energy in ethanol, and it burns as cleanly as anything we have access to.
Wind and solar are great if your country is the size of Rhode Island. Good luck on deploying and relying on it for all of your needs though.
My straight piped e38 doesn’t exactly scream Hippie, either, fwiw.
"EngineerWithTools" (engineerwithtools)
02/19/2017 at 17:16, STARS: 0
If battery tech advances just a little, I think passenger vehicles could be 50% electric by 2025. No data, just a guess.
Heavy trucks, and farm and construction equipment will need orders of magnitude-scale jumps in battery tech to become full electric. They simply require too much energy, too continuously (few opportunities for energy recovery). For example: Given than an electric powertrain is 4x as efficient as a diesel one, with today’s tech, a 250-gallon-equivalent (of usable energy) battery pack would weigh 30,000+ lbs. I don’t see a huge jump coming soon, so for the heavy commercial market? <1% in 2025.
Hydrogen could be wonderful - internal combustion fun but with ZERO carbon emissions, but alas the infrastructure challenges are huge, and I don’t see any serious plans to overcome them. 5% in 2025, limited to point A-to-A fleet operation.
What about the other hydrocarbon based fuels? Some are easy to deal with today (bio fuels), some are hard (liquid natural gas), some make sense when compared to today’s normals (CNG in trucks is growing and has a lot of potential), many don’t make sense (particularly against our now-very-clean and efficient gasoline engines), ALL produce carbon emissions and always will. So I think that, long term, these fuels stay helpful-at-the-margins, but are stuck at <25%.
"MyJeepGetsStuckInTheSnow" (myjeepgetsstuckinthesnow)
02/19/2017 at 18:37, STARS: 0
Not closed loop. Plants don’t plant and harvest themselves. The fermentation plant to process the crop needs energy too.
"bhtooefr" (bhtooefr)
02/19/2017 at 20:12, STARS: 0
When I say “BEV200+”, I’m referring to a battery electric vehicle with at least 200 miles of EPA range. Similarly, PHEV25 means a 25 mile electric range plug-in hybrid.
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
15% BEV200+
5% short range BEV
25% PHEV25-50, gasoline-fueled
5% natural gas
0.1% diesel
Remainder gasoline, with some vehicles being flex-fuel capable, hybridized to various extents
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
35% BEV200+
15% short range BEV
35% PHEV10-50, gasoline-fueled
5% diesel
5% gasoline, hybridized to various extents
5% natural gas
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
25% diesel, hybridized to various extents
40% natural gas, hybridized to various extents
20% gasoline, only rarely hybridized
Remainder a mix of BEVs and gasoline-fueled PHEVs
I’m that bullish on the European market abandoning internal combustion, largely because I think they will be able to force things like that through, the European market generally is more responsive to pressure being applied on it through tax policy. I think they’ll have to backpedal a little, and allow PHEVs through, and I’m not sure that outright bans on internal combustion will work... but I think they’ll get most of the way to their goal.
Natural gas, I see as taking off big time, especially in the commercial sector, and I see some more cars taking advantage of it as a cheap fuel. Gutted environmental protection in the US will make it even cheaper than it already is to frack, whereas subsidies on it to encourage commercial vehicles to switch to it in Europe will make it dirt cheap there. Note that while there are huge emissions benefits from NGVs (much cleaner combustion), and huge cost benefits compared to making a diesel compliant, and I see that as the primary reason for NGV adoption in the European commercial sector, I actually think that that won’t be much of a consideration in non-CARB-states.
A lot of the US market’s electrification will actually be a matter of the automakers having to do it for the rest of the world, and driving costs down anyway. People like the EV driving experience, the convenience of not having to drive to a fueling station, the ability to preheat or precool the cabin, and the reduced maintenance. And, I’m not sure that the subsidies will expire, although they may be restricted to vehicles produced in the US.
Diesel will basically die for the US consumer market - while a likely rollback of emissions standards will help it, there’s also a decade of reputation damage it’s taken from the effects of unreliable emissions controls, and there’s the whole very visible Volkswagen scandal. The question will be, even if there’s a complete elimination of the EPA, will automakers roll back to 1980s or 1990s diesel technology for as few as 37 states, many of them being lower population? (And, will more states adopt CARB standards if the EPA is eliminated?)
Also, note that I’ve not listed fuel cells anywhere - they’re not a cost-effective technology at any stage of the process. I actually suspect that Nikola Motors is going to fail if they don’t figure out an alternative...
Finally, I do wonder where butanol will fit into this - if it takes off, I’d expect to see it mixed in with gasoline - and it’s more compatible with gasoline fuel systems than ethanol is, so it may actually not require flex fuel models. Biomass to liquid synthetic gasoline may be a thing, too.
"LOREM IPSUM" (lorem---ipsum)
02/19/2017 at 20:18, STARS: 0
Most of which can be run on... you guessed it... ethanol.
"Dogsatemypants" (kb113400)
02/19/2017 at 21:56, STARS: 0
Mr.Fusion. Garbage power ftw.
"MyJeepGetsStuckInTheSnow" (myjeepgetsstuckinthesnow)
02/19/2017 at 23:14, STARS: 0
Can be but won’t be. Running agricultural equipment is all about low cost of operation. Diesel is cheaper to use. Natural gas would be used for the power plant to run the fermentation plant because it is cheap. Glycerin is a bettter option than ethanol.
"Insert Edgy Username Here" (billy-d)
02/20/2017 at 18:41, STARS: 1
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
49% petrol, including dual gas/E85 and dual gas/CNG
24% all-electric
20% hybrid and PHEV
3% pure CNG/LPG
3% diesel
1% hydrogen
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
24% petrol, including gas/E85 and gas/CNG
26% diesel
19% pure CNG/LPG
21% hybrid and PHEV
9.9% all-electric
0.1% hydrogen
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
35% petrol, including gas/E85 and gas/CNG
34% all-electric
20% hybrid and PHEV
6% diesel
4.8% pure CNG/LPG
0.2% hydrogen
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
21% petrol, including gas/E85 and gas/CNG
20% diesel
21% pure CNG/LPG
20% all-electric
18% hybrid and PHEV
0% hydrogen
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
51% petrol, including gas/E85 and gas/CNG
12% pure CNG/LPG
20% hybrid and PHEV
5% all-electric
10% diesel
1% hydrogen
!!! UNKNOWN CONTENT TYPE !!!
39.75% petrol, including gas/E85 and gas/CNG
38.75% diesel
10% pure CNG/LPG
10% hybrid and PHEV
1% all-electric
0.5% hydrogen